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“Europe is now closer to war than it has been since the break-up of the former Yugoslavia,” a senior EU diplomat told the BBC on the current tensions with Moscow over the deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine.
The situation in Brussels is worrying, he says. There is a real fear that Europe could be heading for its worst security crisis in decades.
But the anxiety is not entirely centered on the prospect of a long and protracted land war with Russia over Ukraine.
It is true he said: The EU is warning the Kremlin of “extreme consequences” if it takes military action in neighboring Ukraine. Germany’s new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was in Kiev and Moscow to say just that.
But the pervasive concern in the West – Washington, NATO, the UK and the EU – has less to do with the possibility of a war on Ukraine, and much more, with Moscow seeking to divide and destabilize Europe – upsetting the balance of power. continental power in favor of the Kremlin.
The West believes the Kremlin has invested heavily in its public maneuvers over Ukraine to withdraw now, with nothing to show for it.
The Biden administration, on the other hand, is eagerly awaiting a strong EU stance on possible sanctions, depending on the course of action taken by Moscow.
EU optimists predict that the bloc will agree on a series of possible sanctions by January 24, at the next meeting of foreign ministers. But even this is by no means guaranteed.
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