{"id":56352,"date":"2022-06-07T09:23:44","date_gmt":"2022-06-07T09:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.imalbania.com\/kosova\/why-europes-embargo-on-russian-oil-is-not-enough\/"},"modified":"2022-06-07T09:23:44","modified_gmt":"2022-06-07T09:23:44","slug":"why-europes-embargo-on-russian-oil-is-not-enough","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.imalbania.com\/kosova\/why-europes-embargo-on-russian-oil-is-not-enough\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Europe’s embargo on Russian oil is not enough"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n

Vladimir Putin needs petrodollars, and he needs them right now. Many analysts expected the Russian president to formally declare a state of war with Ukraine, a move that would allow Russia to fully mobilize its reserve forces.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

But <\/span>although <\/span>Putin may want to send more troops <\/span>Russian<\/span>e<\/span> in Ukraine, he does not <\/span>can<\/span>e<\/span>si ta b<\/span>e<\/span>j<\/span>e<\/span> k<\/span>e<\/span>t<\/span>e<\/span>. Will the embargo just force it<\/span>–<\/span>revealed <\/span>everywhere<\/span>e<\/span>r oil<\/span>e<\/span>s<\/span> Russian <\/span>from the European Union<\/span>,<\/span> q<\/span>e<\/span> to give<\/span>e<\/span> end war<\/span>e<\/span>s<\/span>?<\/span> currently<\/span>The Kremlin has softened it <\/span>more<\/span>e<\/span>his propaganda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Now he is not talking m<\/span>e<\/span> ABOUT <\/span>invasion <\/span>of Kiev. <\/span>Apparently the intent <\/span>Putin’s only’s power<\/span>imi i<\/span> region<\/span>t<\/span> east of the Donbas. But even there, Putin does not <\/span>e ka t<\/span>e<\/span> secure<\/span> victory<\/span>en<\/span>after Ukraine has launched the so-called Joint Forces Operation, <\/span>q<\/span>e<\/span> includes its most trained military units<\/span>,<\/span> AND<\/span> increasingly armed with advanced military equipment<\/span> Western.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nd<\/span>e<\/span>s sanctuary <\/span>Russia has lost much of its modern military equipment<\/span>,<\/span> and sanctions<\/span> and strong<\/span> western have it <\/span>b<\/span>e<\/span>r<\/span>e<\/span> unable to recharge<\/span>e<\/span> its reserves. with <\/span>more<\/span>e<\/span> few options<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span>dispos<\/span>of<\/span>tion<\/span>Russia po<\/span> throws n<\/span>e<\/span> battle<\/span>e<\/span> tanks e<\/span> old t<\/span>e<\/span> Soviet era.<\/span><\/p>\n

M<\/span>e<\/span>the only way <\/span>see Putin<\/span>of<\/span> can t<\/span>or<\/span> compensate for the lack of equipment<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span> ground,<\/span> it’s <\/span>n<\/span>e<\/span>p<\/span>e<\/span>rmit <\/span>remit<\/span>imit t<\/span>e<\/span> more soldiers<\/span>widower<\/span>. But <\/span>inclusion n<\/span>e<\/span> LUFT-<\/span>e<\/span> e <\/span>young recruits<\/span>,<\/span> is an unpopular idea<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span> people, therefore <\/span>Putin <\/span>po paguan <\/span>pay people to fight for Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is said that currently r<\/span>ekrut\u00ebt<\/span> GIVEN <\/span>3000-5000 dollars per month. But the latest decision to remove the age limit for army recruits<\/span>,<\/span> suggests that even the prospects for it <\/span>get<\/span>e<\/span> a<\/span>e<\/span>salary that is higher than<\/span>how<\/span> average salary <\/span>n<\/span>e<\/span> Russia<\/span>no<\/span> is attracting enough fighters.<\/span><\/p>\n

Budget data recently published by <\/span>M<\/span>inistria ruse e <\/span>F<\/span>Inanc<\/span>,<\/span> suggest <\/span>se Putin <\/span>not <\/span>can afford <\/span>more<\/span>e<\/span> DURING<\/span>e<\/span> the rising costs of war. <\/span>S<\/span>e<\/span> pari, t<\/span>the data confirm<\/span> that war has been expensive<\/span>. Sh<\/span>military penalties have increased by almost 130<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> last month, at 630 billion rubles ($ 10.2 billion), or 6<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> of annual GDP on a proportionate basis.<\/span><\/p>\n

