Mungesa e drithit v\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik me dhjet\u00ebra miliona njer\u00ebz n\u00eb bot\u00eb. Lufta, moti ekstrem dhe kontrollet e eksportit po kontribuojn\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb gjendje, shkruan The Economist<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2001, babai i Olena Nazarenkos filloi t\u00eb merrej me bujq\u00ebsi n\u00eb Lukashivka, nj\u00eb fshat i vog\u00ebl rreth 100 km n\u00eb veri t\u00eb Kievit. Ai kishte vet\u00ebm tre lop\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb kal\u00eb t\u00eb quajtur Rosa (q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb \u201cves\u00eb\u201d n\u00eb gjuh\u00ebn ukrainase).<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2020, zonja Nazarenko dhe bashk\u00ebshorti i saj Andriy, trash\u00ebguan ferm\u00ebn prej 400 hektar\u00ebsh, q\u00eb tani mban emrin Rosa. N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, ata mor\u00ebn nj\u00eb hua t\u00eb konsiderueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb paguar plehrat kimike p\u00ebr kultivimet e ardhshme t\u00eb grurit n\u00eb pranver\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Por m\u00eb 9 mars, trupat ruse pushtuan fshatin dhe \u00e7ifti u largua. M\u00eb 31 mars, kur pushtuesit ishin larguar, \u00e7ifti u rikthye. Kthimi n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi ishte i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb. Nd\u00ebrtesa kryesore e ferm\u00ebs ishte shkat\u00ebrruar nga nj\u00eb granat\u00eb. Tre traktor\u00eb ishin prishur dhe u kishte rrjedhur nafta.<\/p>\n
Nga 117 lop\u00ebt n\u00eb ferm\u00eb, 42 kishin ngordhur dhe pjesa tjet\u00ebr q\u00ebndronin n\u00ebp\u00ebr fusha t\u00eb mbushura me mbeturina, mina, predha, bomba t\u00eb pashp\u00ebrthyera dhe kamion\u00eb t\u00eb djegur. Pes\u00ebdhjet\u00eb ton\u00eb grur\u00eb, fara luledielli dhe thek\u00ebr, ishin shkat\u00ebrruar, duke i kushtuar \u00e7iftit me dhjet\u00ebra mij\u00eb dollar\u00eb. \u201cNuk kemi para\u201d, thot\u00eb zonja Nazarenko. \u201cNuk kemi asgj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb shlyer detyrimet dhe po paguajm\u00eb me v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi interesin e kredis\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb Lukashivka dhe fshatrat p\u00ebrreth, me mij\u00ebra ton\u00eb drith\u00ebra jan\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar ose jan\u00eb l\u00ebn\u00eb t\u00eb kalben. Kjo vihet re edhe n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha zonat e luft\u00ebs t\u00eb vendit. Forcat ruse kan\u00eb v\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb sh\u00ebnjest\u00ebr fushat e grurit dhe fabrikat e plehrave kimike, duke e shkat\u00ebrruar infrastruktur\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Sasia e t\u00eb korrave t\u00eb drithit t\u00eb vitit t\u00eb kaluar q\u00eb ka mbetur ende n\u00eb vend, rreth 25 milion\u00eb ton, ka ngecur aty, pasi jan\u00eb bllokuar portet e Odessa-s, n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet t\u00eb cilave zakonisht kalojn\u00eb 98% e eksporteve t\u00eb drithit. Transportimi i grurit p\u00ebrmes porteve alternative n\u00eb Rumani, Bullgari dhe vendet baltike, \u00ebsht\u00eb di\u00e7ka e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cPara luft\u00ebs, Ukraina eksportonte rreth 5 milion\u00eb ton\u00eb drith\u00ebra n\u00eb muaj\u201d, thot\u00eb Mykola Solskiy, ministri i Bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb. \u201cMuajin e kaluar, ne arrit\u00ebm t\u00eb nxjerrim vet\u00ebm 1.1 milion ton\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
Vikas Kumar Singh, fermer n\u00eb Dharauli, nj\u00eb fshat n\u00eb Uttar Pradesh, rreth 700 km n\u00eb juglindje t\u00eb Delhit, nuk ka pse t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsohet p\u00ebr bomba. Por edhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb, muaji mars ka qen\u00eb i trazuar. \u201cI nxehti erdhi shum\u00eb her\u00ebt\u201d, shpjegon ai, duke marr\u00eb nj\u00eb grusht gruri t\u00eb korrur s\u00eb fundmi, me nj\u00eb pamje t\u00eb d\u00ebshp\u00ebruar n\u00eb fytyr\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cShikoni, kokrrat jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb holla se zakonisht\u201d. Pasi u godit nga er\u00ebrat e forta dhe bresh\u00ebri n\u00eb shkurt, rrethi Chandauli ku ndodhet fshati Dharauli, p\u00ebrjetoi nj\u00eb mot tep\u00ebr t\u00eb nxeht\u00eb, q\u00eb tkurri kallinjt\u00eb e grurit n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb kur duhej t\u00eb ishin duke lul\u00ebzuar. E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb ndodhi n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb vendit. \u201cGj\u00ebrat jan\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb keq n\u00eb Maharashtra\u201d, thot\u00eb Awadh Bihari Singh, i cili punon aty pran\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Vikas Singh llogarit se rendimenti \u00ebsht\u00eb ulur me rreth nj\u00eb t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt\u00ebn n\u00eb krahasim me vitin e kaluar. Rrethi n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi ka korrur rreth nj\u00eb t\u00eb pest\u00ebn m\u00eb pak grur\u00eb se n\u00eb nj\u00eb vit normal, llogarit Awadh Singh.