From a protracted war to the overthrow of Putin / Scenarios: 5 ways the war in Ukraine could end

The first scenario, says the BBC, is that of a short war, where Putin massively bombs Ukraine, thousands of civilians die, while President Zelenski is killed or flees the country, after which Russia establishes a puppet government, thus Ukraine joins Belarus as a client state of Moscow.

The second scenario, the long war. Russian forces stall, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and incompetent leadership. This way they need more time to get cities like Kiev. And then, perhaps after many years, with a new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine.

The third scenario. European war. Putin may seek to retake more parts of the former Russian empire by sending troops to non-NATO former Soviet republics such as Moldova and Georgia. Or he could threaten to send troops to the Baltic states – which are members of NATO – such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal enclave of Kaliningrad. This would be extremely dangerous and would risk a war with NATO. According to Article 5 of the military alliance statute, an attack on one member is an attack on all.

Fourth scenario, a diplomatic solution. Diplomats say it is important for the Russian leader to know what it takes for Western sanctions to be lifted in order to reach an agreement. One possibility would be for Ukraine to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. On the other hand, Putin recognizes Ukraine’s independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. This may not seem possible, but it is not beyond the realm of credibility.

And the last scenario, Putin collapses! Thousands of Russian soldiers die in the war as economic sanctions kill Russia and Putin loses popular support. Eventually members of Russia’s military, political and economic elite turn against him, ending his rule.

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