Anti-Western bloc? China, Russia and the new world order

In these times of great upheaval, some news seem to go unnoticed, which in itself has the potential to warn of major upheavals. When the Bundestag last week by a clear majority voted to send heavy weapons to Ukraine, a passage at the end of the document was also very significant. China is urged to resolutely renounce war approval as well as support a ceasefire. Added to this was a clear threat: If Beijing were to undermine Western sanctions or even send weapons to Ukraine, it would result in sanctions against China.

Farewell to Merkel’s naivete

Such warnings a few weeks ago were unthinkable, as was sending tanks to Ukraine. This turn of German politics marks in the first place an irreversible farewell to Merkel’s China policy, or rather naivety about China, which focused on the lucrative businesses of the economy but did not want to see aggressive efforts. of Beijing as a superpower.

Creating a block

Europe, many times divided by the start of the war in Ukraine, has become more united with the United States. Where China stands in this constellation has long been known. Close to Russia. Russia’s rapprochement with China in one bloc is no small feat. It shows a shift in world order, an epoch-making turn, as we have seen with the fall of the Berlin Wall. The question that arises is how stable is the Sino-Russian bloc actually. At the start of the Olympics, Putin and Xi Jinping announced that the Sino-Russian partnership “knows no bounds.”

Russia and China unite in what as expansionist powers want to divide the world into zones of influence. Russia is waging a brutal war in Ukraine over this. China, for its part, is increasingly threatening Taiwan’s territorial integrity. The common opponent is the US in this expansion of power. In addition to strategic unity, Beijing and Moscow are united by the rejection of Western-liberal values, the fear of democracy within the country, the persecution of dissidents, and the creation of a cult of personality.

EC president proposes new sanctions against Moscow

Yet the Russia-China bloc is not as strong as it seems at first glance. China does indeed reject sanctions against Russia, but it is far from helping Russia in the economic consequences it will have. In the first place this is not in China’s interest. China has an interest in the European market. The economic volume of the EU in 2020, according to the World Bank, is ten times larger than that of Russia. Russia can not replace the European market, on which China is dependent. Next, President Jinping’s “zero covid” policy is plunging cities like Shanghai into serious crisis. Gone are the days when Beijing lent fat to countries along the Silk Road. In this block it is clear who is up and who is down. Since before the war, Chinese officials have been looking down on Russia.

German firms dependent on China

Sanctions weaken Russia and China could benefit. Because it can buy Russian oil and gas cheaply and expand its influence in Central Asia at the expense of Russia. “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle,” once wrote the Chinese military philosopher Sunzi. This seems to be also Jinping’s strategy. Stay away, wait, until a weakened Russia submits to Beijing itself.

Perhaps that is why in all the rounds for Russia in Berlin, China is in the background as a problem. Dependence on Russian energy can be solved, but dependence on Chinese market, supply chains, high-tech etc., this is hard to expect. In the end, China will be the biggest problem, as shown by this epochal turn./DW

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