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrpara val\u00ebs s\u00eb t\u00eb nxehtit, qeveria kishte pritur me padurim q\u00eb monedha indiane t\u00eb forcohej nga eksportet e drith\u00ebrave. Kur pritshm\u00ebrit\u00eb p\u00ebr sasin\u00eb e t\u00eb korrave ran\u00eb, monedha u zhvler\u00ebsua. Rritja e eksporteve e nxitur nga \u00e7mimet e larta jasht\u00eb vendit, shtoi shqet\u00ebsimet p\u00ebr mungesat n\u00eb vend.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb 13 maj, qeveria indiane vendosi t\u00eb ndalonte eksportin e grurit, megjith\u00ebse thot\u00eb se do t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb p\u00ebrjashtime p\u00ebr disa vende n\u00eb nevoj\u00eb; m\u00eb 15 maj u raportua nj\u00eb marr\u00ebveshje me Egjiptin p\u00ebr 500,000 ton\u00eb drith\u00ebra. Aktualisht, 26 vende zbatojn\u00eb kufizime t\u00eb r\u00ebnda p\u00ebr eksportet e ushqimit. N\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e rasteve, k\u00ebto jan\u00eb ndalime t\u00eb plota. Masat e ndryshme kufizuese mbulojn\u00eb 15% t\u00eb kalorive t\u00eb tregtuara n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Duhet nj\u00eb bot\u00eb e t\u00ebr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushqyer nj\u00eb glob, dhe bota e realizon k\u00ebt\u00eb p\u00ebrmes tregtis\u00eb. Sipas disa vler\u00ebsimeve, kat\u00ebr t\u00eb pestat e popullsis\u00eb globale, jeton n\u00eb vende q\u00eb jan\u00eb importuese neto t\u00eb ushqimit. M\u00eb shum\u00eb se 20% e kalorive t\u00eb bot\u00ebs dhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 18% e grurit t\u00eb saj, kalon t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn nj\u00eb kufi n\u00eb udh\u00ebtimin nga parmenda n\u00eb pjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fillim t\u00eb vitit 2022, sistemi bot\u00ebror i cili b\u00ebn t\u00eb mundur k\u00ebt\u00eb, ishte tashm\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb situt\u266a7 t\u00eb shtr\u00ebnguar. Sipas Programit Bot\u00ebror t\u00eb Ushqimit (WFP) t\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb, numri i njer\u00ebzve q\u00eb vuanin nga mungesa ushqimore deri n\u00eb at\u00eb pik\u00eb sa t\u2019u rrezikohej jeta, ishte rritur nga 108 milion\u00eb, n\u00eb 193 milion\u00eb, gjat\u00eb pes\u00eb viteve t\u00eb fundit.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e arsyes p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb rritje t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme t\u00eb \u201cpasiguris\u00eb akute ushqimore\u201d ishte pandemia Covid-19, e cila uli t\u00eb ardhurat dhe nd\u00ebrpreu pun\u00ebn n\u00eb ferma si dhe zinxhir\u00ebt e furnizimit.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr faktor ishte rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb energjis\u00eb dhe transportit detar. Gj\u00ebrat u p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuan nga gripi i derrave n\u00eb Kin\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb s\u00ebr\u00eb korrjesh t\u00eb k\u00ebqija n\u00eb vendet eksportuese, disa prej t\u00eb cilave u shkaktuan nga La Ni\u00f1a q\u00eb nisi n\u00eb mesin e vitit 2020. La Ni\u00f1a \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb term q\u00eb u referohet rrymave t\u00eb er\u00ebs brenda dhe jasht\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorit ekuatorial, t\u00eb cilat kan\u00eb efekte mbar\u00ebbot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n Rezervat globale t\u00eb grurit ishin pa dyshim, mjaft t\u00eb larta. Por ato ishin kryesisht n\u00eb duart e vendeve t\u00eb pasura importuese, jo ato t\u00eb eksportuesve q\u00eb ishin t\u00eb prirur t\u2019i shisnin ose importuesve t\u00eb varf\u00ebr q\u00eb mund t\u00eb kishin nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr to. \u201cN\u00ebse nuk e trajtojm\u00eb situat\u00ebn menj\u00ebher\u00eb, \u2013 tha David Beasley, i cili drejton WFP-n\u00eb, \u2013 gjat\u00eb n\u00ebnt\u00eb muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, do t\u00eb ket\u00eb zi buke, destabilizim t\u00eb kombeve dhe migrim masiv\u201d.