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\n<\/p>\n
Lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment ky\u00e7, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb edhe i rreziksh\u00ebm p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb vend, thot\u00eb ish-drejtori i Agjencis\u00eb Qendrore t\u00eb Inteligjenc\u00ebs (CIA) n\u00eb SHBA, David Petraeus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Duke folur p\u00ebr Radion Evropa e Lir\u00eb, gjenerali amerikan ne pension thot\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme q\u00eb aleat\u00ebt e NATO-s, e sidomos vendet e Evrop\u00ebs Lindore, ta vazhdojn\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen ushtarake p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn. Sipas tij, mposhtja e Rusis\u00eb nga Ukraina nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamundur.<\/p>\n
\u201cUkrainasit e kan\u00eb fituar betej\u00ebn n\u00eb Kiev, e kan\u00eb fituar betej\u00ebn n\u00eb dy qytetet tjera veriore, \u00c7ernihiv dhe Sumi. Ata, n\u00eb fakt, mund t\u2019i mposhtin rus\u00ebt\u201d, thot\u00eb Petraeus, i cili ka komanduar forcat amerikane n\u00eb luft\u00ebrat n\u00eb Irak dhe Afganistan.<\/p>\n
Petraeus shton se forcat ruse kan\u00eb mungesa n\u00eb logjistik\u00eb dhe se kan\u00eb p\u00ebsuar humbje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha.<\/p>\n
Ai e p\u00ebrjashton mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e p\u00ebrfshirjes s\u00eb forcave t\u00eb NATO-s n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb dhe parasheh q\u00eb fundi i luft\u00ebs t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb zgjidhje e negociuar.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse lufta zvarritet, thot\u00eb Petraeus, rreziqet jan\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Por, \u201cun\u00eb jam i prir\u00eb t\u00eb mendoj\u201d se gjasat p\u00ebr p\u00ebrdorimin e arm\u00ebve t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimit n\u00eb mas\u00eb \u201caktualisht jan\u00eb ende t\u00eb ul\u00ebta\u201d, thot\u00eb ai.<\/p>\n
Rusia ka d\u00ebshtuar n\u00eb Kiev<\/strong> David Petraeus:<\/strong> Fillimisht, mendoj se duhet t\u00eb analizojm\u00eb se ku kemi qen\u00eb. Rusia e ka filluar [k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb] duke u p\u00ebrpjekur p\u00ebr t\u00eb rr\u00ebzuar Qeverin\u00eb e [presidentit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, Volodymyr] Zelensky. Q\u00ebllim kryesor i saj ka qen\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb kontrollin e Kievit, t\u00eb rr\u00ebzoj\u00eb Qeverin\u00eb [dhe] ta z\u00ebvend\u00ebsoj\u00eb presidentin Zelensky me nj\u00eb president pro-rus. Ata kan\u00eb arritur fuqish\u00ebm n\u00eb Kiev, me shum\u00eb forca edhe nga Bjellorusia, dhe kan\u00eb d\u00ebshtuar.<\/p>\n Ukraina e ka fituar betej\u00ebn n\u00eb Kiev, po ashtu n\u00eb \u00c7ernihiv n\u00eb veri dhe n\u00eb Sumi n\u00eb verilindje. Por, tani jemi n\u00eb nj\u00eb pozicion t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb tranzicioni. Rus\u00ebt kan\u00eb deklaruar publikisht se k\u00ebto nuk ishin p\u00ebrpjekjet e tyre kryesore, porse ato kan\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb me Donbasin, n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn juglindore t\u00eb vendit. Ata po d\u00ebrgojn\u00eb tani m\u00eb shum\u00eb burime atje.<\/p>\n Rus\u00ebt po p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb marrin komplet Mariupolin, q\u00eb do t\u2019iu mund\u00ebsonte pastaj t\u00eb ktheheshin nga veriu. Dhe, k\u00ebshtu, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb moment i madh. \u00cbsht\u00eb nj\u00eb moment ky\u00e7. \u00cbsht\u00eb, gjithashtu, nj\u00eb moment i rreziksh\u00ebm p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Rus\u00ebt nuk kan\u00eb logjistik\u00eb p\u00ebr \u201cor\u00ebn e art\u00eb\u201d<\/strong> David Petraeus:<\/strong> Nuk mendoj ashtu. Mendoj se rus\u00ebt jan\u00eb mjaft t\u00eb kufizuar n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrijn\u00eb. Themb\u00ebr e Akilit p\u00ebr ta ka qen\u00eb mungesa e logjistik\u00ebs s\u00eb ekspedit\u00ebs. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, kur rus\u00ebt jan\u00eb larg nj\u00eb sistemi hekurudhor ose nj\u00eb porti, logjistika e tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb-shum\u00eb modeste n\u00eb krahasim me logjistik\u00ebn ton\u00eb. Ata m\u00eb s\u00eb shumti mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb \u00e7erekun e asaj q\u00eb kemi ne. Ne kemi nj\u00eb logjistik\u00eb shum\u00eb substanciale t\u00eb ekspedit\u00ebs. Ne mund t\u00eb l\u00ebvizim n\u00eb distanca t\u00eb gjata pa baza fikse. Ata jan\u00eb t\u00eb lidhur p\u00ebr sistemin hekurudhor. Kur jan\u00eb pran\u00eb tij, jan\u00eb shum\u00eb mir\u00eb, por kur i largohen, jan\u00eb krejt\u00ebsisht t\u00eb kufizuar sa u p\u00ebrket ushqimeve, karburanteve, municionit, evakuimit mjek\u00ebsor dhe t\u00eb tjerave. Kjo me siguri se ka ndikim t\u00eb madh n\u00eb moralin [e ushtar\u00ebve].<\/p>\n Ushtar\u00ebt tan\u00eb [amerikan\u00eb] n\u00eb Irak dhe Afganistan e kan\u00eb ditur se n\u00ebse plagosen, brenda nj\u00eb ore \u2013 or\u00ebs s\u00eb art\u00eb \u2013 do t\u00eb transferoheshin n\u00eb spitalin e par\u00eb fushor. Shkalla e tyre e mbijetes\u00ebs ka qen\u00eb mbi 90 p\u00ebr qind. Pra, gjith\u00e7ka ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb me at\u00eb q\u00eb ndodh n\u00eb or\u00ebn e art\u00eb. Por, kjo nuk shihet te forcat ruse.<\/p>\n Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: Pra, mendoni se ukrainasit mund t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb rezistojn\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n David Petraeus:<\/strong> Mendoj se po. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb paksa gar\u00eb dhe varet nga aft\u00ebsia e ukrainasve p\u00ebr t\u00eb l\u00ebvizur me shpejt\u00ebsi n\u00eb jug, p\u00ebr t\u2019u fokusuar n\u00eb at\u00eb q\u00eb vjen nga lindja, nga juglindja, nga Mariupoli. Kjo varet, gjithashtu, edhe nga ajo q\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb ne. Nuk mendoj vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, por n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha vendet e NATO-s s\u00eb bashku, e sidomos ato vende t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs Lindore q\u00eb kan\u00eb mbrojtje ajrore, sisteme p\u00ebr l\u00ebshimin e raketave, artileri dhe municione q\u00eb u p\u00ebrshtaten atyre q\u00eb i ka Ukraina.<\/p>\n Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: Deri m\u00eb tani, aleat\u00ebt e NATO-s e kan\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur ushtarakisht Ukrain\u00ebn, duke mos u p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb direkt n\u00eb konflikt. A mendoni se strategjia e nj\u00ebjt\u00eb do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n David Petraeus:<\/strong> Po. Sekretari i P\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i NATO-s, [Jens] Stoltenberg dhe gjithashtu presidenti [i Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, Joe] Biden dhe lider\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb kan\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar se do t\u00eb ishte me rrezik dhe me shum\u00eb t\u00eb panjohura n\u00ebse \u2013 le t\u00eb themi \u2013 aeroplan\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb dhe rus\u00eb fluturojn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn hap\u00ebsir\u00eb ajrore.<\/p>\n N\u00eb fakt, un\u00eb e di se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodhte, avion\u00ebt rus\u00eb do t\u00eb rr\u00ebzoheshin. Do t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrronim edhe sistemin rus t\u00eb mbrojtjes ajrore. Por, ajo q\u00eb nuk e dim\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb se si do t\u00eb reagonte Rusia.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb kontigjent i ndihm\u00ebs ushtarake amerikane p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn. Janar, 2022.