Rreziku b\u00ebrthamor. Kjo luft\u00eb nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb b\u00ebhet b\u00ebrthamore. Por po rrit rrezikun q\u00eb t\u00eb ndodhin luft\u00ebra b\u00ebrthamore n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen, shkruan The Economist<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
N\u00eb vitin 1999, Nina Tannenwald, nj\u00eb shkenc\u00ebtare politike n\u00eb Universitetin Brown, hartoi nj\u00eb studim, duke analizuar di\u00e7ka q\u00eb ajo kishte v\u00ebrejtur mes gjeneral\u00ebve, politikan\u00ebve dhe strateg\u00ebve: \u201ctabun\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore\u201d.
Sipas saj, kjo tabu nuk ishte thjesht nj\u00eb shqet\u00ebsim i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm apo shqet\u00ebsim moral personal.<\/p>\n
Ajo kishte efekte t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme. Mungesa e luft\u00ebrave b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb nga shkat\u00ebrrimi i Hiroshim\u00ebs dhe Nagasakit, nuk ka qen\u00eb thjesht nj\u00eb \u00e7\u00ebshtje parandaluese. Nj\u00eb rol t\u00eb r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm ka pasur edhe ndjesia se p\u00ebrdorimi i arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore \u00ebsht\u00eb i gabuar.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebrc\u00ebnimet e sulmeve b\u00ebrthamore, si ato t\u00eb viteve 1940 dhe 1950, ishin b\u00ebr\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht t\u00eb rralla. Me forcimin e tabus\u00eb, d\u00ebshira p\u00ebr t\u00eb prodhuar arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore shihej si shenj\u00eb e munges\u00ebs s\u00eb qytet\u00ebrimit dhe shmangia e p\u00ebrmendjes s\u00eb arm\u00ebve, ishte shenj\u00eb morali.<\/p>\n
Por n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb q\u00ebndrim kishte nj\u00ebfar\u00eb hipokrizie, q\u00eb aforisti francez La Rochefoucauld e ka quajtur: hara\u00e7i q\u00eb vesi i paguan virtytit.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb diskutimin mbi arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore n\u00eb form\u00ebn e tij m\u00eb t\u00eb sh\u00ebmtuar, mjafton t\u00eb ndiqni kanalin televiziv shtet\u00ebror Russia-1.<\/p>\n
\u201cVet\u00ebm nj\u00eb goditje e vetme, Boris\u201d, paralajm\u00ebroi m\u00eb 1 maj Dmitry Kiselev, prezantuesi kryesor i lajmeve n\u00eb kanalin rus, \u201cdhe Anglia do t\u00eb shuhet sa hap e mbyll syt\u00eb\u201d. N\u00eb rast se kryeministri britanik apo publiku kishin ndonj\u00eb dyshim mbi mesazhin e k\u00ebtyre fjal\u00ebve, zoti Kiselev parashtroi edhe mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e nj\u00eb sulmi t\u00eb till\u00eb b\u00ebrthamor.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00ebra ishte nj\u00eb raket\u00eb balistike nd\u00ebrkontinentale Sarmat (ICBM), q\u00eb shfaqej n\u00eb ekran, duke fluturuar drejt Britanis\u00eb. Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ishte nj\u00eb predh\u00eb termob\u00ebrthamore Poseidon, e projektuar p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar nj\u00eb cunami. \u201cN\u00ebse kalon mbi Ishujt Britanik\u00eb, kjo gj\u00eb do t\u00eb kthente gjith\u00e7ka n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkret\u00ebtir\u00eb radioaktive\u201d, tha zoti Kiselev.<\/p>\n