<\/p>\n Vet\u00ebm gjasht\u00eb dit\u00eb pasi ai tha k\u00ebto fjal\u00eb, Rusia dha nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr goditje t\u00eb madhe. N\u00eb vitin 2021, Rusia dhe Ukraina ishin p\u00ebrkat\u00ebsisht eksportuesit e par\u00eb dhe t\u00eb pest\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj n\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb grurit, duke transportuar secili nga 39 milion\u00eb dhe 17 milion\u00eb ton\u00eb grur\u00eb, plot 28% t\u00eb tregut bot\u00ebror.<\/p>\n Dy shtetet gjithashtu kultivojn\u00eb shum\u00eb drith\u00ebra q\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushqyer kafsh\u00ebt, si misri dhe elbi, dhe jan\u00eb prodhuesi num\u00ebr nj\u00eb (Ukraina) dhe numri dy (Rusia) i farave t\u00eb lulediellit, q\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb 11.5% t\u00eb tregut t\u00eb vajit bimor. Ata ofrojn\u00eb pothuajse nj\u00eb t\u00eb tet\u00ebn e kalorive t\u00eb tregtuara n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Eksportet e ushqimit ukrainas u frenuan menj\u00ebher\u00eb nga lufta; ato ruse u d\u00ebmtuan nga efektet e sanksioneve. \u00c7mimet e grurit u rrit\u00ebn. M\u00eb 16 maj, dit\u00ebn e par\u00eb t\u00eb tregtimit pasi India vendosi kufizimet e saj, \u00e7mimet e grurit n\u00eb \u00c7ikago u rrit\u00ebn me 6%; m\u00eb 18 maj, ishin 39% m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se kur Rusia nisi pushtimin.<\/p>\n Departamenti Amerikan i Bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb (USDA) vler\u00ebson se lufta dhe moti i keq do t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb q\u00eb prodhimi global i grurit t\u00eb bjer\u00eb p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb kat\u00ebr vjet. M\u00eb e keqja \u00ebsht\u00eb se gruri n\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb nuk tregtohet globalisht. Bler\u00ebsit shpesh kan\u00eb marr\u00ebdh\u00ebnie t\u00eb gjata dypal\u00ebshe me eksportuesit dhe vendosin kanale tregtare q\u00eb e b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb nd\u00ebrrimin e furnizuesve. Sipas Organizat\u00ebs s\u00eb OKB-s\u00eb p\u00ebr Ushqimin dhe Bujq\u00ebsin\u00eb (FAO), gati 50 shtete varen nga Rusia ose Ukraina, ose nga t\u00eb dyja, p\u00ebr m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 30% t\u00eb importeve t\u00eb grurit; p\u00ebr 26 prej tyre, kjo shif\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb mbi 50%.<\/p>\n Si u arrit deri k\u00ebtu?<\/strong><\/p>\n Vendet e Azis\u00eb Lindore si Indonezia, q\u00eb importojn\u00eb shum\u00eb grur\u00eb nga Deti i Zi, mund ta z\u00ebvend\u00ebsojn\u00eb pa problem grurin me oriz. P\u00ebr shumic\u00ebn e importuesve t\u00eb tjer\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj, nd\u00ebrprerja e grurit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshinte ndryshime drastike n\u00eb diet\u00eb.<\/p>\n Shum\u00eb vende n\u00eb Gjirin Persik dhe n\u00eb Afrik\u00ebn Veriore, konsumojn\u00eb dy her\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb buk\u00eb p\u00ebr person sesa amerikan\u00ebt. Disa drith\u00ebra mund t\u00eb merren nga tregjet e tjera me \u00e7mimin e duhur dhe qeverit\u00eb europiane po k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb aktive marr\u00ebveshje: \u201cGjith\u00e7ka \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb tryez\u00eb\u201d, thot\u00eb nj\u00eb prodhues i madh francez.<\/p>\n Pothuajse e sigurt se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb mungesa<\/strong><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb pothuajse e sigurt se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb mungesa. WFP-ja, nga e cila varen m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 115 milion\u00eb njer\u00ebz dhe vitin e kaluar mori 50% t\u00eb grurit t\u00eb saj nga Ukraina, thot\u00eb se kriza mund t\u00eb shtyj\u00eb 47 milion\u00eb njer\u00ebz m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb pasiguri akute ushqimore.<\/p>\n Lufta po ndikon edhe n\u00eb gj\u00ebrat q\u00eb u nevojiten fermer\u00ebve p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur ushqimin. Fermat funksionojn\u00eb me karburant. P\u00ebr shkak se Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb eksportuesja m\u00eb e madhe e gazit natyror n\u00eb bot\u00eb dhe eksportuesja e dyt\u00eb m\u00eb e madhe e naft\u00ebs, \u00e7mimet e karburantit jan\u00eb rritur.