<\/p>\n Mendoj se \u00ebsht\u00eb e arsyeshme q\u00eb dikush q\u00eb ulet n\u00eb krye t\u00eb tavolin\u00ebs s\u00eb K\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Siguris\u00eb Komb\u00ebtare n\u00eb SHBA, ose n\u00eb krye t\u00eb tavolin\u00ebs s\u00eb NATO-s, t\u00eb thot\u00eb se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e rrezikshme, nuk e dim\u00eb se ku p\u00ebrfundon.<\/p>\n Mendoj se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e paarsyeshme t\u00eb thuhet se ukrainasit po luftojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb shum\u00eb efektive, shum\u00eb heroike, me shkatht\u00ebsi, kreativitet, guxim, dhe ajo q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb ne, \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u2019i ndihmojm\u00eb ata. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb lufta e tyre, ata jan\u00eb t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb at\u00eb dhe ata, thjesht, kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr mjete. Vendet e Evrop\u00ebs Lindore duhet t\u2019i pastrojn\u00eb rezervat e tyre t\u00eb mbrojtjes dhe t\u00eb ofrojn\u00eb gjith\u00e7ka q\u00eb kan\u00eb p\u00ebr Ukrain\u00ebn \u2013 kjo do t\u00eb ishte e dobishme.<\/p>\n \u201cNuk mund ta imagjinoj pushtimin e nj\u00eb vendi, ku t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ju urrejn\u00eb\u201d David Petraeus:<\/strong> Mendoj se fundi do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj zgjidhjeje e negociuar. P\u00ebrndryshe, mposhtja e Rusis\u00eb nga Ukraina nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e pamundur. Ukrainasit e kan\u00eb fituar betej\u00ebn n\u00eb Kiev, e kan\u00eb fituar betej\u00ebn n\u00eb dy qytetet tjera veriore, \u00c7ernihiv dhe Sumi. Ata, n\u00eb fakt, mund t\u2019i mposhtin rus\u00ebt. Ajo q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb b\u00ebni fillimisht, \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u2019i ndaloni rus\u00ebt dhe pastaj, thjesht, t\u2019i ndiqni ata, sepse ata jan\u00eb n\u00eb territor armiq\u00ebsor. Rus\u00ebt, padyshim, nuk kan\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetje nga ukrainasit. \u00c7far\u00ebdo q\u00eb t\u00eb ken\u00eb pasur, e kan\u00eb humbur, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb mizorive dhe m\u00ebnyr\u00ebs s\u00eb tmerrshme t\u00eb trajtimit t\u00eb komuniteteve lokale. K\u00ebshtu q\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb i urrejn\u00eb.<\/p>\n Un\u00eb kam pushtuar nj\u00eb vend. Kam qen\u00eb gjeneral me dy yje kur ne [amerikan\u00ebt] kemi pushtuar Irakun. Ata [irakian\u00ebt] na kan\u00eb duartrokitur kur kemi arritur. Ata nuk e kan\u00eb dashur [presidentin e tyre] Saddam Husseinin, djemt\u00eb e tij vras\u00ebs dhe regjimin e tij kleptokratik. Un\u00eb nuk mund ta imagjinoj pushtimin e nj\u00eb vendi, ku t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ju urrejn\u00eb. N\u00ebse ata nuk e kan\u00eb urryer Rusin\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, jam i sigurt q\u00eb tani e urrejn\u00eb, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00ebs s\u00eb tmerrshme t\u00eb trajtimit t\u00eb njer\u00ebzve, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb mizorit\u00eb dhe krimet e luft\u00ebs q\u00eb jan\u00eb kryer n\u00eb Bu\u00e7a. Dhe, jam i sigurt se do t\u00eb gjejm\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr [krime t\u00eb kryera] n\u00eb Mariupol dhe n\u00eb disa qytete t\u00eb tjera, nga t\u00eb cilat po largohen rus\u00ebt.