Will German foreign policy change after Merkel? What will she look like with Laschetose with Söder?

“A federal chancellor is expected to have experience in foreign or European policy.” The new leader of the Christian Democratic Party, CDU, Armin Laschet said this in an interview with Reuters, rising above the issue of candidacy for chancellor by his rival. But Markus Söder, the Bavarian prime minister and leader of the Christian Social Party, CSU, responded immediately. He talked for three quarters of an hour with French President Emmanuel Macron and concluded that he had “big deals” with him. The talks focused on joint aviation projects, such as the European Joint Warplane. Because Bavaria is headquartered in several important civil and military aviation enterprises, Söder thus gains points in both foreign and economic policy. Since October, Markus Söder has called for a more active role for Germany in foreign policy.

The growing importance of Germany

This is just one example of how aspirants to the post of chancellor are meanwhile positioned in foreign policy, before it is determined by the end of spring who will run for chancellor from the CDU / CSU Union. Johannes Varwick, professor of international relations at the University of Halle, thinks that the tasks ahead of Söder or Laschet are not easy. “Any follower of a chancellor who has experience in foreign policy for more than a decade and a half and has been tested in a series of crises will have to mature once in this role. On the other hand Germany’s political weight in recent years has increased significantly and no chancellor can fall below the requirements. On the contrary, changing staffs will increase the pressure to take a stand on cardinal matters. “

Armin Laschet with the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens, 02.08.2020

“European” and “white paper”

Armin Laschet has more European political experience, since his biography. He grew up in the Germany-Belgium-Netherlands triangle, early on he developed an awareness of how important European cooperation is. Even in Corona times, Laschet has defended open borders. From 1999-2005 he was a Member of the European Parliament, focusing on foreign policy issues. He has always called for more courage for European integration.

You can not find such a commitment in Markus Söder. Expert Johannes Varwick calls Söder in terms of European foreign policy still “a white paper”. Thorsten Benner, director of the Berlin Institute for Global Public Policy goes even further. Söder has “little or no emotional connection to the European project and will not be intimidated by the opportunistic agitation against Brussels if it helps politics.”

The resurgence of non-zero-price transatlantic relations

Both politicians are more focused on the EU and France than on the US. Recall that Angela Merkel in 2003 as chairwoman of the CDU traveled demonstratively to Washington and supported President Bush in the Iraq war, when a majority of Germans were against, as was Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schröder.

Transatlantic relations over the four years with Trump became difficult. “America has always been for us the land of freedom and democracy,” Armin Laschet said in his speech for the CDU presidency, referring to the Capitol invasion. Söder, on the other hand, said that his love for America was put to a difficult test in four years with Trump. Both place their hopes on the new president, Joe Biden. At the Munich Security Conference, Biden called on partners. “The transatlantic alliance is back.”

But Biden’s approach is not unconditional. He demands, for example, as his predecessor, that partners increase armaments spending and take on more responsibilities in the area of ​​security policy. Söder agrees in principle, but states that “we are not small children. “We are partners, neither vassals nor submissives,” he told the AP a few days ago. Laschet also supports NATO’s goal of having member states spend 2% of its economic defense capacity, at a time when Germany is far from that goal.

Söder: “Balance between interests and values”

An obstacle to the resurgence of transatlantic cooperation could become German policy for China and Russia. Like Trump, Biden is of the opinion that Berlin makes many concessions to both governments due to commercial interests. At this point it will not change much in German politics with both Laschet and Söder. Laschet has spoken of a “systems competition” in which the West is with China. But he does not rule out a involvement of the Huawei concern in building the 5G mobile network, which Washington views with great suspicion. Söder said in a summer interview with ZDF last year that “finding a balance between interests and values ​​is the biggest challenge for German politics in the coming years.” This is not the severity that Washington expects.

Towards Russia, both Laschet and Söder oppose the closure of the Nordstream2 pipeline from Russia to Germany. Laschet wants to separate from the pipeline the assassination attempt against opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whom he strongly condemned. S .der for his part with his visit to Moscow last year, continued the tradition of the Bavarian prime ministers for a Bavarian trade policy with Russia, despite political divisions. Eastern EU countries are quite critical of Berlin’s cautious stance on Moscow.

Armin Laschet in 2014 even praised Russia’s role in the war in Syria. “The Russians have warned the jihadists from the beginning. In our country, this was set aside as propaganda. ” He even showed a kind of understanding for Bashar al-Assad, where a kind of religious diversity was possible, and for Laschet Islamism was much more dangerous than the Assad regime. Some of Laschet’s statements have not been approved by Union circles.

Expert Thorsten Benner expects from both politicians more or less the continuation of Merkel’s course in foreign policy, but according to him, with this they will not go too far soon, due to the obstacles they will encounter. “On the one hand, because Merkel’s course due to the controversy can no longer be continued so simply, on the other hand, because potential coalition partners (especially the Greens) will insist on changing foreign policy, as p .sh. in the direction of China, where Merkel’s one-dimensional foreign policy has hurt Germany. ” Expert Varwick says that “both are professionals who do not yet have a center of importance in foreign policy… and both can be trusted that they will make a good image on the international stage.” / DW /

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