<\/p>\n Fermat gjithashtu kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr pleh. Nga tre llojet kryesore t\u00eb plehrave industriale, Rusia \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb eksportuese e madhe: m\u00eb e madhja p\u00ebr plehrat me baz\u00eb azoti, e dyta m\u00eb e madhe p\u00ebr plehrat me baz\u00eb potasiumi dhe e treta p\u00ebr plehrat me baz\u00eb fosfati. \u00cbsht\u00eb rritur edhe \u00e7mimi i pesticideve dhe herbicideve, shpesh t\u00eb prodhuara nga hidrokarburet.<\/p>\n Ekziston nj\u00eb hije tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb i paraprin luft\u00ebs dhe q\u00eb do ta zgjas\u00eb at\u00eb. T\u00eb korrat e mira kan\u00eb nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr mot t\u00eb mir\u00eb, ose t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn t\u00eb moderuar. Ato d\u00ebmtohen nga moti ekstrem. Analiza nga firma britanike Met Office, tregon se ngrohja globale ka b\u00ebr\u00eb q\u00eb nj\u00eb val\u00eb e nxeht\u00eb ekstreme indiane si ajo e k\u00ebtij viti, t\u00eb jet\u00eb 100 her\u00eb m\u00eb e mundshme n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen.<\/p>\n P\u00ebrmbytja q\u00eb i detyroi fermer\u00ebt kinez\u00eb t\u00eb vononin mbjelljen e grurit vitin e kaluar, duke reduktuar korrjen e pritshme t\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti, dhe nxeht\u00ebsia e m\u00ebvonshme n\u00eb Indi, mund t\u00eb mos ken\u00eb ndonj\u00eb lidhje t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb.<\/p>\n Por kur probabiliteti i ekstremeve rritet n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn, po ashtu rritet edhe probabiliteti q\u00eb rajone t\u00eb shumta t\u00eb vuajn\u00eb nga nj\u00eb lloj ekstremi ose nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, ose n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn korniz\u00eb kohore.<\/p>\n Dhe kornizat kohore kan\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsi. Edhe pse shum\u00eb mallra mund t\u00eb prodhohen gjat\u00eb gjith\u00eb vitit, t\u00eb korrat varen nga stin\u00ebt. N\u00ebse humbet afati p\u00ebr disa hapa t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm, si mbjellja, pleh\u00ebrimi ose korrja, pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e pun\u00ebs s\u00eb nj\u00eb viti, mund t\u00eb humbas\u00eb brenda disa jav\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimi kur b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr grurin e Ukrain\u00ebs. Duke qen\u00eb se \u00ebsht\u00eb mbjell\u00eb vitin e kaluar, do t\u00eb jet\u00eb gati p\u00ebr korrje n\u00eb qershor. Zoti Solskiy pret q\u00eb korrja e k\u00ebtij viti t\u00eb jet\u00eb 20-30% m\u00eb e ul\u00ebt se sa pritej.<\/p>\n P\u00ebraf\u00ebrsisht gjysma e fushave me grur\u00eb jan\u00eb pjes\u00ebrisht t\u00eb pushtuara. N\u00eb shum\u00eb fusha ndodhen ende eksploziv\u00eb. Infrastruktura \u00ebsht\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar. Uji, energjia dhe karburanti mungojn\u00eb.<\/p>\n Rendimenti n\u00eb fushat q\u00eb mund t\u00eb korren, do t\u00eb ulet me 10%. Dhe p\u00ebr sa koh\u00eb q\u00eb Odessa \u00ebsht\u00eb e bllokuar, t\u00eb korrat nuk do t\u00eb ken\u00eb rrug\u00eb p\u00ebr n\u00eb treg. Ato as nuk mund t\u00eb ruhen. P\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb bllokad\u00ebs, gjysma e kapanoneve t\u00eb vendit jan\u00eb mbushur me t\u00eb korrat e vitit t\u00eb kaluar. N\u00ebse eksportet p\u00ebrmes Detit t\u00eb Zi nuk fillojn\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebri, me miliona ton\u00eb grur\u00eb mund t\u00eb kalben.<\/p>\n T\u00eb korrat e ardhshme<\/strong><\/p>\n T\u00eb korrat n\u00eb fushat ruse duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendje m\u00eb t\u00eb mir\u00eb. Sanksionet nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare nuk synojn\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt eksportet e ushqimit dhe megjith\u00ebse e b\u00ebjn\u00eb tregtin\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb, Rusia mund t\u00eb sajoj\u00eb m\u00ebnyra p\u00ebr t\u00eb kap\u00ebrcyer dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur problemet q\u00eb ato krijojn\u00eb.<\/p>\n Megjith\u00ebse eksportet kan\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00eb me disa milion\u00eb ton\u00eb, Rusia ka arritur t\u00eb shes\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb drith\u00ebra sesa prisnin ekspert\u00ebt q\u00eb nga fillimi i luft\u00ebs. Egjipti, Irani, Siria dhe Turqia, kan\u00eb qen\u00eb bler\u00ebsit e saj kryesor\u00eb.