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<\/a><\/p>\nN\u00eb vitin 1999, zoti Bernanke qortoi Bank\u00ebn e Japonis\u00eb, duke e akuzuar se ajo kishte d\u00ebshtuar t\u00eb gjall\u00ebronte rritjen ekonomike japoneze pas shp\u00ebrthimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cflluske ekonomike\u201d, pavar\u00ebsisht uljes s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb zero.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, 15 vjet pasi ai krijoi shprehjen \u201cmania e kursimit\u201d, ministrit\u00eb e financave dhe bankier\u00ebt qendror\u00eb n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn, u p\u00ebrball\u00ebn me luft\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb ruajtur nj\u00eb rritje ekonomike t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme, n\u00eb epok\u00ebn e kursimeve t\u00eb zellshme.<\/p>\n
Q\u00eb nga viti 2000, vlera e pasuris\u00eb globale t\u00eb mbajtur nga familjet, firmat dhe qeverit\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb trefishuar, nga 160 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb 510 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb, ose nga rreth 460% e PBB-s\u00eb globale, n\u00eb 610%, sipas institutit k\u00ebrkimor McKinsey Global Institute.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb prej tyre kan\u00eb marr\u00eb hua nga nj\u00ebri-tjetri p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb asete, duke i \u00e7uar borxhet n\u00eb nivele t\u00eb larta mjaft shqet\u00ebsuese. Rritja e kursimeve ndihmoi n\u00eb nxitjen e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb aseteve dhe uljen e normave t\u00eb interesit, duke krijuar shqet\u00ebsime makroekonomike n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Tani pandemia ka tronditur shtyllat e ekonomis\u00eb globale n\u00eb m\u00ebnyra q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht modelet e kursimit. Tregjet e shtr\u00ebnguara t\u00eb pun\u00ebs po i zhvendosin parat\u00eb te pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt q\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb etur p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpenzuar, duke kontribuar n\u00eb inflacionin tep\u00ebr t\u00eb lart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Bankat qendrore, t\u00eb cilat ishin t\u00eb paafta t\u00eb ulnin mjaftuesh\u00ebm normat e interesit, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos lejuar q\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb ulej n\u00ebn objektivat e tyre, tashm\u00eb kan\u00eb filluar t\u2019i rrisin normat p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar rritjen e inflacionit.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa entuziazmi i ri p\u00ebr huamarrjen qeveritare ose skepticizmi ndaj globalizmit mund t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb n\u00eb tharjen e kursimeve dhe vendosjen e nj\u00eb normaliteti t\u00eb ri, duket m\u00eb e mundshme q\u00eb \u201cmania e kursimit\u201d do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb, fal\u00eb zakoneve t\u00eb vjetra dhe njer\u00ebzve m\u00eb t\u00eb moshuar, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb n\u00eb rritje e popullsis\u00eb s\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Rezervat n\u00eb rritje t\u00eb kursimeve globale, shumica e t\u00eb cilave mbahen n\u00eb depozita bankare, obligacione, kapitale korporatash dhe prona, jan\u00eb ushqyer nga tri deg\u00eb kryesore: qeverit\u00eb e uritura p\u00ebr rezerva valutore, familjet dhe firmat q\u00eb vuajn\u00eb nga mungesa e parave dhe pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt q\u00eb po i afrohen mosh\u00ebs s\u00eb pensionit.<\/p>\n
Bernanke e shqet\u00ebsonte m\u00eb tep\u00ebr fluksi i par\u00eb, pra kursimet nga qeverit\u00eb. Akumulimi i rezervave valutore nga ana e qeverive shton kursimet n\u00eb dy m\u00ebnyra. Ekonomit\u00eb q\u00eb eksportojn\u00eb burime, kursejn\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave shtes\u00eb t\u00eb fituara nga eksportet e tyre dhe e kalojn\u00eb at\u00eb n\u00eb aksione dhe bono. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb mbahen si rezerva zyrtare.<\/p>\n