The data also show that Russia had<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span> APRIL<\/span> a fiscal deficit of more than 260 billion rubles<\/span>sh<\/span>or 2.5<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> of GDP <\/span>s<\/span>e<\/span> ratio<\/span>ed <\/span>with annual figures. While global oil prices are very high, Russia sells its oil at a discount <\/span>landing <\/span>big – $ 70 a barrel for Ural crude oil<\/span>s<\/span> last weeks, 30<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> below market price <\/span>–<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span> a<\/span>e<\/span> time<\/span>e<\/span> q<\/span>e<\/span> total output is expected to decline<\/span> this year<\/span> me 10<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, revenue <\/span>other p<\/span>e<\/span>Apart<\/span>What<\/span> hydrocarbons<\/span>widower<\/span> have fallen, running <\/span>b<\/span>e<\/span>r<\/span>e<\/span> q<\/span>e<\/span> oil and gas taxes amount to more than 60<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> of fiscal revenues, compared to less than 40<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> one year ago.<\/span> Putin’s dependence on petrodollars <\/span>stands for the<\/span>n<\/span> that<\/span> declaring an embargo <\/span>ABOUT <\/span>about 90<\/span> p<\/span>e<\/span>r sed<\/span> of Russian oil imports within the next 6-8 months, the European Union yes <\/span>e <\/span>hits Russia where it hurts<\/span> v<\/span>e<\/span>rts<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

T<\/span>ashma is <\/span>e<\/span> sure that <\/span>Putin <\/span>will face a major fiscal crisis within a <\/span>year, making it difficult <\/span>continuation of <\/span>his war in Ukraine, <\/span>without speaking p<\/span>e<\/span>r can<\/span>e<\/span>sin<\/span>e<\/span> e <\/span>fluff<\/span>imit t<\/span>e<\/span> nd<\/span>o<\/span>a<\/span>e<\/span> PLACE <\/span>other.<\/span> By p<\/span>the problem is that the embargo will help Putin in <\/span>a<\/span>e<\/span> period<\/span>e<\/span> short-term.<\/span><\/p>\n

own<\/span>e<\/span>m <\/span>the news of <\/span>proclamation<\/span>es<\/span> s<\/span>e<\/span> HIS<\/span>,<\/span> has already caused oil prices to rise. This is why Europe should t<\/span>or<\/span> fulfill its embargo <\/span>on<\/span> PETROLEUM<\/span> Russian<\/span> with additional and immediate measures. <\/span>N<\/span>e<\/span> k<\/span>e<\/span>t<\/span>e<\/span> rast spikasin 2<\/span> options.<\/span> First<\/span> –<\/span> proposed by the economist <\/span>Ricardo Hausmann immediately after the invasion<\/span> Russian<\/span>and that others have shown can be applied <\/span>with <\/span>FAST<\/span>e<\/span>if –<\/span> is a high tariff on Russian oil imports.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach has <\/span>more<\/span>e<\/span> SENSE <\/span>from the point of view <\/span>eCONOMIC<\/span>e<\/span>. Every euro spent on Russian oil<\/span>,<\/span>helps Putin fund <\/span>LUFT-<\/span>e<\/span>in him <\/span>in Ukraine. <\/span>Therefore n<\/span>is part of the amount paid by buyers of Russian hydrocarbons<\/span>,<\/span> should be transferred to Ukraine as compensation<\/span>,<\/span> or stored in <\/span>a<\/span>e<\/span> ACCOUNT <\/span>BANKING <\/span>special<\/span>,<\/span> until <\/span>Russia <\/span>t<\/span>‘i<\/span> d<\/span>e<\/span>m<\/span>GS<\/span>e<\/span>rblej<\/span>e<\/span> officially<\/span> Ukraine<\/span>e<\/span>np<\/span>e<\/span>rd<\/span>e<\/span>met caused by the war<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But at a time when European households are facing high energy costs, <\/span>POLITICIAN<\/span>e<\/span>t are not<\/span>e<\/span> t<\/span>e<\/span> interested t<\/span>e<\/span> decide <\/span>a tax <\/span>t<\/span>e<\/span> cloud over <\/span>oil<\/span>e<\/span>n<\/span>. <\/span>P<\/span>e<\/span>rk<\/span>e<\/span>t<\/span>e<\/span> reason<\/span>the Prime Minister <\/span>Italian Mario Draghi has proposed an alternative solution:<\/span>setting of <\/span>a limit<\/span>new on<\/span> PRICE<\/span>ne nat<\/span>e<\/span>s<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to this proposal <\/span>–<\/span> which the European Council has instructed the Commission to assess – Western countries will pay a lower price for Russian oil and gas<\/span>,<\/span> and will impose secondary sanctions on third parties who pay more.<\/span><\/p>\n

it <\/span>measure<\/span>e<\/span> do t<\/span>e<\/span> applies immediately – say, in<\/span> n<\/span>of<\/span>the veil<\/span> $ 70 a barrel – and <\/span>WILL <\/span>to decrease by about $ 10 every month that goes on<\/span> war<\/span>. <\/span>E<\/span>is<\/span>e<\/span> ev<\/span>e<\/span>rts<\/span>e<\/span>, <\/span>q<\/span>e<\/span> Putin may refuse to sell oil<\/span>n<\/span> at this price. But, given that he is already quite desperate for t<\/span>‘<\/span>sold to China and India with <\/span>landing <\/span>to m<\/span>or<\/span>f<\/span>e<\/span>and <\/span>fact q<\/span>e<\/span> today’s energy prices<\/span> of<\/span>far exceed production costs, this <\/span>there does not seem to be much<\/span>e<\/span> t<\/span>e<\/span> symbolic act<\/span>e<\/span> t<\/span>e<\/span> It happens<\/span>e<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

