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The German Institute of Economics asked 48 branches of industry about their expectations for the new year. Optimism reigns almost everywhere. Only a few sectors expect difficult times.
Few companies in Germany will mourn for 2021. At the beginning of the year, the constant closure of public life made it difficult for many of them to work. Added to this were problems with the supply of raw materials and intermediate products. A new survey by the German Economic Institute (IW), an institute close to employers, shows that many things can be improved in the new year.
No decline in production is expected
Of the 48 economic associations surveyed, none expect a decline in production or business for their respective sector. A large majority, on the contrary, expects growth. In this context, researchers at the Institute of Economics speak of an “extraordinary waiting environment” for the German economy.
Positive ratings also prevail for investment and employment. The outlook for 2022 is generally driven by optimism, says Michael Hüther, director of the German Institute of Economics. However, some industries are expecting difficult times. “We are certainly affected by the pandemic in the tourism and fair sector,” explains Hütheri. It is not surprising either that the mining industry expects less investment and fewer employees, given the planned abandonment of coal-fired power generation.
Lack of supplies will be reduced
Many industrial enterprises are satisfied with the good condition of orders and the recovery of the global economy. Sectors such as the paper and glass processing industry, however, are concerned about the continuing shortage of materials. Economist Hüther, however, believes that supply difficulties could diminish next year, which is already being felt in some markets. However, for semiconductors, which are so important to the automotive industry, he expects long-term difficulties. According to Hüther, the shortage of skilled labor will also continue to create problems for enterprises, for example in the developing construction sector.
The effects of Omicron can not be predicted
The German Institute of Economics conducted the survey in early December. It was therefore still difficult for associations to predict the effects of the Omikron variant. In this context, a positive outlook for the future is accompanied by uncertainty, explains Hüther: “If there is a large shortage of manpower, and if this lasts longer, we will have to talk at length about difficulties of a different nature.” Therefore, the pandemic remains the main risk factor for the economic world./DW
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