Qeveria ruse ka rezerva, t\u00eb cilat duke p\u00ebrjashtuar arin, arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 460 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ato t\u00eb Arabis\u00eb Saudite arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb 440 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. T\u00eb ardhurat shtes\u00eb zhvendosen gjithashtu n\u00eb fonde t\u00eb pasuris\u00eb sovrane; ato t\u00eb Abu Dhabit vlejn\u00eb pothuajse 700 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa ato t\u00eb Norvegjis\u00eb, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1.3 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ekonomit\u00eb e tjera grumbullojn\u00eb rezerva valutore, nd\u00ebrsa nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb n\u00eb tregje p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur vler\u00ebn e monedhave t\u00eb tyre, p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur eksportet ose p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb grumbull asetesh t\u00eb sigurta, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzohen n\u00eb koh\u00eb stresi financiar.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, k\u00ebto nd\u00ebrhyrje ulin konsumin n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e tyre vendase, duke reduktuar shpenzimet n\u00eb raport me prodhimin dhe duke kontribuar n\u00eb teprica t\u00eb llogaris\u00eb korente, t\u00eb cilat duhet t\u00eb absorbohen nga pjesa tjet\u00ebr e ekonomis\u00eb globale.<\/p>\n
Rezervat e mbajtura nga Koreja e Jugut, Singapori, Tajvani dhe India, jan\u00eb rritur n\u00eb qindra miliarda. Asnj\u00eb vend nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb praktika t\u00eb tilla me efekt m\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrues global sesa Kina, e cila mban rreth 3.2 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb rezerva valutore.<\/p>\n
Kontributi i rritjes s\u00eb rezervave n\u00eb kursime ishte m\u00eb i theksuar n\u00eb koh\u00ebn kur zoti Bernanke dha paralajm\u00ebrimin e tij. Nga viti 1998 deri n\u00eb vitin 2008, rezervat zyrtare valutore u rrit\u00ebn nga 5.2% e PBB-s\u00eb globale, n\u00eb 11.5%, mb\u00ebshtetur nga nj\u00eb rritje e q\u00ebndrueshme e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe akumulimi i rezervave nga Kina.<\/p>\n
Gjat\u00eb k\u00ebsaj periudhe, rritja e rezerv\u00ebs valutore mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb dominuar mbi burimet e tjera t\u00eb kursimit. Hulumtimi nga Francis Warnock dhe Veronica Cacdac Warnock nga Universiteti i Virxhinias, tregon se vet\u00ebm akumulimi i rezervave nga janari deri n\u00eb maj 2005, uli yield-in e bonove dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7are t\u00eb thesarit me 0.8 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje.<\/p>\n
Rritja e rezerv\u00ebs valutore u ndal gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs financiare globale, m\u00eb pas rifilloi n\u00eb vitet pasuese, duke arritur nj\u00eb kulm prej 15.2% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb globale n\u00eb vitin 2013.<\/p>\n
Rezervat u ul\u00ebn m\u00eb pas (dhe ran\u00eb paksa si pjes\u00eb e PBB-s\u00eb) dhe nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie n\u00eb vitet n\u00eb vijim nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtohet. Nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb e zgjatur e stresit financiar pas pandemis\u00eb, mund t\u2019i detyroj\u00eb disa ekonomi n\u00eb zhvillim q\u00eb t\u00eb shterojn\u00eb rezervat e tyre. N\u00ebse tensionet ekonomike dhe gjeopolitike e detyrojn\u00eb Rusin\u00eb dhe Kin\u00ebn t\u00eb zvog\u00eblojn\u00eb rezervat e tyre, kjo mund t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presion mbi normat e interesit.