<\/p>\n Pjesa tjet\u00ebr e bot\u00ebs nuk mund ta kompensoj\u00eb dot munges\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Kina ka paralajm\u00ebruar se p\u00ebrmbytjet e vitit t\u00eb kaluar, do t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb q\u00eb prodhimi i grurit t\u00eb mbjell\u00eb n\u00eb dim\u00ebr, t\u00eb jet\u00eb \u201cm\u00eb i keqi n\u00eb histori\u201d. Pjesa m\u00eb e madhe e kultivimeve t\u00eb grurit n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, po kalojn\u00eb nj\u00eb that\u00ebsir\u00eb po aq t\u00eb keqe sa n\u00eb vitet 2012-\u201813.<\/p>\n Rreth 40% e grurit q\u00eb rritet n\u00eb fushat e thara t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, u konsiderua n\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb keqe ose shum\u00eb t\u00eb keqe (mesatarja \u00ebsht\u00eb 15-20%). M\u00eb 12 maj, SHBA parashikoi se prodhimi i grurit t\u00eb kuq t\u00eb fort\u00eb, lloji kryesor i kultivuar n\u00eb rrafshnalta, do t\u00eb binte me 21%, krahasuar me vitin 2021.<\/p>\n Europa po p\u00ebrjeton shum\u00eb pak shi n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment kritik. Nj\u00eb shi i vonuar mund t\u00eb mjaftoj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb ringjallur t\u00eb korrat, por duket e sigurt se prodhimi do t\u00eb jet\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht i dob\u00ebt k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n Ka ende stoqe n\u00eb vendet eksportuese q\u00eb mund t\u00eb zbusin situat\u00ebn. Nick Schaefer, i cili punon n\u00eb Rugby, n\u00eb North Dacoda, thot\u00eb se 40 deri n\u00eb 50 kamion\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb transportojn\u00eb grur\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u ngarkuar n\u00eb trenat q\u00eb do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb per\u00ebndim.<\/p>\n Normalisht, fermer\u00ebt do t\u00eb kishin nj\u00eb nxitje p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur rezervat para korrjes, kur \u00e7mimet zakonisht bien. Por k\u00ebt\u00eb vit kjo nuk duket se ka gjasa t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb. Tregjet parashikojn\u00eb q\u00eb \u00e7mimet e grurit dhe t\u00eb misrit t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb n\u00eb nivelet zhvat\u00ebse t\u00eb sotme deri n\u00eb mesin e vitit 2023. Zoti Solskiy thot\u00eb se kur t\u00eb korrat t\u00eb mos i ndryshojn\u00eb dot gj\u00ebrat, at\u00ebher\u00eb bota do t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb ndiej\u00eb ndikimin e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs.<\/p>\n \u201cK\u00ebt\u00eb sezon, nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballohet dot asnj\u00eb problem moti n\u00eb Hemisfer\u00ebn Veriore\u201d, thot\u00eb nj\u00eb tregtar. Nd\u00ebrsa prodhimi i Ukrain\u00ebs mbetet i paarritsh\u00ebm, \u201c\u00e7do ton n\u00eb treg \u00ebsht\u00eb i vyer\u201d, thot\u00eb Michael Magdovitz nga Rabobank, nj\u00eb bank\u00eb holandeze. Ky bashkim i ngusht\u00eb i ofert\u00ebs dhe k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs, n\u00ebnkupton se \u00e7mimet do t\u00eb jen\u00eb gjithashtu shum\u00eb t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshme, duke u luhatur qoft\u00eb edhe nga lajmi m\u00eb i vog\u00ebl.<\/p>\n Po \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb me t\u00eb korrat pas k\u00ebtij viti? Sipas zotit Nazarenko, fillimisht duhen \u00e7rr\u00ebnjosur pasojat e luft\u00ebs. Ai eci n\u00ebp\u00ebr fusha me nj\u00eb num\u00ebr punonj\u00ebsish, miqsh dhe t\u00eb af\u00ebrmish, duke hequr g\u00ebzhojat dhe disa predha t\u00eb pashp\u00ebrthyera, duke sh\u00ebnuar minat e pashp\u00ebrthyera, dhe duke nxjerr\u00eb nj\u00eb raket\u00eb \u201cSmerch\u201d nga balta, e cila kishte zhytur nj\u00eb traktor. \u201cIshte e frikshme, por ne nuk kishim zgjidhje tjet\u00ebr\u201d, thot\u00eb ai.<\/p>\n N\u00eb fund, ai arriti t\u00eb mbillte pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb arave. Shumica e njer\u00ebzve nuk e kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb. Disave u mungojn\u00eb farat. Disa duhet t\u00eb mbjellin nat\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur sulmet ajrore. Disa t\u00eb tjer\u00eb po mbjellin patate p\u00ebr konsum sht\u00ebpiak dhe jo drith\u00ebra p\u00ebr eksport.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb studim i fundit nga Ministria e Bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb e Ukrain\u00ebs, tregon se 30-50% e fushave me grur\u00eb n\u00eb vend, mund t\u00eb mos jen\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatshme p\u00ebr kultivim. Do t\u00eb ket\u00eb probleme edhe me rendimentin. Plehrat kimike nuk mungojn\u00eb ende, por disa mund t\u00eb rip\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb prodhuar eksploziv\u00eb, si nitrati i amonit. Nafta \u00ebsht\u00eb dyfishuar n\u00eb \u00e7mim q\u00eb para luft\u00ebs dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb ta gjesh at\u00eb edhe n\u00ebse mund ta paguash. Pesticidet duket se jan\u00eb t\u00eb pakta.