<\/p>\n Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: E, a mund ta imagjinoni p\u00ebrfshirjen e SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, n\u00eb ndonj\u00eb pik\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n David Petraeus:<\/strong> Jo. Jo me forca ushtarake n\u00eb terren. Nuk pres t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb kjo. Un\u00eb mund t\u00eb imagjinoj nj\u00eb lloj OSBE-je [Organizata p\u00ebr Siguri dhe Bashk\u00ebpunim n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb], jo si forc\u00eb paqeruajt\u00ebse, por v\u00ebzhguese, n\u00ebse ka nj\u00eb zgjidhje t\u00eb negociuar. Por, prap\u00eb, ajo q\u00eb mendoj se do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb ukrainasit mund t\u2019i ndalojn\u00eb rus\u00ebt q\u00eb vijn\u00eb nga lindja dhe lart nga Donbasi dhe Mariupoli. \u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur t\u2019i zmbrapsin ata n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra t\u00eb caktuara, ashtu si\u00e7 kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb jasht\u00eb Kievit.<\/p>\n Dhe, mos harroni, Rusia tashm\u00eb ka angazhuar mbi 70 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha forcave q\u00eb ka n\u00eb dispozicion. E dim\u00eb se ajo ka shkuar n\u00eb Gjeorgji, n\u00eb Siri, n\u00eb Afrik\u00eb dhe kudo q\u00eb mund t\u00eb gjej\u00eb mercenar\u00eb, q\u00eb do t\u00eb luftonin. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb e d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar. Dhe, n\u00ebse ky p\u00ebrparim modest q\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb n\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebn Lindore mund t\u00eb ndalet dhe zmbrapset, at\u00ebher\u00eb mendoj se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb shtys\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb zgjidhje t\u00eb negociuar.<\/p>\n Tani, t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt jan\u00eb duke negociuar, por asnj\u00ebra nuk do t\u00eb pajtohet, derisa ekziston nj\u00eb shans p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar m\u00eb shum\u00eb leva n\u00eb fush\u00ebbetej\u00eb.<\/p>\n Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: Si do t\u00eb dukej zgjidhja e negociuar?<\/strong><\/p>\n David Petraeus<\/strong>: I keni par\u00eb disa elemente t\u00eb saj tashm\u00eb. Negociator\u00ebt ukrainas kan\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se do t\u00eb heqin dor\u00eb nga p\u00ebrpjekjet p\u00ebr t\u2019u bashkuar me NATO-n. Ata do t\u00eb kalonin n\u00ebp\u00ebr nj\u00eb proces \u2013 me gjas\u00eb referendum \u2013 sepse ai \u00ebsht\u00eb i nevojsh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndryshuar Kushtetut\u00ebn. Por, nuk do t\u00eb heqin dor\u00eb nga mund\u00ebsia e an\u00ebtar\u00ebsimit n\u00eb Bashkimin Evropian. Ata do t\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulin n\u00eb garantuesit e siguris\u00eb s\u00eb tyre, kan\u00eb p\u00ebrmendur an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e K\u00ebshillit t\u00eb Sigurimit t\u00eb Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara \u2013 jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm tri q\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb kandidate, sepse as Rusia dhe as Kina, me sa duket, nuk do t\u00eb garantonin sovranitetin e Ukrain\u00ebs, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb do t\u00eb duhej t\u00eb ishin: Shtetet e Bashkuara, Britania e Madhe ose Franca.<\/p>\n Pastaj, mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb edhe negociata p\u00ebr Krimen\u00eb [gadishullin ukrainas t\u00eb aneksuar nga Rusia] \u2013 nj\u00eb lloj qiraje 99-vje\u00e7are p\u00ebr 1 dollar n\u00eb vit, ose di\u00e7ka e till\u00eb. Nuk mendoj se Ukraina imagjinon se do ta kthej\u00eb Krimen\u00eb. Donbasi \u00ebsht\u00eb pak m\u00eb ndryshe, mendoj se do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb shohim se si do t\u00eb zhvillohet beteja atje. Por, edhe atje mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje.<\/p>\n Humbja e 15,000 ushtar\u00ebve n\u00eb pes\u00eb jav\u00eb, trondit\u00ebse<\/strong> David Petraeus:<\/strong> Rreziqet jan\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Do t\u00eb ket\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrime t\u00eb vazhdueshme, humbje t\u00eb jet\u00ebve, d\u00ebmtim t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs, \u00e7rregullim t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, \u00e7rregullim t\u00eb sistemit global t\u00eb ushqimeve, sepse 30 deri n\u00eb 35% e eksporteve t\u00eb grurit vijn\u00eb nga Rusia dhe Ukraina. Kan\u00eb pastaj elbin, misrin, nj\u00eb shum\u00ebllojshm\u00ebri metalesh, ka pleh q\u00eb vjen nga Rusia\u2026 Pra, dua t\u00eb them se ndikimi n\u00eb sektor\u00eb t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb globale \u00ebsht\u00eb i madh. N\u00ebse e bojkotoni naft\u00ebn bruto ose gazin natyror nga Rusia, at\u00ebher\u00eb padyshim se ka efekte edhe nga kjo. Por, ato gjithashtu d\u00ebmtojn\u00eb tutje ekonomin\u00eb ruse, e cila do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e pariparueshme.<\/p>\n Pes\u00ebqind kompani amerikane ose jan\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr plot\u00ebsisht, ose i kan\u00eb pezulluar [operacionet] n\u00eb Rusi, ose i kan\u00eb kufizuar. Disa mund t\u00eb kthehen, t\u00eb tjerat do t\u00eb mbeten mbyllur. Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb pozit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb se \u00e7do vend tjet\u00ebr p\u00ebr t\u2019iu b\u00ebr\u00eb ball\u00eb k\u00ebtyre sanksioneve, sepse ka di\u00e7ka p\u00ebr t\u00eb cil\u00ebn pjesa tjet\u00ebr e bot\u00ebs ka v\u00ebrtet nevoj\u00eb: gazin natyror, naft\u00ebn, qymyrin, paladiumin, nikelin, bakrin e t\u00eb tjera. Por, gjithsesi, kjo do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb ndikim t\u00eb madh tek ata q\u00eb kan\u00eb m\u00eb pak fat n\u00eb Rusi. Dhe, me kalimin e koh\u00ebs, kjo mb\u00ebshtetje fillestare p\u00ebr Putinin, mendoj se do t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb. Nuk mund t\u00eb keni 15,000 ushtar\u00eb rus\u00eb, trupat e vdekur t\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebve kthehen n\u00eb qese n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi.<\/p>\n Kjo [shif\u00ebr] \u00ebsht\u00eb s\u00eb paku kat\u00ebrfishi, n\u00ebse jo pes\u00ebfishi i humbjeve q\u00eb kemi p\u00ebsuar ne n\u00eb Irak n\u00eb 20 vjet. Un\u00eb kam qen\u00eb komandant atje. Kemi pasur humbje t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. Nuk mund ta imagjinoj t\u00eb kem humbur 15,000 ushtar\u00eb n\u00eb pes\u00eb jav\u00eb. \u00cbsht\u00eb trondit\u00ebse.<\/p>\n Q\u00ebllimi i Putinit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb realizuar<\/strong> David Petraeus:<\/strong> Jam i sigurt se njer\u00ebzit nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb lumtur t\u2019i raportojn\u00eb Vladimir Putinit lajme t\u00eb k\u00ebqija. Por, ato nuk mund t\u00eb mohohen, po ndodhin. Ai [Putin] e di se cili ka qen\u00eb q\u00ebllimi fillestar i fushat\u00ebs \u2013 rr\u00ebzimi i Qeveris\u00eb [ukrainase] dhe z\u00ebvend\u00ebsimi i Zelenskyt me nj\u00eb lider pro-rus. Kjo nuk ka ndodhur dhe nuk do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb. Rusia po i t\u00ebrheq forcat nga Kievi, \u00c7ernihivi dhe Sumi. Ajo ka shifra marramend\u00ebse t\u00eb humbjeve. K\u00ebt\u00eb nuk mund t\u2019ia sillni rrotull Putinit p\u00ebrgjithmon\u00eb.<\/p>\n Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb:<\/strong> \u00c7far\u00eb sugjerojn\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb luft\u00eb luft\u00ebrat tjera q\u00eb ka zhvilluar Rusia n\u00ebn Putinin?<\/p>\n David Petraeus:<\/strong> Si e kan\u00eb fituar [rus\u00ebt] luft\u00ebn n\u00eb \u00c7e\u00e7eni? Kan\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar [kryeqytetin] Groznin. Thjesht, e kan\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar dhe shpopulluar. \u00c7far\u00eb kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb n\u00eb Siri? Rusia nuk ka pasur forca tok\u00ebsore atje, ka pasur disa forca speciale, ka pasur forc\u00ebn ajrore q\u00eb vet\u00ebm ka goditur dhe shkat\u00ebrruar Alepon \u2013 nj\u00eb qytet m\u00eb t\u00eb madh se Kievi me popullsi. Dallimi, mendoj un\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb se bota nuk ka qen\u00eb e fiksuar atje [sikurse n\u00eb rastin e Ukrain\u00ebs]. Tani jan\u00eb mij\u00ebra, n\u00ebse jo qindra mij\u00ebra, telefona t\u00eb men\u00e7ur q\u00eb kapin gjith\u00e7ka. N\u00ebse hyni n\u00eb Twitter ose media tjera sociale, ju mund t\u00eb kuptoni se \u00e7far\u00eb po ndodh. Mendoj se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb lufta e par\u00eb q\u00eb ndodh n\u00eb k\u00ebso rrethanash.