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithashtu e mundur q\u00eb pandemia t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb re t\u00eb rezervave. Megjith\u00ebse nj\u00eb zhvendosje n\u00eb energjin\u00eb me karbon zero, mund t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrroj\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimisht t\u00eb ardhurat nga karburantet fosile, ky tranzicion mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7mime t\u00eb larta p\u00ebr naft\u00ebn dhe gazin, pasi prodhimi i ri ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb ngec\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, pandemia dhe pasojat e saj ndoshta do t\u00eb nxisin t\u00ebrheqjen e rezervave valutore. Gjat\u00eb panikut financiar t\u00eb marsit 2020 dhe p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb muajt e fundit, nd\u00ebrsa kushtet e v\u00ebshtira globale penguan tregjet n\u00eb zhvillim, ekonomit\u00eb q\u00eb i p\u00ebrballuan m\u00eb mir\u00eb streset, ishin ato me rezerva t\u00eb mjaftueshme valutore.<\/p>\n
Ky m\u00ebsim tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb p\u00ebrdorim. Deri n\u00eb vjesht\u00ebn e vitit 2021, rezervat ishin af\u00ebrsisht 1 trilion dollar\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se sa para Covid 19.<\/p>\n
Efektet e akumulimit t\u00eb rezerv\u00ebs mund t\u00eb kompensohen nga rritja e huamarrjes s\u00eb qeverive. Ngarkesat e borxhit t\u00eb qeverive, tep\u00ebr t\u00eb larta q\u00eb para pandemis\u00eb, kan\u00eb shp\u00ebrthyer gjat\u00eb dy viteve t\u00eb fundit, dhe vet\u00ebm n\u00eb vitin 2020, borxhi publik si pjes\u00eb e PBB-s\u00eb u rrit me gati 20 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e zhvilluara, duke arritur n\u00eb 123%, dhe me gati dhjet\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb zhvillim, duke arritur n\u00eb 63%.<\/p>\n
Studimi i kryer nga Lukasz Rachel, nga London School of Economics, dhe Larry Summers nga Universiteti i Harvardit, llogarit se gjat\u00eb gjysm\u00ebshekullit t\u00eb fundit, rritja e borxhit qeveritar n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e pasura, i rriti normat e interesit me rreth 1.5 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje. Ky efekt u baraspeshua nga faktor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, por mund t\u00eb mos ndodh\u00eb k\u00ebshtu n\u00eb dekadat e ardhshme.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb problem i shtres\u00ebs s\u00eb pasur<\/strong><\/p>\nNj\u00eb rrjedh\u00eb e dyt\u00eb e kursimeve ka ardhur nga familjet dhe kompanit\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb g\u00ebzuar nj\u00eb gjendje m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb financiare gjat\u00eb dekadave t\u00eb fundit. Q\u00eb nga vitet 1970, pabarazia \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb shum\u00eb ekonomi.<\/p>\n
Familjet m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura kan\u00eb nj\u00eb prirje m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb ky ndryshim n\u00eb shp\u00ebrndarjen e t\u00eb ardhurave kontribuoi n\u00eb manin\u00eb e kursimit, sipas studimit nga Atif Mian nga Universiteti Princeton, Ludwig Straub nga Universiteti i Harvardit dhe Amir Sufi nga Universiteti i \u00c7ikagos.<\/p>\n
Nga viti 1983 deri n\u00eb 2019, pjesa e t\u00eb ardhurave amerikane q\u00eb shkon p\u00ebr 10% e popullsis\u00eb me t\u00eb ardhura m\u00eb t\u00eb larta, u rrit me 15 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje. P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj \u201cmanie kursimi nga t\u00eb pasurit\u201d, kursimi mesatar vjetor nga 1% i rrog\u00ebtar\u00ebve m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, ka tejkaluar mesataren vjetore t\u00eb investimeve t\u00eb brendshme neto q\u00eb nga viti 2000. Rritja e pabarazis\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebn rreth 0.6 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb r\u00ebnies s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb bot\u00ebn e pasur q\u00eb nga vitet 1970, sipas Rachel dhe Summers.<\/p>\n
Familjet me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb larta nuk kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb vetme n\u00eb grumbullimin e kursimeve. P\u00ebr dekada, korporatat kan\u00eb grumbulluar gjithashtu para, duke mbajtur nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb fitimeve t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb majme neto.<\/p>\n
