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The Bosnian Serbs will not secede, nor will there be a war for Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, the EU must finally take the reins in its policy towards the Western Balkans, writes analyst Norbert Mappes-Niediek for DW.
He talks about a “force measurement in Bosnia”, where the strongest person, “the key figure”, stands as far as he can at the end of such a race. Russian President Vladimir Putin can only benefit from the procrastination for Bosnia: He can not only drag the EU into the Balkans, but can also directly weaken it.
Unlike in the case of Ukraine because of Bosnia, he should not be afraid of punitive measures such as sanctions, but only, as in the case of Belarus, can he suffer a loss of prestige.
While the other key figure on the other side, President Joe Biden, does not have any milestones, says Mappes-Niediek.
The US is focusing on China and now, unfortunately, Ukraine as well. After the shame in Afghanistan, one can hardly believe that the US is committing its potential to other regions of the world. According to the expert, the West now has six months to gather itself and create a strong counterweight.
But the mobilization is unlikely to reach as far as Washington, whereas the EU needs to recover.
“From a legal point of view, the position of the Bosnian Serbs is unfounded,” he said.
It more results from binding constitutional norms. If the norms are violated, there should be sanctions and the instruments for that are more than enough.
They can start with the withdrawal of the European Investment Bank until the exclusion of Bosnian Serb banks from international monetary circulation.
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