<\/p>\n \u00cbsht\u00eb lufta e par\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn SHBA-ja, sidomos, merr produkte t\u00eb inteligjenc\u00ebs, i deklasifikon ato n\u00eb at\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos i ekspozojn\u00eb burimet dhe metodat, dhe i nxjerr m\u00eb pas si informacion publik. Ne e kemi ekspozuar vazhdimisht Rusin\u00eb p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb ka b\u00ebr\u00eb. E kemi parashikuar se \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb dhe e kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb, edhe pse kan\u00eb th\u00ebn\u00eb se nuk do ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb.<\/p>\n Rusia mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr e Ukrain\u00ebs<\/strong> David Petraeus:<\/strong> Nuk mendoj shum\u00eb k\u00ebshtu. Mendoj se zona brenda Rusis\u00eb mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr. Kemi par\u00eb shp\u00ebrthimin n\u00eb nj\u00eb depo karburantesh n\u00eb Rusi. Ajo duket se \u00ebsht\u00eb goditur nga helikopter\u00ebt sulmues t\u00eb operacioneve speciale ukrainase, edhe pse nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb konfirmuar ende. Mendoj se do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb shihni sulme t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb tilla.<\/p>\n Rusia nuk duhet t\u00eb mendoj\u00eb se mund t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb d\u00ebme pa fund n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb, pa pasur disa edhe n\u00eb tok\u00ebn e saj. [Sulmi n\u00eb depo t\u00eb karburanteve] ka treguar edhe sa joadekuate \u00ebsht\u00eb mbrojtja e Rusis\u00eb, nuk ka qen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje ta ndaloj\u00eb sulmin. Ndoshta nuk ka mundur as ta detektoj\u00eb, e aq m\u00eb pak t\u2019i p\u00ebrgjigjej.<\/p>\n Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb:<\/strong> M\u00eb lejoni t\u2019ju pyes edhe p\u00ebr arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore. Cili \u00ebsht\u00eb rreziku i p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb tyre?<\/p>\n David Petraeus:<\/strong> P\u00ebrdorimi i arm\u00ebve t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimit n\u00eb mas\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte nj\u00eb prag enorm p\u00ebr t\u2019u kap\u00ebrcyer, saq\u00eb mendoj se do t\u00eb ishte jo vet\u00ebm i pand\u00ebrgjegjsh\u00ebm moralisht, por edhe nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi i Putinit, tep\u00ebr i marr\u00eb. Do t\u00eb ishte, thjesht, nj\u00eb budallall\u00ebk i pabesuesh\u00ebm. Bota nuk do t\u00eb mund ta injoronte.<\/p>\n Por, si\u00e7 e ka th\u00ebn\u00eb edhe zyrtari i Putinit [z\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsi i Kremlinit, Dmitry Peskov], n\u00ebse Rusia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn k\u00ebrc\u00ebnimin ekzistencial, nuk mund ta imagjinoj p\u00ebrdorimin e ndonj\u00eb arme t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimit n\u00eb mas\u00eb. Ka rrezik p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb. M\u00eb her\u00ebt, rreziku mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb qen\u00eb zero, tani \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi zero. Por, ka planifikime p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb. Ka shum\u00eb skenar\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqij, q\u00eb njer\u00ebzit paguhen p\u00ebr t\u2019i menduar, si n\u00eb komunitetin e inteligjenc\u00ebs, n\u00eb komunitetin e mbrojtjes dhe n\u00eb komunitetin e siguris\u00eb komb\u00ebtare. \u00cbsht\u00eb e ditur publikisht se K\u00ebshilli yn\u00eb i Siguris\u00eb Komb\u00ebtare ka individ\u00eb dhe ekipe q\u00eb punojn\u00eb n\u00eb skenar\u00ebt dhe rrethanat potenciale, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb realitet. Por, un\u00eb jam i prir\u00eb t\u00eb mendoj se gjasat p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb aktualisht jan\u00eb ende t\u00eb ul\u00ebta.