Sipas Peter Chen nga Analysis Group, nj\u00eb konsulenc\u00eb ekonomike, dhe Brent Neiman nga Universiteti i \u00c7ikagos si dhe Loukas Karabarbounis nga Universiteti i Minesot\u00ebs, kursimet vjetore globale t\u00eb korporatave, u rrit\u00ebn nga m\u00eb pak se 10% e PBB-s\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, n\u00eb gati 15% midis viteve 1980 dhe 2015. Sektori i korporatave ka vepruar si nj\u00eb huadh\u00ebn\u00ebs neto p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb globale, n\u00eb vend t\u00eb nj\u00eb huamarr\u00ebsi neto.<\/p>\n
Ashtu si me akumulimin e rezerv\u00ebs, r\u00ebnd\u00ebsia relative e faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur dhe zbehur. Pabarazia e t\u00eb ardhurave u rrit ndjesh\u00ebm nga viti 1980 deri n\u00eb vitin 2000. N\u00eb vitet q\u00eb pasuan, ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb ulur n\u00eb disa ekonomi, si ajo e Britanis\u00eb, dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm m\u00eb t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, si ajo e Amerik\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Kursimet e korporatave, n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, u rrit\u00ebn relativisht ngadal\u00eb p\u00ebrpara vitit 2000, m\u00eb pas shum\u00eb m\u00eb shpejt pas k\u00ebsaj periudhe, pasi kompanit\u00eb grumbulluan para nga rritja e fitimeve. N\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, p\u00ebr shembull, fitimet e korporatave kan\u00eb q\u00ebndruar n\u00eb nivelin mbi 10% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb periudh\u00ebs q\u00eb nga viti 2006, n\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur nuk ishin rritur kurr\u00eb mbi nivelin 8% n\u00eb tremujorin e shekullit t\u00eb kaluar.<\/p>\n
Pabarazia e t\u00eb ardhurave dhe p\u00ebrfitimi i korporatave nuk mund t\u00eb parashikohen me siguri. T\u00eb dyja pasqyrojn\u00eb nd\u00ebrveprimin e forcave t\u00eb panum\u00ebrta, nga baraspesha e fuqis\u00eb s\u00eb korporatave dhe fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore, gjendja e progresit teknologjik dhe rritjes s\u00eb produktivitetit, e deri tek taksat dhe politikat rregullatore t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb tendencat e gjysm\u00ebshekullit t\u00eb kaluar mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbysen nga pandemia dhe pasojat e saj. Gjat\u00eb 18 muajve t\u00eb fundit, tregjet e shtr\u00ebnguara t\u00eb pun\u00ebs ndihmuan n\u00eb rritjen e pagave dhe forcuan ndikimin e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve te pun\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebsit e tyre.<\/p>\n
Rritja m\u00eb e ngadalt\u00eb e fuqis\u00eb pun\u00ebtore t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrive n\u00eb plakje, mund t\u00eb ndihmoj\u00eb n\u00eb ruajtjen e k\u00ebtyre p\u00ebrfitimeve. Kompanit\u00eb \u2013 ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht ato t\u00eb m\u00ebdha dhe fitimprur\u00ebse t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb \u2013 jan\u00eb n\u00ebn mbik\u00ebqyrjen e rrept\u00eb t\u00eb rregullator\u00ebve q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb t\u00eb nxisin konkurrenc\u00ebn. Kushtet m\u00eb t\u00eb mira p\u00ebr pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt, p\u00ebrve\u00e7se reduktojn\u00eb pabarazin\u00eb, gjithashtu duhet t\u00eb ulin fitimet e firmave.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb t\u00ebrheqje nga globalizimi mund t\u2019i p\u00ebrforcoj\u00eb k\u00ebto tendenca. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, ndryshimet thelb\u00ebsore n\u00eb pabarazi jan\u00eb relativisht t\u00eb rralla n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb moderne. Kompresimi i madh i t\u00eb ardhurave q\u00eb ndodhi nga vitet 1910 deri n\u00eb dekadat e pasluft\u00ebs, erdhi si shkak i Depresionit dhe likuidimit t\u00eb pasurive p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar luft\u00ebrat, pasi taksat mbi t\u00eb pasurit u rrit\u00ebn shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr se nivelet aktuale. P\u00ebr momentin, trazira t\u00eb tilla duken t\u00eb pamundura.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, si\u00e7 shkruajn\u00eb zoti Mian dhe bashkautor\u00ebt, efektet e pabarazis\u00eb n\u00eb kursime mund t\u00eb theksohen. Nd\u00ebrsa kursimet e larta nga t\u00eb pasurit nxisin rritjen e normave t\u00eb interesit, ata argumentojn\u00eb se familjet m\u00eb t\u00eb varfra rrisin huamarrjen p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur konsumin e vet.<\/p>\n
