Mediation with Turkey? What does Greece expect from the German Foreign Minister?

So what does Greece expect from the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who visits Athens on Friday (29.07.2022) and directly after the visit continues her journey to Turkey? Does the Greek government want German mediation to reduce tensions with Turkey?

Doubt about German solidarity

“A German mediation to reduce tensions with Turkey would be to be welcomed,” Georgios Pagoulatos, Director of Eliamep, the most important Greek institute for political and economic affairs, told Deutsche Wellen. However, the Greek government does not want Berlin to do “equity policy” with Greece and Turkey. “Being a partner in the EU, Greece expects active help from Germany, especially considering the revisionism and the aggressive attitude of the Erdoğan regime towards a European democracy,” says Pagoulatos.

It seems that Greece has doubts about Berlin’s solidarity when it comes to the conflict with Turkey. Georgios Katrougalos, politician of the left-wing opposition party Syriza and Foreign Minister during 2019, when speaking to Deutsche Wellen criticizes the fact that the language of the German government towards Turkey is much softer than that of the Council of Europe. We recall that in March 2018, the Council of Europe, the body of EU heads of state and government, “strongly condemned the continuation of Turkey’s illegal activities in the Mediterranean and Aegean area,” and urgently asked Turkey to to stop these activities. Since Turkey did not react, the Council of Europe asked the EU Commission in June 2019 to propose “taking measures”, i.e. the imposition of sanctions against Turkey.

The visit is initially postponed

At the same time, Katrougalos does not have a good opinion about the mediation initiatives: “We think that direct communication channels should be created between Athens and Ankara and the EU should support our common positions towards Turkey,” he says. The EU must keep its promises of threatening Turkey with sanctions if our neighbor does not soften its policy of aggression.

Annalena Baerbock has long been aware of Greek concerns. Initially, she wanted to meet in Athens with her Greek colleague Nikos Dendias at the beginning of June, to then continue with the visit to Ankara. But a coronavirus infection disrupted his plans and the visit was postponed. In the weeks since then, Greek-Turkish relations have not improved. On the contrary.

“Hot” episodes in the Aegean?

Greek worries are increasing every day, because Erdogan’s rhetoric is getting tougher.

Pagoulatos, the cold-blooded head of Eliamep, does not rule out the possibility of a “hot” episode with Turkey in the middle of the summer: “The aggression from Turkey is worrying,” he says. Turkey constantly systematically raises new demands: starting from the theory of the so-called “grey zone”, of uninhabited Greek islands that in Turkey’s opinion are Turkish, to the demand for the demilitarization of the Greek Aegean islands, a condition for the recognition of their Greek sovereignty.

Added to these are the flights of Turkish warplanes over the inhabited Greek islands and the accusation that Greece helps “Kurdish terrorism”, like many other European countries. Therefore, for Pagoulatos, it is clear that Turkish President Erdogan incites tensions and anti-Western conspiracy theories in order to gain points in domestic politics.

Communication channels between Athens and Ankara are missing

Political scientist Sotiris Serbos, foreign policy adviser to Nikos Androulakis, the new leader of the social democratic party, PASOK, is also concerned about the development of a “hot” episode during the summer. The main reason for the increased concern concerns the current lack of an open and reliable communication channel between Athens and Ankara, he tells Deutsche Wellen.

Can Germany fill this gap and emerge as a mediator? Serbos is skeptical about this. In recent years, the Greek government has invested more in relations with the US and France, therefore it expects more from Washington and Paris than from Berlin, says the political scientist. Opposition politician Katrougalos is clearer in his criticism: Mitsotakis has decided to “give everything” to the Americans, he says.

Waiting for clear words

So in Athens, no spectacular mediating initiative is expected from Annalena Baerbock. Initially, some clear words from the German Foreign Minister in the direction of Ankara would be enough. But it would have been better for Athens if Baerbock announced that the Federal Republic will stop supplying Turkey with German submarines. In Greece, people remember well that in January 2021, the German Green Party, then in opposition, asked the German federal government to stop the supply of German submarines to Turkey. Meanwhile in Athens, there are no longer such hopes for the Greens who co-govern in Germany./DW