<\/p>\n \u201cMomenti i Srebrenic\u00ebs\u201d<\/strong> David Petraeus:<\/strong> Natyrisht. Ai ka p\u00ebrdorur arm\u00eb kimike. Prej tyre, [udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi rus i opozit\u00ebs, Aleksei] Navalny gati se ka vdekur. Putin ka p\u00ebrdorur agjentin nervor edhe n\u00eb dy raste n\u00eb Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar. Ai nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb dikush q\u00eb ka moral, \u00ebsht\u00eb i pam\u00ebshirsh\u00ebm. Por, gjithashtu, mendoj se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb budalla dhe t\u00eb mos mendoj\u00eb se zem\u00ebrimi moral do t\u00eb jet\u00eb i jasht\u00ebzakonsh\u00ebm. Ky zem\u00ebrim po akumulohet tashm\u00eb. Mendoj se po i afrohemi nj\u00eb momenti q\u00eb mund t\u00eb quhet nj\u00eb \u2018moment i Srebrenic\u00ebs\u2019.<\/p>\n Kur thoni \u201cmoment i Srebrenic\u00ebs\u201d, \u00e7far\u00eb mendoni m\u00eb shum\u00eb?<\/strong><\/p>\n David Petraeus:<\/strong> Mos harroni se SHBA-ja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb Bosnje derisa ka ndodhur masakra e Srebrenic\u00ebs. Zem\u00ebrimi moral n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn ka qen\u00eb aq i madh saq\u00eb SHBA-ja, m\u00eb n\u00eb fund, \u00ebsht\u00eb detyruar t\u00eb marr\u00eb masa. Nuk po them se SHBA-ja do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb veprime t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejta ushtarake [kund\u00ebr Rusis\u00eb]. Por, un\u00eb mendoj se do t\u00eb cop\u00ebtojm\u00eb \u00e7do zinxhir furnizimi, q\u00eb ushqen secil\u00ebn industri ruse, dhe do t\u00eb sanksionojm\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha elementet e tyre. Nuk dua ta teproj, por bota do t\u00eb vdes\u00eb nga uria dhe nuk do t\u00eb haj\u00eb grurin rus. Zem\u00ebrimi moral do t\u00eb ishte aq i madh. N\u00ebse p\u00ebrdoren arm\u00ebt e shkat\u00ebrrimit n\u00eb mas\u00eb, un\u00eb thjesht nuk mund t\u00eb imagjinoj se cila do t\u00eb ishte p\u00ebrgjigjja.\/rel<\/p>\n \n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: Rusia vazhdon t\u00eb p\u00ebrballet me rezistenc\u00eb t\u00eb ashp\u00ebr nga Ukraina, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb ka kaluar m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb muaj nga nisja e pushtimit. Si e shihni ju vazhdimin e k\u00ebsaj lufte?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb:<\/strong> N\u00ebse Rusia ka sukses n\u00eb lindje, a do t\u00eb thot\u00eb kjo q\u00eb pjesa tjet\u00ebr e Ukrain\u00ebs pastaj do t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb e cenueshme?<\/p>\n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: Si e shihni fundin e k\u00ebsaj lufte?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb: Cilat jan\u00eb rreziqet n\u00ebse kjo luft\u00eb zvarritet?<\/strong><\/p>\n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb:<\/strong> Por, disa zyrtar\u00eb amerikan\u00eb thon\u00eb se presidentit rus, Vladimir Putin, nuk po i thuhet e v\u00ebrteta p\u00ebr luft\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Cili \u00ebsht\u00eb mendimi juaj p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb:<\/strong> A shihni ndonj\u00eb rrezik q\u00eb ky konflikt t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet jasht\u00eb kufijve t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs?<\/p>\n
Radio Evropa e Lir\u00eb:<\/strong> Putin, shum\u00eb gj\u00ebra ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se nuk do t\u2019i b\u00ebj\u00eb, por i ka b\u00ebr\u00eb\u2026<\/p>\n
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