Por nd\u00ebrsa borxhi grumbullohet, ata jan\u00eb t\u00eb detyruar t\u00eb reduktojn\u00eb shpenzimet p\u00ebr t\u00eb shlyer kredit\u00eb. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, pagesat e tyre t\u00eb borxhit, \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb transferimin e m\u00eb shum\u00eb parave p\u00ebr familjet e pasura, blerjet e aseteve t\u00eb t\u00eb cilave, m\u00eb pas financojn\u00eb efektivisht huamarrjen e jo t\u00eb pasurve.<\/p>\n
Kurthi q\u00eb rezulton nga kjo, pra nj\u00eb pabarazi e lart\u00eb, norma t\u00eb ul\u00ebta interesi dhe borxhi i lart\u00eb mes familjeve m\u00eb t\u00eb varfra, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u shmangur, duke mb\u00ebshtetur kursimet e t\u00eb pasurve, si nj\u00eb forc\u00eb e fuqishme makroekonomike.<\/p>\n
Shum\u00eb m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb faktori i tret\u00eb q\u00eb nxit kursimet, i cili lidhet me plakjen e popullsis\u00eb dhe mund t\u00eb nxis\u00eb ndryshime t\u00eb tjera post-pandemike n\u00eb sjellje. Bota po plaket gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb tep\u00ebr dhe n\u00eb dekadat e ardhshme, kursimet e t\u00eb moshuarve do t\u00eb ushtrojn\u00eb presion t\u00eb pam\u00ebshirsh\u00ebm mbi makroekonomin\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha vendet, kursimet e familjeve po ndjekin nj\u00eb model t\u00eb besuesh\u00ebm. Kur pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb rinj, ata kursejn\u00eb pak, madje marrin edhe borxhe. Kursimet e tyre rriten n\u00eb t\u00eb 30-at dhe t\u00eb 40-at, dhe arrijn\u00eb kulmin nj\u00eb dekad\u00eb apo m\u00eb shum\u00eb para daljes n\u00eb pension.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa popullsia \u00ebsht\u00eb plakur n\u00eb gjysm\u00ebshekullin e fundit, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb bot\u00ebn e pasur, pjesa e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve n\u00eb vitet e kursimit, \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur gjithashtu, duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb grumbullimin e m\u00eb shum\u00eb parave rezerv\u00eb.<\/p>\n
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<\/a><\/p>\nN\u00eb nj\u00eb studim t\u00eb fundit q\u00eb shqyrtonte efektet e ndryshimit demografik n\u00eb kursime, Etienne Gagnon, Benjamin Johannsen dhe David L\u00f3pez-Salido nga Bordi i Rezerv\u00ebs Federale tregojn\u00eb se plakja n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebj\u00eb rreth nj\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb r\u00ebnies s\u00eb normave t\u00eb interesit, q\u00eb nga vitet 1980. (Studime t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb fundit kan\u00eb konstatuar efekte m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, deri n\u00eb tre pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje.)<\/p>\n
Duke marr\u00eb si shembull t\u00eb kaluar\u00ebn, normat duket se do t\u00eb mbeten t\u00eb ul\u00ebta. Duke p\u00ebrjashtuar nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb prodhimit, ose p\u00ebrqafimin e nj\u00eb qasjeje distopike \u201cLogan\u2019s Run\u201d ndaj t\u00eb moshuarve, popullsia e bot\u00ebs do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb plaket.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrqindja e popullsis\u00eb globale mbi mosh\u00ebn 50 vje\u00e7, u rrit nga 15% n\u00eb vitet 1950, n\u00eb 25% sot, thon\u00eb Adrien Auclert dhe Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Martenet nga Universiteti Stanford, Hannes Malmberg nga Universiteti i Minesot\u00ebs dhe Matthew Rognlie nga Universiteti Northwestern. Ajo pritet t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb 40% deri n\u00eb vitin 2100.<\/p>\n