<\/p>\n Problemet me mungesat<\/strong><\/p>\n Fermer\u00ebt rus\u00eb nuk po p\u00ebrballen me problemet e bombardimeve, por edhe ata do t\u00eb ken\u00eb mungesa. Fermat e m\u00ebdha t\u00eb vendit, t\u00eb cilat specializohen n\u00eb furnizimin e tregjeve globale me grur\u00eb, k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb shum\u00eb burime par\u00ebsore. Vitin e kaluar, Rusia importoi pesticide me vler\u00eb 870 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb dhe fara me vler\u00eb 410 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb, kryesisht nga BE-ja.<\/p>\n Financimi i pak\u00ebt nga bankat, problemet me pagesat dhe mungesa e transportuesve, po i b\u00ebjn\u00eb blerje t\u00eb tilla shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira. Shumica e kompanive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb farave dhe kimikateve, jan\u00eb t\u00ebrhequr nga Rusia, ose jan\u00eb n\u00eb proces e sip\u00ebr (ato kineze kan\u00eb q\u00ebndruar). Disa mund t\u00eb kthehen pas p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs, por disa mund t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb larg.<\/p>\n Plehrat kimike nuk do t\u00eb mungojn\u00eb p\u00ebr rus\u00ebt. Por do t\u00eb mungojn\u00eb n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e vendeve t\u00eb tjera. N\u00eb vitin 2021, 25 shtete mor\u00ebn m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 30% t\u00eb plehrave t\u00eb tyre kimike nga Rusia.<\/p>\n N\u00eb Europ\u00eb, shqet\u00ebsimet e siguris\u00eb s\u00eb energjis\u00eb po kufizojn\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimin e gazit natyror p\u00ebr t\u00eb prodhuar plehra kimike me baz\u00eb azoti, k\u00ebshtu q\u00eb kontinentit do t\u2019i duhet t\u00eb importoj\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb, duke shtuar k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb treg ku \u00e7mimi i gazit natyror ka rritur tashm\u00eb kostot e shumic\u00ebs s\u00eb prodhuesve.<\/p>\n Nigeria dhe Katari, q\u00eb kan\u00eb gaz natyror me boll\u00ebk, po hapin impiante t\u00eb reja t\u00eb azotit. Gjithashtu duket se ka hap\u00ebsir\u00eb p\u00ebr rritjen e prodhimit t\u00eb potasiumit n\u00eb Kanada. Por \u00e7mimet do t\u00eb mbeten t\u00eb larta.<\/p>\n Energjia dhe plehrat kimike m\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshme, rrisin \u00e7mimet n\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha llojet e bujq\u00ebsis\u00eb. Fermer\u00ebt n\u00eb Chandauli thon\u00eb se \u00e7mimet e larta p\u00ebr plehra kimike, naft\u00eb dhe fuqi pun\u00ebtore, kan\u00eb rritur kostot e tyre me 20-25% deri tani k\u00ebt\u00eb vit. Dhe \u00e7mimet e grurit kan\u00eb efekte edhe n\u00eb treg. N\u00ebse kostoja e nj\u00eb malli rritet, konsumator\u00ebt k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb alternativa.<\/p>\n Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb arsyeja pse inflacioni i \u00e7mimit t\u00eb ushqimeve po vihet re edhe n\u00eb mallrat q\u00eb nuk ndikohen drejtp\u00ebrdrejt nga lufta, thot\u00eb Seth Meyer, kryeekonomisti i SHBA-s\u00eb. Treguesit e paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiluar nga Instituti Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar i K\u00ebrkimit t\u00eb Politikave Ushqimore n\u00eb Uashington, kan\u00eb dh\u00ebn\u00eb sinjalin p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjitha drith\u00ebrat kryesore, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb, gjat\u00eb dy muajve t\u00eb fundit, edhe orizin, p\u00ebr t\u00eb cilin aktualisht nuk ka shqet\u00ebsime p\u00ebr furnizimin.<\/p>\n Pa rendiment dhe pa p\u00ebrfitim<\/strong><\/p>\n E gjith\u00eb kjo sh\u00ebrben p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur nj\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje t\u00eb natyrshme ndaj \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb larta t\u00eb grurit: q\u00eb fermer\u00ebt t\u00eb kultivojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb drith\u00ebra. Kur \u00e7mimet e inputeve rriten m\u00eb shum\u00eb se \u00e7mimet e grurit, marzhet e fitimit t\u00eb fermer\u00ebve bien. Josef Schmidhuber nga firma Fao, llogarit se \u00e7mimi i drith\u00ebrave dhe i ushqimit n\u00eb p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsi, arriti kulmin n\u00eb mars 2021. Q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb, ai ka r\u00ebn\u00eb me 27%.