Kjo nuk ka qen\u00eb hera e vetme q\u00eb rus\u00ebt kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime t\u00eb tilla. \u201cRus\u00ebt po e shfryt\u00ebzojn\u00eb mir\u00eb efektin e frik\u00ebsimit\u201d, thot\u00eb doktor Tannenwald. \u201cVazhdimisht, zyrtar\u00ebt rus\u00eb po b\u00ebjn\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime t\u00eb qarta b\u00ebrthamore\u201d. Dhe k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime t\u00eb tilla shkojn\u00eb p\u00ebrtej transmetimeve televizive.<\/p>\n
Boris Bondarev, nj\u00eb diplomat n\u00eb misionin rus n\u00eb OKB n\u00eb Gjenev\u00eb, dha dor\u00ebheqjen m\u00eb 23 maj, n\u00eb shenj\u00eb proteste ndaj pushtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs. Ai tha p\u00ebr New York Times se ajo q\u00eb e kishte shqet\u00ebsuar m\u00eb shum\u00eb, ishte m\u00ebnyra e sh\u00ebmtuar sesi koleg\u00ebt e tij arg\u00ebtoheshin duke folur p\u00ebr luft\u00ebn b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n
\u201cAta mendojn\u00eb se n\u00ebse goditet ndonj\u00eb fshat n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, me nj\u00eb sulm b\u00ebrthamor, at\u00ebher\u00eb amerikan\u00ebt do t\u00eb tremben menj\u00ebher\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb m\u00ebshir\u00eb n\u00eb gjunj\u00eb\u201d, tha zoti Bondarev. \u201cK\u00ebshtu mendojn\u00eb shum\u00eb nga njer\u00ebzit tan\u00eb dhe kam frik\u00eb se ky do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet mendimi i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm n\u00eb Mosk\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n
Normat, traktatet, garancit\u00eb e nd\u00ebrsjella, zbutja, bindja, mekanizmat teknik\u00eb, frika dhe tabuja, t\u00eb cilat bashk\u00ebrisht kan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb q\u00eb bota t\u00eb mos p\u00ebrjetoj\u00eb tmerrin e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb nga viti 1945, po e humbisnin efektin edhe para se Vladimir Putin, t\u00eb paralajm\u00ebronte m\u00eb 24 shkurt, p\u00ebr \u201cpasoja\u2026 q\u00eb nuk i keni par\u00eb kurr\u00eb n\u00eb historin\u00eb e njer\u00ebzimit\u201d.<\/p>\n
Kontrolli<\/strong><\/p>\n P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket kontrollit t\u00eb arm\u00ebve, paktet midis Amerik\u00ebs dhe Rusis\u00eb kishin skaduar pothuajse t\u00eb gjitha. Rusia po prodhonte arm\u00eb t\u00eb reja, si Poseidon, t\u00eb cilat nuk mbuloheshin m\u00eb nga marr\u00ebveshjet q\u00eb kishin mbetur. Arsenali b\u00ebrthamor i Kin\u00ebs po zgjerohej me shpejt\u00ebsi.<\/p>\n P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket ndalimit t\u00eb p\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb arm\u00ebve, presioni nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar prej dekadash nuk kishte arritur ta pengonte Koren\u00eb e Veriut q\u00eb t\u00eb prodhonte arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore dhe m\u00eb pas t\u00eb rriste sofistikimin e tyre, dhe gam\u00ebn e sh\u00ebnjestrave kund\u00ebr t\u00eb cilave mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoreshin.<\/p>\n JCPOA, marr\u00ebveshja e vetme p\u00ebr mosp\u00ebrhapjen e arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore, e lidhur dekad\u00ebn e kaluar, sipas s\u00eb cil\u00ebs, Irani duhej t\u00eb kufizonte programin b\u00ebrthamor n\u00eb k\u00ebmbim t\u00eb leht\u00ebsimit t\u00eb sanksioneve, po varej n\u00eb nj\u00eb fije peri. Tani Republika Islamike \u00ebsht\u00eb bindur edhe m\u00eb tep\u00ebr p\u00ebr prodhimin e arm\u00ebve.