Kjo mund t\u00eb rezultoj\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsim, n\u00ebse marrim parasysh tendencat e fundit t\u00eb fertilitetit. N\u00eb vitin 2021, shkalla e lindjeve n\u00eb Indi ra n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 2.0 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr grua \u2014 n\u00ebn shkall\u00ebn ku lindjet dhe vdekjet jan\u00eb n\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebraf\u00ebrt.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, nj\u00eb num\u00ebr n\u00eb rritje i tregjeve n\u00eb zhvillim po p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb, q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e zakonshme n\u00eb vendet e pasura. Hulumtimi i fundit nga Matthew Delventhal n\u00eb Kolegjin Claremont McKenna, Jes\u00fas Fern\u00e1ndez-Villaverde n\u00eb Universitetin e Pensilvanis\u00eb dhe Nezih Guner n\u00eb Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona, arriti n\u00eb p\u00ebrfundimin se tranzicione t\u00eb tilla \u2013 kalimi nga nivelet e larta t\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb n\u00eb ato t\u00eb ul\u00ebta \u2013 q\u00eb shoq\u00ebrojn\u00eb zhvillimin ekonomik, ndodh m\u00eb shpejt me kalimin e koh\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00ebqind vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb, ky tranzicion zgjati nj\u00eb gjysm\u00ebshekulli ose edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb, por tani ka tendenc\u00ebn t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbushet n\u00eb vet\u00ebm dy ose tre dekada. Rreth 80 vende e kan\u00eb p\u00ebrfunduar k\u00ebt\u00eb tranzicion dhe pothuajse n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha vendet e tjera \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb proces.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, pandemia uli edhe m\u00eb tej normat e lindjeve n\u00eb shum\u00eb vende. Shkalla e lindjeve n\u00eb Kin\u00eb arriti nj\u00eb rekord t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb vitin 2021, duke sjell\u00eb epok\u00ebn e r\u00ebnies s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb kineze. Amerika p\u00ebrjetoi gjithashtu nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb numrit t\u00eb foshnjave, e cila, e kombinuar me emigracionin n\u00eb r\u00ebnie, uli norm\u00ebn e rritjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb vet\u00ebm 0,1% n\u00eb vitin 2021 \u2013 rritja m\u00eb e vog\u00ebl vjetore q\u00eb nga viti 1900.<\/p>\n
Fundi i pandemis\u00eb mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb normave t\u00eb lindjeve. Por prirja e p\u00ebrgjithshme \u00ebsht\u00eb e dukshme: bota po thinjet, me shpejt\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n
Nuanca t\u00eb panum\u00ebrta gri<\/strong><\/p>\nA do t\u00eb mbetet efekti i plakjes tek kursimet, i nj\u00ebjt\u00eb si gjat\u00eb gjysm\u00ebshekullit t\u00eb kaluar? N\u00eb nj\u00eb studim, Charles Goodhart nga London School of Economics dhe Manoj Pradhan nga shoq\u00ebria k\u00ebrkimore Talking Heads Macroeconomics, argumentojn\u00eb se plakja e popullsis\u00eb do t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit vet\u00ebm deri n\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb t\u00eb caktuar, pas s\u00eb cil\u00ebs do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb nj\u00eb \u201cndryshim i madh demografik\u201d.<\/p>\n
Pik\u00ebpamja e tyre mb\u00ebshtetet pjes\u00ebrisht n\u00eb v\u00ebzhgimin se, megjith\u00ebse pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt n\u00eb prag t\u00eb daljes n\u00eb pension kursejn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb, ata q\u00eb jan\u00eb tashm\u00eb n\u00eb pension fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb rezervat e tyre t\u00eb aksioneve dhe bonove. Pra, rritja e p\u00ebrqindjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb mbi mosh\u00ebn e pensionit, mund t\u00eb n\u00ebnkuptoj\u00eb se p\u00ebrqindja e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve q\u00eb kursejn\u00eb shum\u00eb, do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb kulmin dhe m\u00eb pas do t\u00eb ulet, duke ulur kursimet dhe duke rritur normat e interesit.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb ndryshim i madh demografik duket i mundsh\u00ebm, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht n\u00eb vende si Amerika, ku nj\u00eb grup i madh i brezit t\u00eb ashtuquajtur \u201cbaby boomers\u201d po del n\u00eb pension.<\/p>\n
