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The French have just confirmed Emmanuel Macron in office by a large majority (58.5 percent).
However, just a few weeks after the election, it is seen that many citizens are reluctant to trust the president and do not want him to have all the power in the country. According to a poll just published by the ifop institute, the left will win the first round of parliamentary elections in June by 28 per cent. In second and third place are President Macron’s “Renaissance” Alliance and Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party.
Without a necessary parliamentary majority, President Macron must forget his reform agenda. The reorganization of the pension system with the increase of the retirement age to 65 years can not be realized. “Macron would then once again take over the symbolic function of president and try to influence certain processes as much as possible,” said expert Emmanuel Droit, a professor at the University of Sciences in Strasbourg, describing the possible consequences of a cohabitation. such with a parliamentary majority from the opposing political camp. “In this constellation of forces, his power would be very limited.”
Democracy in crisis
But not even a clear opposition majority in the first round would guarantee a change of government, because elections in 577 constituencies are based on the majority system. If no candidate receives a 50% majority in the first round, a runoff must be held between the first two candidates. This makes it difficult to predict the outcome.
Macron and Melenchon
Both the Rassemblement National and the left-wing populists from La France Insoumise (LFI) around Jean-Luc Mélenchon are currently trying to take advantage of Macron’s reservations and turn the parliamentary election into a “third vote”. In two presidential elections in April, the leaders of these parties finished in second and third place after Macron. While the Socialists and Conservatives, who have been in power for decades, have not even managed to get into parliament because they have failed to cross the electoral threshold of five percent.
Only left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon has a chance of becoming prime minister. Although Marine Le Pen won more than 13 million votes in the run-off presidential election, RN’s June election prospects are weaker, among other things due to a lack of suitable candidates. Interim party leader Jordan Bardella presented modest goals this week. According to him, even entering the National Assembly with a parliamentary group of at least 15 deputies would be a success – the party currently has only five other seats in parliament in addition to that of Marine Le Pen.
Historical Left Alliance
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the other hand, has achieved great political success. Critics of the EU and Germany have formed the electoral alliance “Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale” (NUPE) with the Socialists, Communists and the Greens. A project that was considered utopian just a few weeks ago.
The “New Union of the People” runs with only one candidate in each of the 577 constituencies, so that the parties do not snatch votes from each other. Mélenchon himself never tires of announcing himself as the next prime minister, who promises a radical change in domestic and foreign policy. Mélenchon opposes constructive cooperation between France and the EU. The relationship with Berlin would also be targeted, as Mélenchon considers the Franco-German tandem completely obsolete.
Political scientist Droit currently sees a political dynamic in favor of Mélenchon, which will mobilize numerous left-wing voters. A novelty in the history of the Fifth Republic, because so far many supporters of possible candidates have stayed away from the polling stations in the parliamentary elections, after the eventual loss of their parties in the presidential elections. In the past, this behavior also provided the president with the majority needed in the National Assembly to govern.
Difficult predictions
Despite the popularity of the left, polls do not predict it will have the majority needed to form a government. Mélenchon could win from 135 to 165 seats, according to analysis by the OpinionWay institute. Macron’s alliance, on the other hand, would defend the parliamentary majority, despite much criticism, with 310 to 350 seats, according to opinion polls.
Political expert Emmanuel Droit also expects Macron to take a majority in parliament for his second term. According to the constitution, the majority system means that the moderate political offer ultimately prevails: “Jean-Luc Mélenchon says that the French can retire at the age of 60. But people know this is not feasible. “Even his foreign policy program, with massive criticism of the EU and proximity to autocratic states, is facing reservations.”
Does France need a change in the electoral system?
In day-to-day politics, with Macron’s vast majority, Parliament would probably not take on the role of correcting the president’s policy for the next five years – despite strong resistance to Macron’s program. “We have a crisis of representative democracy in France,” Emmanuel Droit complained in an interview with DW.
“Parties and unions no longer fulfill their duty as political mediators. And that is why many politicians – not only from the ranks of the RN and LFI, but also in the president’s camp – are calling for electoral law reform. “A possible solution would be a proportional electoral system.”
Hot autumn
Macron promised a “dose of proportional representation” after his first election as president. He repeated this in the current election campaign. The pressure on the president on this issue is great, but a quick decision is not expected. On the other hand, it seems predictable that the political opposition after the movement of the yellow jackets three and a half years ago will be formed again on the streets, even in Macron’s second term. Emmanuel Droit: “Unfortunately, this is what we should be afraid of in the fall. For many French people, the road is the last and only way to articulate their goals. People in France see the road as a country of democracy from below. ”/ DW
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