<\/p>\n Mungesa e p\u00ebrparimit t\u00eb zotimeve p\u00ebr \u00e7armatim nga Amerika, Britania e Madhe, Kina, Franca dhe Rusia, shtetet e armatosura me arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb jan\u00eb pal\u00eb pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebse n\u00eb Traktatin e Mosp\u00ebrhapjes s\u00eb Arm\u00ebve B\u00ebrthamore (NPT), po vazhdon t\u00eb g\u00ebrryej\u00eb legjitimitetin e traktatit.<\/p>\n Pushtimi i Ukrain\u00ebs ka \u00e7ar\u00eb vrima t\u00eb tjera n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb p\u00eblhur\u00eb tashm\u00eb t\u00eb rreckosur. Teksa Rusia po kryen luft\u00eb dhe an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e NATO-s po i ofrojn\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs arm\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb forta p\u00ebr t\u2019u mbrojtur, ekziston nj\u00eb rrezik i vog\u00ebl, por i nj\u00ebmendt\u00eb, q\u00eb t\u00eb dyja pal\u00ebt t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihen n\u00eb nj\u00eb luft\u00eb q\u00eb p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzohet p\u00ebrtej pragut b\u00ebrthamor.<\/p>\n Ekziston gjithashtu frika se n\u00ebse gj\u00ebrat shkojn\u00eb shum\u00eb keq p\u00ebr Putinin, ai mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb nj\u00eb arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore p\u00ebr t\u00eb tronditur Ukrain\u00ebn, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb parandaloj\u00eb asgj\u00ebsimin e forcave t\u00eb armatosura ruse apo humbjen e Krimes\u00eb.<\/p>\n Ndjenja personale mjaft t\u00eb forta<\/strong><\/p>\n Ashp\u00ebrsia e k\u00ebtyre rreziqeve dhe m\u00ebnyra e trajtimit t\u00eb tyre \u00ebsht\u00eb debatuar pa pushim. Presidenti i Franc\u00ebs, Emmanuel Macron, ka paralajm\u00ebruar q\u00eb \u201ct\u00eb mos posht\u00ebrohet Rusia\u201d. Zyrtar\u00ebt polak\u00eb dhe t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Lindore, s\u00eb bashku me ata britanik\u00eb, kan\u00eb pretenduar se rreziqet e p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimit jan\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsuar m\u00eb tep\u00ebr nga Gjermania, Italia dhe Franca.<\/p>\n Por ndikimi i luft\u00ebs nuk ka t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb vet\u00ebm me pyetjen n\u00ebse arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore do t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb konflikt. B\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb edhe p\u00ebr efektin q\u00eb do t\u00eb ket\u00eb prania e tyre n\u00eb shtetet e tjera q\u00eb marrin vendime n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen. M\u00ebnyra se si mendohet dhe diskutohet p\u00ebr arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore, po ndryshon. Ajo q\u00eb po b\u00ebn Rusia, thot\u00eb doktor Tannenwald, \u201c\u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e d\u00ebmshme p\u00ebr tabun\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore\u201d.<\/p>\n Ky d\u00ebm \u00ebsht\u00eb pasoj\u00eb e neglizhenc\u00ebs s\u00eb m\u00ebparshme. Pasi Koreja e Veriut testoi nj\u00eb arm\u00eb ICBM q\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrinte Amerik\u00ebn n\u00eb vitin 2017, Donald Trump, presidenti i cili nuk donte t\u2019ia dinte p\u00ebr tabut\u00eb, e k\u00ebrc\u00ebnoi Koren\u00eb e Veriut me \u201czjarr dhe t\u00ebrbim q\u00eb bota nuk e ka par\u00eb asnj\u00ebher\u00eb\u201d.