Russians fleeing the Russian war

Russian interest in the concept of “emigration” has quadrupled, while searches for “travel visas” have almost doubled.

How many Russians have left is difficult to determine, but some media outlets, such as Deutesche Welle, have estimated that Russia is experiencing its largest exodus since the October Revolution of 1917.

In a survey published in late March, the Russian non-profit organization OK Russia estimated that at least 300,000 people had fled Russia since the beginning of the occupation of Ukraine. The organization has stated that the exact figures can not be known, as official data are not available.

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty’s Current Time service has managed to obtain the stories of at least two people – a journalist and an activist – who fled Russia to Lithuania.

“It was really clear to me: I’m in a place that is bombing members of my family. What do I need most? “I heard on state television that everything is fine and that Russia is not bombing anyone,” said Olesya Ostapchuk, a journalist.

“For me, the culmination was probably the law on fake news, with which you can not call war a war. Physiologically I have not been able to face this war and remain silent. “If the options are to go to jail, or to leave the country… I see no reason to go to jail,” said activist Grigory Sverdlin.

In early March, the Russian state passed a law banning it dissemination of that information about the war, which the authorities consider false. Violators can be sentenced to up to 15 years in prison.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine a “special operation” aimed at “demilitarizing” and “denationalizing the country.”

In a recent speech, Putin called the Russians who do not support him “traitors.” He has said that the West is trying to destroy Russia, relying on the “fifth pillar”. “Fifth column” usually refers to enemy sympathizers during a war.

“The West is trying to divide our society – speculating on military losses and socio-economic consequences – in order to provoke a civil confrontation in Russia. “And, using the fifth column, he is trying to achieve his goal: the destruction of Russia.”

Research by the OK Russia organization has shown that some of the reasons for Russians leaving are: opposition to the invasion of Ukraine and declining living standards.

The West has undertaken unprecedented sanctions against Russia, due to the occupation of Ukraine. Hundreds of Western companies have left the Russian market, tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs overnight, and the Russian ruble has depreciated.

Speaking of Expose program of Radio Free Europe, Nikolai Roussanov, a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania, says it has been expected that Russia will experience an exodus of people who feel they have no future inside Russia.

“I think there are two main reasons. The first is about job opportunities. For many young professionals, IT and other sectors, [puna] in Russia is shrinking. They try to move to places that offer them opportunities. “Russia is becoming increasingly isolated, the business world there is becoming increasingly difficult, and they are looking for places where they can continue to work.”

“The second reason is that for many people, fear and lack of freedom of expression are becoming unbearable. “So they are looking for places where they can breathe more freely.”

Alexander Nozik is a physicist at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. He says that his work and that of his colleagues has become very difficult, due to the cessation of cooperation with world colleagues. Speaking of the Exposition, he says it is impossible to develop isolated science.

“I have my backup plan. My family and I do not want to leave, but we need to think about the future. “Therefore, I have some plans to leave if things get worse, or at least remain the same for a long time,” says Nozik.

Nozik will not indicate where he would leave. But many Russians are moving to countries that do not require visas, such as the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Turkey is a destination as well, due to direct flights to Russia and visa-free travel.

Thousands of other international flights have been canceled as Russian airlines are not allowed to fly over many western countries.

Alexander Nozik says he does not follow the propaganda made by Russian state television for events in Ukraine, but is informed through various channels in the Telegram. Although he does not elaborate much, he is optimistic that things can change.

“I believe that the system here in Russia will collapse and get better. The only question is how many people will suffer before it collapses. “That’s why we think about relocation and have back-up plans.”

Russia and Ukraine are engaged in peace negotiations, but, apart from some reported progress, there is nothing concrete. Also, there are no indications of any expected change in the Russian regime.

Asked if the wave of migration from Russia would put pressure on the Kremlin, Nikolai Roussanov, a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania, replied:

“It’s hard to say. This is something that is noticed over time. It is something that the Russian economy and people will not feel quickly. So I do not think it is immediate pressure. “But it is definitely a long-term pressure, which will hurt the country’s competition.”

Roussanov agrees that Russia, to some extent, is facing “brain drain”, as most of the IDPs are working-age people, especially from the information technology sector. Roussanov says the Russian state will take action if it perceives the situation as worrying.

“It’s easy to imagine – we who lived in the Soviet Union – what the state could do. So far, I have seen some reports of some minor mistreatment of people at the border, but not on a massive scale. I have seen these in the media, I have no first-hand information. “But if the state sees escape as problematic, it can make it more difficult.”

In the Soviet period, traveling abroad was very difficult, due to the Iron Curtain, propaganda and general tensions. To travel abroad, people needed special permission from the government.

The Central Service of Radio Free Europe has reported that many citizens who have left Russia have faced lengthy interrogation processes at the border. Many said they had to give phones and computers to police officers, who even read their private messages.

Those who flee, according to media reports, belong to all profiles and professions. The departure of Bolshoi prima ballerina Olga Smirnova has caused a stir in the news. She has said she is against the war in Ukraine and has moved to the Netherlands, where she has joined the country’s national theater.

“In a modern and bright world, I expect civilized societies to resolve political issues only through peaceful negotiations. “I never thought I would be ashamed of Russia. I have always been proud of the talented Russian people, of our cultural and athletic achievements,” Smirnova said before leaving.

According to the Levada Center – the only independent polling institute in Russia – pro-European Russians, who condemn the war in Ukraine, make up at least 20% of the total Russian population. In other words, that means about 30 million people.REL

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