“Firepower” will determine the fate of the war in Ukraine

According to him, these casualties and equipment losses will largely determine the “long-term sustainability” of the Russian and Ukrainian forces.

The conflict is now “much more defined by the heavy use of artillery and firepower,” says Kofman, who directs the Russia Studies Program at the CNA Institute, based in Virginia, US.

Since April, the Kremlin has focused on capturing the Donbass – an industrial region of eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

“Where Russian forces have advanced, their advances have been gradual,” says Kofman.

His comments follow an assessment by the Canadian Forces Intelligence Command, released on July 22, which said that, “due to significant losses of personnel and equipment, Russia may no longer have the military capacity to realize its ambitions in Ukraine”.

Richard Moore, head of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service – known as MI6 – said on July 21 that Moscow’s forces are likely to begin an operational pause in Ukraine. According to him, the Russian army will find it increasingly difficult to supply manpower in the coming weeks.

Despite these assessments, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on July 20 that Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine now go far beyond the eastern Donbass region, including some land in the south and “a number of other territories.”

Lavrov has said that Russia’s new territorial ambitions have been fueled by the course of the war. In the early stages of the invasion, Russia attempted to occupy most of southern Ukraine, as well as the capital Kiev, but failed.

Ukrainian authorities have said that Russia — from the time it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 to July 23 — has lost more than 39,240 soldiers and officers. The Russian Defense Ministry last published casualty figures at the end of March, saying that 1,351 of its soldiers had been killed.

To bolster its ranks, Russia is using private military contractor Wagner, British military intelligence said on July 18.

Britain’s Ministry of Defense has said that Wagner is lowering recruitment standards and hiring convicts and previously blacklisted individuals – which could also be affecting the effectiveness of the Russian military.

In addition to Wagner’s contractors, the Russian military also relies on volunteer and reserve battalions, due to the lack of infantry, Kofman says. According to him, these troops are now increasingly fighting with less lethal Soviet-era equipment, such as T-80BV tanks.

“Russia still has plenty of equipment in storage. This is true. But, it has taken a significant step back in terms of quality and technological level, compared to what it had when the war started. The issue of destruction is important. “I think it’s fair to say that, in the main categories, they’ve lost 30 percent of their active armor,” says Kofman.

Military casualties are also a “challenge” for Ukraine, he adds.

“It is not the same challenge. But there is a similar long-term challenge for Ukraine, to avoid the degradation of the force. Because, it is clear that while the war continues, Ukraine also loses a number of its best units, which it is then forced to replace with mobilized personnel and individuals who have limited basic training,” says Kofman.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on July 22 that Ukraine’s military lost 100 to 200 soldiers a day in May and June, but that number has now dropped to about 30. killed and about 250 injured every day.

Zelensky has said that Western weapons, especially longer-range missiles, such as HIMARS, which Ukraine has positioned in recent weeks, have helped stabilize the situation in Donbas.

“I think HIMARS will help Ukraine to have some kind of parity with Russian artillery and it will create big problems for the Russian military,” says Kofman.
HIMARS has a longer range and is more accurate than the Soviet-era artillery that Ukraine has had in its arsenal.

Ukrainian officials have said that the positioning of these weapons is important for pushing back Russian troops and striking their supply lines.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on July 20 that the United States will send four more HIMARS weapons to Ukraine. The pledge came a day after a request by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, who said that Kiev forces had used these weapons to destroy about 30 Russian command posts and ammunition depots.

The four additional HIMARS will bring the total number of HIMARS deployed by the United States to 16.

“I think the challenge for the Russian army will be if Ukraine uses more and more weapons like HIMARS to target Russian ammunition depots. It will not matter whether Russia has large quantities of ammunition or not, because it will not be able to take them to the battlefield,” says Kofman.

According to him, Russia’s opportunities to oppose HIMARS tanks are minimal.
HIMARS launch missiles that can hit targets up to 80 kilometers away – a distance that exceeds that of most Russian artillery./REL

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