<\/p>\n N\u00eb vitin 2018, udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsi korean, Kim Jong Un, paralajm\u00ebroi se butoni b\u00ebrthamor ishte \u201cgjithmon\u00eb n\u00eb tryez\u00ebn e tij\u201d, nj\u00eb koment q\u00eb m\u00eb pas e shtyu zotin Trump t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigjej se butoni i tij b\u00ebrthamor ishte \u201cshum\u00eb m\u00eb i madh\u201d. N\u00eb nj\u00eb tubim elektoral n\u00eb vitin 2019, kryeministri i Indis\u00eb, Narendra Modi, u tall me pretendimin e Pakistanit se kishte arm\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb mund ta frenonin Indin\u00eb. \u201c\u00c7far\u00eb kujtoni ju se kemi ne at\u00ebher\u00eb?\u201d<\/p>\n Biseda t\u00eb tilla t\u00eb pamatura mund ta ken\u00eb origjin\u00ebn nga rrymat politike t\u00eb dekad\u00ebs s\u00eb kaluar, thon\u00eb Oliver Meier dhe Maren Vieluf nga Universiteti i Hamburgut.<\/p>\n Ata argumentojn\u00eb se udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit nacionalist\u00eb-populist\u00eb, nj\u00eb kategori ku p\u00ebrfshihen zot\u00ebrinjt\u00eb Putin, Trump dhe Modi, kan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb flasin n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb t\u00eb pap\u00ebrgjegjshme p\u00ebr arm\u00ebt b\u00ebrthamore.<\/p>\n Ma\u00e7izmi mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb shkak, po ashtu edhe flirtimi me t\u00eb path\u00ebn\u00ebn dhe p\u00ebrbuzja e p\u00ebrgjithshme p\u00ebr opinionin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar. N\u00eb mesin e elitave politike, zakonisht tabuja b\u00ebrthamore trajtohet m\u00eb seriozisht.<\/p>\n \u201cKy lloj diskutimi i hapur, redukton cil\u00ebsin\u00eb e tabus\u00eb s\u00eb arm\u00ebve b\u00ebrthamore p\u00ebr shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz\u201d, thot\u00eb Scott Sagan, shkenc\u00ebtar politik n\u00eb Universitetin Stanford. \u201cTashm\u00eb ka diskutime t\u00eb hapura rreth ep\u00ebrsis\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore dhe aft\u00ebsis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb fituar nj\u00eb luft\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore n\u00eb Wall Street Journal.<\/p>\n Kur njer\u00ebzit shkruajn\u00eb p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb tem\u00eb n\u00eb gazetat kryesore, ajo ka nj\u00eb ndikim n\u00eb perceptimin e publikut\u201d. Kur an\u00ebtar\u00ebt e administrat\u00ebs s\u00eb Ronald Reganit hodh\u00ebn ide mbi luft\u00ebrat b\u00ebrthamore q\u00eb mund t\u00eb fitoheshin n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 1980, kjo shkaktoi zem\u00ebrim t\u00eb gjer\u00eb. Tani, jo m\u00eb.<\/p>\n Nj\u00eb arsye mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb thjesht koha dhe harresa. Me p\u00ebrjashtim t\u00eb mbret\u00ebresh\u00ebs Elizabeth II, nuk ka njeri pran\u00eb korridoreve t\u00eb pushtetit q\u00eb ende kujton lajmet nga Hiroshima dhe Nagasaki. Pothuajse t\u00eb gjith\u00eb personat q\u00eb kan\u00eb qen\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb raketave kubaneze, tani jan\u00eb n\u00eb fund t\u00eb t\u00eb 60-ave.<\/p>\n Lufta e Ftoht\u00eb, e cila rriti tabun\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore, pasi Reagan dhe Mikhail Gorbachev u pajtuan se \u201cnj\u00eb luft\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore nuk mund t\u00eb fitohet dhe nuk duhet t\u00eb kryhet kurr\u00eb\u201d, tashm\u00eb ka ndikim t\u00eb pap\u00ebrfillsh\u00ebm n\u00eb opinionin publik.<\/p>\n
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