P<\/span>e<\/span>rkun<\/span>d<\/span>razi<\/span>maybe <\/span>Russia <\/span>would continue to supply oil and gas to Western buyers at the limited price, while buyers like China and India, under threat of sanctions, would have no reason to pay<\/span>MoM<\/span> more. This will t<\/span>e<\/span> secure <\/span>relief p<\/span>e<\/span>r <\/span>customers<\/span>t<\/span> from high energy prices<\/span>,<\/span> and will <\/span>significantly reduced t<\/span>e<\/span> Russia’s income.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some may <\/span>p<\/span>r<\/span>etendojn<\/span>e<\/span> s<\/span>and price constraints distort incentives<\/span>,<\/span> in this case, urge<\/span>en<\/span>for her <\/span>launched widespread use<\/span>e<\/span> t<\/span>e<\/span> resources<\/span>widower<\/span> renewable. But this argument only applies to a competitive market. In today’s oil and gas market, prices<\/span> of<\/span> far exceed costs and the global oil cartel OPEC + (<\/span>q<\/span>e<\/span> It includes <\/span>ALSO <\/span>Russia)<\/span>ka<\/span>n<\/span>e<\/span> r<\/span>e<\/span>n<\/span>e<\/span> agreed<\/span> only times <\/span>The last <\/span>q<\/span>e<\/span> to increase<\/span>in<\/span> production in July and August.<\/span><\/p>\n

Large Russian company e <\/span>gas<\/span>,<\/span> Gazprom<\/span>,<\/span> likely to <\/span>ket<\/span>e<\/span> cheated on <\/span>prices in Europe even before the war. Such monopolistic behavior guarantees a limit<\/span>zim t<\/span>e<\/span> PRICE<\/span>t<\/span>.<\/span> Another argument <\/span>q<\/span>e<\/span> found<\/span> often against a boundary<\/span> ABOUT<\/span> PRICE<\/span>n,<\/span> is that he can promote <\/span>flowering of <\/span>market<\/span>ut<\/span> black.<\/span><\/p>\n

And this one <\/span>is a real danger. <\/span>K<\/span>companies <\/span>POWER <\/span>European have begun <\/span>already<\/span>e<\/span> to combine Russian petroleum products with other – one <\/span>“<\/span>Latvian mixture<\/span>\u201d<\/span> – to take advantage of lower prices, while claiming that <\/span>e <\/span>do not support <\/span>officially <\/span>makin<\/span>erin<\/span>e<\/span>Putin’s fighters.<\/span><\/p>\n

N<\/span>e<\/span> fact <\/span>THESE<\/span> company <\/span>they are not breaking any law. If you will <\/span>moving <\/span>a kuf<\/span>i on<\/span> PRICE<\/span>n e naft<\/span>e<\/span>s<\/span>, <\/span>it <\/span>would be implemented. Given public outrage n<\/span>daj<\/span> war<\/span>ss<\/span>e<\/span> Russia<\/span>e<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span>Ukraine<\/span>e<\/span>the West ‘s commitment to secondary sanctions<\/span>but also<\/span> increasing investigations <\/span>by supported citizens <\/span>to open source t<\/span>e<\/span> intelligence<\/span>s<\/span>would be very difficult, in<\/span> not <\/span>impossible, trespass<\/span>or<\/span> of a<\/span>e<\/span> rule<\/span> t<\/span>e<\/span> such pa u nd<\/span>e<\/span>going<\/span>.<\/span>Embargo <\/span>q<\/span>e<\/span> has decided s<\/span>e<\/span> most recently the EU against Russian oil<\/span> will hurt Putin, but<\/span> this will not t<\/span>e<\/span> It happens<\/span>e<\/span> very soon. <\/span>THEREFORE <\/span>Europe must set a border immediately<\/span> ABOUT<\/span> PRICE<\/span>n<\/span>e <\/span>oil<\/span>s<\/span> and gas<\/span>t<\/span> rus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sh<\/span>e<\/span>nim: <\/span>Sergei Guriev, former chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development<\/span>(BERZH). currently<\/span> is Professor of Economics at <\/span>university <\/span>Sciences Po<\/span> n<\/span>e<\/span> Paris<\/span>.\/bota.al<\/span><\/p>\n

\n<\/p>\n

top channel
\n<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n