<\/p>\n N\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb nxitojn\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbjell\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb drith\u00ebra ngaq\u00eb \u00e7mimi i shitjes duket i lart\u00eb, fermer\u00ebt duhet t\u00eb kalojn\u00eb n\u00eb kultivimet me kosto m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb inputeve.<\/p>\n N\u00eb mars, nj\u00eb studim nga UDSA zbuloi se shum\u00eb kultivues amerikan\u00eb synonin t\u00eb kalonin nga misri te soja, k\u00ebt\u00eb sezon. \u00c7mimet e drith\u00ebrave mund t\u00eb rriten edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb, duke i joshur fermer\u00ebt t\u00eb rikthehen. Por ato gjithashtu ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb mbeten shum\u00eb t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshme, duke i privuar kultivuesit nga siguria q\u00eb u nevojitet p\u00ebr t\u00eb planifikuar nj\u00eb zgjerim t\u00eb madh.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb rritet oferta, at\u00ebher\u00eb pse t\u00eb mos ulet k\u00ebrkesa? Gro Intelligence, nj\u00eb firm\u00eb e t\u00eb dh\u00ebnave, llogarit se kalorit\u00eb e devijuara nga prodhimi aktual i biokarburanteve, s\u00eb shpejti mund t\u00eb jen\u00eb ekuivalente me nevojat vjetore t\u00eb 1.9 miliard\u00eb njer\u00ebzve.<\/p>\n Prodhimi i biokarburanteve \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, Brazil dhe Europ\u00eb, pasi \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur. Nafta e shtrenjt\u00eb bruto e b\u00ebn sektorin m\u00eb fitimprur\u00ebs.<\/p>\n Sasia e ushqimit t\u00eb ngr\u00ebn\u00eb nga kafsh\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe m\u00eb e madhe. Vitin e kaluar, Kina importoi nj\u00eb rekord prej 28 milion\u00eb ton\u00ebsh mis\u00ebr \u2013 m\u00eb shum\u00eb se sa eksporton Ukraina n\u00eb nj\u00eb vit \u2013 p\u00ebr t\u00eb ushqyer tuf\u00ebn e saj t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb derrave. Rreth 40% e grurit t\u00eb rritur n\u00eb BE hahet nga lop\u00ebt. Rreth nj\u00eb e treta e misrit t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs hahet nga bag\u00ebtit\u00eb.<\/p>\n N\u00ebse sasia e nj\u00eb ushqimi t\u00eb till\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet, kafsh\u00ebt rriten m\u00eb pak, ose m\u00eb ngadal\u00eb, ose t\u00eb dyja. Kjo rrit \u00e7mimin e produktit p\u00ebrfundimtar. Gjat\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb ushqimeve t\u00eb viteve 2007-\u201808, ndryshimet n\u00eb ushqimin e kafsh\u00ebve, s\u00eb bashku me shkat\u00ebrrimin dhe uljet e prodhimit, shkaktuan rritje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb mishit dhe t\u00eb qum\u00ebshtit.<\/p>\n Asnj\u00eb vend nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb imun ndaj efekteve t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj krize. Fatkeq\u00ebsisht, njer\u00ebzit jan\u00eb t\u00eb uritur edhe n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura. Por vendet e goditura m\u00eb keq, jan\u00eb ato t\u00eb varfra, sepse njer\u00ebzit e varf\u00ebr shpenzojn\u00eb nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr ushqim.<\/p>\n N\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e tregjeve n\u00eb zhvillim, ushqimi konsumon rreth nj\u00eb t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt\u00ebn e buxheteve familjare, n\u00eb krahasim me m\u00eb pak se nj\u00eb t\u00eb pest\u00ebn n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb e p\u00ebrparuara. N\u00eb Afrik\u00ebn N\u00ebnsahariane, kjo shif\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb 40%. Dhe gruri p\u00ebrb\u00ebn nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb atyre buxheteve sesa n\u00eb vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb pasura.<\/p>\n Shum\u00eb nga k\u00ebto ekonomi ishin n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb keqe edhe p\u00ebrpara se t\u00eb godiste kriza ushqimore. N\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Afrik\u00ebn N\u00ebnsahariane, prodhimi mbetet n\u00ebn nivelin para-pandemik. Ngarkesat e borxhit t\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysm\u00ebs s\u00eb ekonomive me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb ul\u00ebta t\u00eb rajonit, jan\u00eb t\u00eb paq\u00ebndrueshme ose mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhen t\u00eb tilla s\u00eb shpejti, sipas FMN-s\u00eb. Qeverit\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb pozicionuara keq p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar qytetar\u00ebt t\u00eb p\u00ebrballojn\u00eb nj\u00eb tronditje t\u00eb \u00e7mimit t\u00eb ushqimit.