Why does Scholzi not visit Sarajevo?

Turkish President Erdogan is undoubtedly happy with his visit to Bosnia and Herzegovina. From 2010 until today, he has visited this country seven times – as prime minister or as president. And they gladly welcome him there, as the television recordings show. “Bosnia-Herzegovina has a special place in the hearts of our people,” the Turkish president said during the visit.

Despite these sympathies, no one in Bosnia-Herzegovina dreams of mass movements to Turkey, Erdogan’s country. They much more often prefer their future to another country – Germany.

The country’s longtime chancellor, Angela Merkel, paid a farewell visit to the Western Balkans just two weeks after Erdogan’s walk through Bashçarshi. But she bypassed Sarajevo and went to Belgrade.

It is true that Merkel was the initiator and one of the strongest supporters of the Berlin Process. It is also true that she sent her former minister Christian Schmidt to the post of High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but it is also true that during her 16 years as chancellor, she paid only one official visit to Sarajevo. .

The crucial moment for the Balkans

Kurti in Berlin, May 4, 2022

Schmidt’s appointment as High Representative was a sign of Germany’s increased commitment to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Consequently the expectations are high, as are the expectations. And these hopes were increased after the arrival of the new government in Berlin, at the end of last year. But apparently, the German government’s engagement would have been much slower and more declarative had it not been for February 24 and the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Russian troops in Ukraine reminded Berlin and other EU capitals of the danger of another bloody war that – ironically – began 30 years ago and never ended. But that turned into a dangerous frozen conflict.

Suddenly Berlin and the EU were reminded that, although Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Western Balkans are not really important to them, these countries are still so important that they can not be left under full Russian influence. And the engagement began: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited the Western Balkans two weeks after the start of the Russian occupation. The first station was the most complex – Sarajevo. This was followed by a visit by the Minister of Defense, Christine Lambrecht, first to Sarajevo and then to other countries.

Somehow, in parallel, the ruling coalition sent a resolution to Bosnia and Herzegovina to the parliamentary procedure in the Bundestag, which provoked numerous reactions in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries. It also caused controversy in Croatia, where two members of the Bundestag with Balkan origins and names were presented to the media as a symbol of mutually contradictory concepts with the structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina. SPD MP Adis Ahmetovic, among others, defended the idea that Milorad Dodik and Dragan Covic are the main culprits for hindering the country on the path to progress. His colleague Josip Juratovic said that in the resolution, along with Dodik and Covic, Bakir Izetbegovic should also be mentioned as guilty.

But the resolution was sent to the procedure without the changes requested by Juratovic. Diplomatic sources in Berlin say that the resolution will be adopted and will be an extremely important document for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Why does Scholzi not visit Sarajevo?

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision not to visit BiH during his stay in the Western Balkans does not fit in with Berlin’s increased commitment – at least on a symbolic level. If Scholz thinks that visits should be avoided before the general elections in this country, then this is a mistake. Because Bosnia and Herzegovina will be a minefield for the chancellor even after the October elections.

So seven years after the chancellor’s stay in Sarajevo, it would have been good for a German chancellor to visit the country again and send a very clear message in favor of a commitment to solving real problems in this country. If not because of Bosnia and Herzegovina, then because of the situation at home. The plan of the visit should be this: first Zagreb and Belgrade, and then Sarajevo.

Otherwise, no one in Berlin will have the right to comment when Erdogan’s greetings in Bashçarshi or the Russian flags in Banjaluka, which at the moment is much more dangerous. Chancellor Scholz will then be forced to hear the words: Führung, Herr Scholz (You must lead, Mr. Scholz)! Just do not overdo it./DW