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Turkey said on June 8 that a United Nations plan to establish a naval corridor for Ukrainian grain exports, to be overseen by Ankara, was a “reasonable” plan, but called for more talks with Moscow and Kiev to ensure that ships would be safe.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began in February, has halted exports of Kiev grain from the Black Sea ports, threatening a global food crisis. The United Nations wants both sides, but also neighboring country, Turkey, to agree on the creation of a corridor.
But there are major obstacles to reaching an agreement, including efforts to persuade Russia to ease the blockade of Ukrainian ports and Kiev to clear the mines it has laid. Once these barriers are overcome the transport companies need to be convinced that the corridor is safe to use. The time to overcome these obstacles is running out and there is little room in the warehouse to store Ukraine’s new cereals, which are harvested in late July.
Why are Ukrainian grain exports important?
Russia and Ukraine together make up almost a third of global grain supplies and their importance has been further highlighted by a halt to Indian exports, but also bad weather that has damaged crops in North America and Western Europe.
The war, along with Western sanctions against Russia, have pushed up the prices of cereals, cooking oil, fertilizers and energy prices.
These have become a threat to the food crisis in poor countries, some of which depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than half of their wheat imports.
Ukraine is also a major exporter of corn, barley, sunflower oil and other oils, while Russia and Belarus-Minsk support Russia in the Ukraine war and are also subject to sanctions, accounting for over 40 percent of global mineral exports. nutritional.
How much grain is stuck in Ukraine?
The grain industry is one of Ukraine’s top industries, with the country exporting $ 12.2 billion in 2021, or one-fifth of the country’s total exports.
Before the war, Ukraine exported 98 percent of its grain and oil through the Black Sea. This state had exported up to 6 million tons of cereals and oils per month.
But with most blocking ports and rail systems unable to cope with export congestion, the state is now able to export at least 2 million tonnes of grain a month, said Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s deputy minister of agrarian policy, this week. and Food. In May, exports of cereals, oilseeds and cooking oil increased by 80 percent within the month, or 1.71 million tons, but these figures were significantly lower compared to official export data for May 2021.
Washington has accused Russia of using food as a weapon in the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin argues that Washington has fueled the crisis by imposing sanctions on Moscow.
About 22 million tonnes of grain were stranded in Ukraine, according to May data, due to infrastructure challenges and blockade at seaports. As prices rise, UN agencies have to cut refugee rations by half, for example for the Sahel, due to a lack of funding.
UN plan to unblock grain exports
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Wednesday’s meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, was fruitful, but more talks are needed on the issue of unblocking exports.
Lavrov said it was up to Kiev to resolve the issue of unblocking its grain, urging Ukraine to clear its ports of landmines. If it does, then, according to him, Russia, with the help of Turkey, will provide safe passage of shipping ships.
However, Kiev said it needed “effective security guarantees” before it could start deliveries, expressing concern that Moscow could use a potential corridor to storm the port of Odessa.
Also, the director of the Association of Ukrainian Cereal Traders, Serhiy Ivashchenko, said on June 8 that Turkey – the country that has the second largest army in NATO and has a large navy – was not strong enough to act as guaranteeing the safe passage of ships.
He also said it would take at least two to three months to clear mines from Ukrainian ports, seeking the involvement of Turkish and Romanian navies as well.
Are there other obstacles?
Even if agreement is reached, the security costs for any ship that would be so bold as to sail the Black Sea would be very high.
The situation has become even more urgent due to the lack of space to store cereals in Ukraine. Up to 35 percent of the total storage capacity of Ukraine’s 61 million tons of cereals could be occupied to store the 2021 harvest even when the products produced from the July harvest arrive, said the research center, APK-Inform .
Can Ukraine export its cereals by land?
Ukraine’s railway system is connected to several neighboring European countries, such as Poland, so grain has been transported by various trains across borders, but these vehicles do not have large capacities to transport these products.
Kiev has stepped up efforts to make exports through the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta. By mid-May, only 240,000 tons of grain or 1 percent of Ukraine’s total production had been exported through this port.
The change of the grain export route to Romania was made through railways to the ports on the Danube River and then the shipments were transported to the port of Constanta. But, this process is complex and costly./REL
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