Por ekonomist\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb thon\u00eb se ka arsye p\u00ebr t\u00eb menduar se plakja do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit. P\u00ebr shembull, ata v\u00ebrejn\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb profili i mosh\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb popullsie n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi ajo q\u00eb ka r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi. Me t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb ka shum\u00eb persona q\u00eb i p\u00ebrkasin brezit \u201cbaby boomers\u201d, por mosha mesatare n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb ende vet\u00ebm 38 vje\u00e7.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb arsye tjet\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb se, n\u00eb bot\u00ebn n\u00eb zhvillim, nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe e pun\u00ebtor\u00ebve nuk e kan\u00eb arritur ende mosh\u00ebn kur mbahen kursime m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha. P\u00ebr shembull, mosha mesatare n\u00eb Indi \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm 28 vje\u00e7. P\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb tregjet financiare mbeten t\u00eb integruara n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb arsyeshme n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn, kursimet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta do t\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb n\u00eb uljen e normave t\u00eb interesit.<\/p>\n
Ndoshta m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishmja, njer\u00ebzit n\u00eb pension nuk shpenzojn\u00eb shum\u00eb. P\u00ebrkundrazi, p\u00ebr nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb motivesh, p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur shterimin e kursimeve t\u00eb tyre ose p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar pasuri p\u00ebr trash\u00ebgimtar\u00ebt, ata mbajn\u00eb stoqe t\u00eb m\u00ebdha pasurie. N\u00eb Britani, p\u00ebr shembull, q\u00eb nga viti 2018, njer\u00ebzit mbi 80 vje\u00e7, kishin m\u00eb shum\u00eb pasuri se ata t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs 45 deri n\u00eb 49 vje\u00e7.<\/p>\n
Studimi i fundit nga No\u00ebmie Lisack nga Banque du France, Rana Sajedi nga Banka e Anglis\u00eb dhe Gregory Thwaites nga Universiteti Nottingham, vler\u00ebson se ky zakon i ruajtjes s\u00eb kursimeve do t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit nga mesi i shekullit me gati gjysm\u00eb pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje n\u00eb krahasim me nivelet aktuale. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb pabarazia dhe niveli i rezervave nuk tregojn\u00eb shenja r\u00ebnieje, forca e pashmangshme e demografis\u00eb duhet t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb t\u00eb nxis\u00eb rritjen e kursimeve.<\/p>\n
Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, bota n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen mund t\u00eb duket gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb si Japonia. Atje, mosha mesatare \u00ebsht\u00eb 48 vje\u00e7, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb e kat\u00ebrta e popullsis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi 65 vje\u00e7 dhe yield-i i nj\u00eb bonoje qeveritare 30-vje\u00e7are \u00ebsht\u00eb 0.8%, pavar\u00ebsisht nga ngarkesa e borxhit t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb prej plot 259% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb brez m\u00eb par\u00eb, Bernanke llogariti se rritja e dob\u00ebt e Japonis\u00eb dhe normat tep\u00ebr t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb inflacionit dhe interesit, ishin pasoj\u00eb e \u201cparaliz\u00ebs s\u00eb vet\u00ebshkaktuar\u201d nga banka qendrore. Sot, nj\u00eb realitet i till\u00eb duket m\u00eb shum\u00eb si fati i pashmangsh\u00ebm i nj\u00eb bote m\u00eb kursimtare.\/ Monitor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n
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