<\/p>\n Reagimet ndaj \u00e7mimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb ushqimeve n\u00eb vendet e pasura, po i b\u00ebjn\u00eb gj\u00ebrat edhe m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira. \u00c7mimet e ushqimeve p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb rreth 1.3 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb norm\u00ebs s\u00eb inflacionit prej 8.3% n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb dhe rreth 1.0 pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb norm\u00ebs 7.4% n\u00eb Eurozon\u00eb.<\/p>\n Pra, ato jan\u00eb nj\u00eb nga faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb nxisin politika monetare m\u00eb agresive. Normat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit t\u00eb vendeve t\u00eb pasura zhvler\u00ebsojn\u00eb monedhat dhe shtr\u00ebngojn\u00eb kushtet financiare n\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb n\u00eb zhvillim. R\u00ebnia e monedhave i b\u00ebn importet e ushqimeve akoma m\u00eb t\u00eb kushtueshme.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr t\u00eb forcuar monedhat e tyre, vende t\u00eb tilla duhet t\u00eb rrisin normat e interesit, t\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyjn\u00eb me rezervat e tyre n\u00eb valut\u00eb, ose pak nga t\u00eb dyja. T\u00eb gjitha k\u00ebto alternativa shoq\u00ebrohen me kosto q\u00eb mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsojn\u00eb pasigurin\u00eb ushqimore.<\/p>\n Rritja e normave t\u00eb interesit, n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e rasteve, vet\u00ebm sa ka ngadal\u00ebsuar ritmin e zhvler\u00ebsimit t\u00eb monedhave dhe ka rritur koston e kredis\u00eb \u2013 gj\u00eb q\u00eb i d\u00ebmton fermer\u00ebt, ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht kur inputet jan\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta. P\u00ebrdorimi i rezervave valutore, nga ana tjet\u00ebr, n\u00ebnkupton se ato nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb bler\u00eb ushqime. Zgjedhja p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos subvencionuar ushqimin dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb mos mb\u00ebshtetur monedh\u00ebn, mund t\u00eb ruaj\u00eb rezervat, por rrit shum\u00eb rreziqet e trazirave sociale.<\/p>\n \u00cbsht\u00eb e mundur q\u00eb t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht nj\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsim t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs dhe humbje t\u00eb rezervave. Egjipti vendosi t\u00eb lejoj\u00eb q\u00eb paundi egjiptian t\u00eb zhvler\u00ebsohej me 14% n\u00eb mars, n\u00eb vend q\u00eb t\u00eb zvog\u00eblonte rezervat e tij p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar monedh\u00ebn.<\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, rezervat e vendit n\u00eb valut\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb ran\u00eb me rreth 10%, n\u00eb 37 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb, nga shkurti n\u00eb mars. Edhe Turqia ka p\u00ebsuar r\u00ebnie si t\u00eb rezervave, ashtu edhe t\u00eb vler\u00ebs s\u00eb monedh\u00ebs s\u00eb saj, q\u00eb nga fillimi i vitit. Norma e inflacionit atje \u00ebsht\u00eb rritur n\u00eb rreth 70%. N\u00eb Iran ka pasur protesta q\u00eb nga reduktimi i subvencioneve t\u00eb drith\u00ebrave. Problemi duket se do t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapet.<\/p>\n Banka Bot\u00ebrore vler\u00ebson se efektet e luft\u00ebs n\u00eb tregti dhe n\u00eb mir\u00ebqenie, do t\u00eb p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb reduktim t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave reale globale me rreth 0.74%, ose 600 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb. N\u00eb ekonomit\u00eb me t\u00eb ardhura t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, kjo shif\u00ebr shkon n\u00eb 1.0%, q\u00eb duke pasur parasysh t\u00eb ardhurat e tyre t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, ajo p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson rreth 5 miliard\u00eb dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n Kjo shif\u00ebr ting\u00ebllon mjaft e vog\u00ebl. Por p\u00ebrqendrimi i k\u00ebtyre humbjeve n\u00eb vendet e rr\u00ebnuara nga uria, duket se do t\u00eb sjell\u00eb me vete d\u00ebme t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme sociale, politike dhe njer\u00ebzore.\/ Monitor<\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/378827-1187191-raikfcquaxqncofqfm.stackpathdns.com\/images\/2022\/06\/Ende-nuk-ka-perfunduar-1035.jpg\")
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