The latest European Union sanctions against Russia, formally approved on July 21, are perhaps the weakest package – so far – from Brussels.
To understand why, you need look no further than other block activities in preparation for what could be a long and cold winter.
The latest package of measures against Russia is the seventh from the EU since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24. But the European Commission, which is responsible for the preparation of EU sanctions, does not refer to this number. He simply describes it as a “continuity package”.
Otherwise, with the new measures, about 50 new items from the chemicals, metals and machinery sector will be sanctioned, while the assets of about 50 other persons and entities will be frozen.
The list, which in total includes close to 1,200 people and 100 entities, now also includes Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, the Kremlin-linked cycling club “Night Wolves”, several politicians, oligarchs and some of their relatives.
Another potentially useful thing is that Brussels will require “self-reporting” of persons listed under sanctions. This means that sanctioned individuals must show their EU-based assets. Failure to do so constitutes a breach of EU regulations and, in principle, becomes subject to national criminal investigations. It is up to each EU member state to check this for itself. The measures, then, can lead to the confiscation of undeclared assets.
The fallout from the nearly month-long negotiations at the beginning of the summer to ban most Russian oil until the end of the year, and especially Hungary’s tough stance on making an exception, has clearly played a role in the EU being more cautious. .
And while Russia’s fiercest opponents, such as the Baltic states and Poland, want to press ahead with more punitive measures, other countries may want to move more slowly.
Any new measure requires unanimity among the 27 EU member states. But in reality, only three major areas remain to be sanctioned: residual oil, nuclear equipment and gas. And targeting each of them may be difficult in the near future.
With electricity prices rising within the European Union, as well as inflation, EU officials – on condition of anonymity – say that Brussels is likely to focus on packages such as this one throughout the winter, and not in something more substantial that would hit the Russian economy.
To target the remaining 10 percent of Russian oil, Hungary and other landlocked Central and Eastern European countries must be convinced.
There may be movement in this direction if the European Commission and Hungary overcome some disagreements about the rule of law, which are blocking billions of EU funds destined for Budapest.
Targeting Russian nuclear equipment and services could also be problematic because, similarly, it would disproportionately affect central and eastern Europe.
However, finding alternative gas supplies can be costly and difficult.
But some have argued that Russian gas – largely used in the EU – should be the next target.
The recent disruption of gas flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for what it said were maintenance purposes was another reminder to Brussels that it needs to diversify its supplies and eliminate its dependence on Moscow.
Therefore, it is not surprising when you see members of the European Commission flying around the world to reach agreements on behalf of the entire EU on alternative energy sources.
The trip of the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to Azerbaijan, at the beginning of this week, should be seen from this point of view. It has agreed on a memorandum of understanding with Baku to expand the Southern Gas Corridor.
Starting next year, this corridor will provide 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year – up from 8 billion, which is the current amount.
Similar agreements have already been signed or are being made with several Gulf states, Algeria, Norway and the United States.
Similar agreements have already been signed or are being made with several Gulf states, Algeria, Norway and the United States.
Therefore, it is not surprising when you see members of the European Commission flying around the world to reach agreements on behalf of the entire EU on alternative energy sources.
The trip of the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to Azerbaijan, at the beginning of this week, should be seen from this point of view. It has agreed on a memorandum of understanding with Baku to expand the Southern Gas Corridor.
Starting next year, this corridor will provide 12 billion cubic meters of gas per year – up from 8 billion, which is the current amount.
Similar agreements have already been signed or are being made with several Gulf states, Algeria, Norway and the United States.
And, in the latest attempt to curb energy consumption, Brussels has proposed a regulation that would set a voluntary gas reduction target of 15% across the bloc between August 1 and March 31. This target may become mandatory in the event of a major gas shortage.
All of this could pave the way for the EU to eventually freeze Russian gas, although that is unlikely to happen this winter.
Meanwhile, we are likely to hear more messages from Brussels, similar to those delivered by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell in his latest blog.
He said that EU citizens should have “strategic patience” when it comes to sanctions, because “it may take a long time for them to have the desired effect”. Russia, he said, “will be forced to choose between butter and guns, suppressing Putin in an evil that is gradually getting worse.”
But the main question is whether Ukraine can have the same patience as the EU.
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