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During 2020, Albania was the fifth country in Europe for the lowest fertility rate.
Affected by high emigration rates, the population of Albania has entered a process of rapid aging, becoming a major problem for the sustainable economic development of the country.
During 2020, according to Eurostat, Albania had only 1.32 live births per woman with a decrease of 0.2 compared to 2019, leaving behind only Malta, Spain, Italy and Macedonia.
In 2020, 4.07 million babies were born in the EU, continuing a downward trend that began in 2008 when 4.68 million children were born in the EU, while in Albania the downward trend has continued faster after 1990.
The total fertility rate was 1.50 live births per woman in the EU in 2020, a slight decrease from the last peak in 2016 (1.57), but still an increase compared to 2001 (1.43).
The highest total fertility rate since the beginning of the comparable time series was 1.57 in 2008, 2010 and 2016. In the intervening years, it fluctuates between 1.51 and 1.57.
In 2020, the EU member state with the highest total fertility rate was France (1.83 live births per woman), followed by Romania (1.80), the Czech Republic (1.71) and Denmark (1.68).
The percentage of children born to foreign mothers varies considerably between Member States. In 2020, 64% of children born in Luxembourg were born to mothers abroad, while in Cyprus the share was 39%. In Austria, Malta and Belgium, the percentage was about a third.
At the other end of the scale, nine countries had less than 10% of children born to mothers born abroad, with the lowest rates recorded in Bulgaria, Slovakia (both 2%) and Lithuania (3%).
In our country, during the period 2011 – 2020 births nationwide have decreased by 18%. Out of 34,285 babies born in 2011 in 2020 28,075 are born. Kukes region marked the largest decline in the country. Over the last decade in the Northeastern prefecture fertility has declined by 37.8 percent.
After Kukës, the largest decline in fertility during the last decade has been recorded by the Region of Berat with 34.3%. Gjirokastra ranks third for the largest decline in fertility with 32.2% and then Vlora with over 31% for the same period. In contrast, Tirana and Durrës had the lowest birth rates with -1.6 and -12.0%, respectively. These two counties, although declining in births, have positive natural population increases due to shifts from other districts towards them.
As a result of this situation, demographic developments are taking place according to pessimistic scenarios of population projections.
According to the latest revision for the period 2019-2031, in the pessimistic scenario the fertility index for a woman in 2019 was 1.36 the same as in the pessimistic scenario, but in the future the indicator may deteriorate beyond this scenario because indirect surveys show that emigration in the last decade has been higher than expected.
Eastern European countries experienced declining fertility during the 1990s and 2000s, when the Synthetic Fertilization Index (ISF) reached very low levels. The most extreme cases are those of Bulgaria (1.09 children per woman) and the Czech Republic (1.13 children per woman), for the rest of the Eastern European countries the iSF reached the minimum, around the value of 1.2 births per woman. In the hypothesis of low fertility in Albania, it is thought that iSF will reach level 1.2 in 2031, but real developments are showing that this level will be reached before this year.Monitor.al
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