Why are Russia-Lithuania tensions rising?

Moscow has warned it will respond to sanctions imposed as a result of its attack on Ukraine in a way that will have a “significant negative impact” on the Lithuanian people, raising fears of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. .

But what are the reasons for the rising tensions for Kaliningrad, a Russian territory in the Baltic Sea but separated from the rest of the country?

MOST WESTERN TERRITORY OF RUSSIA

The Kaliningrad region was once part of the German province of East Prussia, which was taken over by the Soviet Union after World War II, in accordance with the 1945 Potsdam agreement between the allied powers. The capital of South Prussia, Konigsberg, was renamed Kaliningrad after Bolshevik leader Mikhail Kalinin.

An estimated 2 million Germans fled the territory in the final months of World War II, and those who remained were forcibly expelled after the armed conflict ended.

Soviet authorities turned Kaliningrad into a major port as well as a fishing center, encouraging people from other regions to relocate there. Since the Cold War period, Kaliningrad has also served as a major base for the Russian fleet in the Baltic Sea.

But since the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of the Baltic states, Kaliningrad has been isolated from the rest of Russia, and surrounded by Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, all of which are now members of NATO. To its south is Poland, also a NATO member country.

A MILITARY BASION

As Russia’s relations with the West have deteriorated, Kaliningrad’s military role has grown. His whereabouts have placed him at the forefront of Moscow’s efforts to counter what it calls NATO hostile policies.

The Kremlin has systematically increased its military presence there, equipping it with modern weapons, including Iskander high-precision self-propelled missiles, as well as a host of air defense systems.

As the military importance of the region has increased, its dependence on goods coming from Poland and Lithuania has made it particularly exposed.

TRANSIT STOPPED

Lithuania stressed that the ban on the movement of goods covered by sanctions was part of the fourth package of EU sanctions against Russia, noting that the ban applies only to steel and ferrous metals, starting June 17.

The government in Vilnius dismissed the description of the measures by Russia as a blockade, stressing that goods not covered by the sanctions, as well as passengers on railway lines, could continue to travel through Lithuania.

In line with the EU decision, coal will be banned in August and shipments of oil and oil products will be stopped in December.

MOSCOW REVIEWS AN ANSWER

Moscow formally protested the ban on shipments to Kaliningrad, in violation of Russia-EU agreements on free transit of goods in the region.

Kaliningrad Governor Anton Alikhanov said the ban would affect up to half of all items brought to the region, including cement and other building materials.

Nikolai Patrushev, the powerful secretary of Russia’s Security Council and a close confidant of President Vladimir Putin, visited Kaliningrad on Tuesday to meet with local officials. He described the restrictions as “hostile” and warned that Moscow would respond with “indefinite measures” that “would have a significant negative impact on Lithuania’s population”.

Mr Patrushev did not provide details, but Governor Alikhanov suggested that the Russian response could include halting the flow of goods through the ports of Lithuania and other Baltic states.

However, Lithuania has significantly reduced its economic and energy dependence on Russia, recently becoming the first EU country to ban the use of Russian gas. It no longer imports Russian oil and has suspended imports of Russian electricity. Transportation of most Russian transit goods through Lithuanian ports has already been stopped by EU sanctions, but Moscow may decide to restrict transit for cargo from third countries through Lithuania.

President Putin will decide on Russia’s response after receiving Mr. Patrushev’s report.

Russia’s stalemate with Lithuania is part of their difficult relationship dating back to Moscow’s annexation of the country, along with Estonia and Latvia, in 1940. All three countries supported the independence movement under the former Soviet leader. Mikhail Gorbachev and regained it when the USSR disintegrated in 1991.

FEAR OF ESCAPING

Some in the West have long feared that Russia could aim to take military action to secure a land corridor between its ally Belarus and the Kaliningrad region through the so-called Suwalki Strait, a 65-kilometer strip of land in Poland along the border. with Lithuania.

Rhetoric on Russian state television has grown to a high level, with commentator Vladimir Solovyov accusing the West of dangerousness that has set the clock for World War III.

Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas warned on Wednesday of the risk of Russian provocations amid tensions over Kaliningrad. “When you have a military force and they are led by shortcomings – I apologize for the expression – you can certainly expect everything,” he said, adding that Lithuania feels safe and relies on its NATO allies.

With most of the Russian military trapped in Ukraine, any use of force in the Baltic could be beyond Moscow’s conventional weapons capabilities.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said she did not think there was a military threat to Lithuania, adding that Russia was trying to put pressure on the EU to ease sanctions.

“Russia is playing very well with our fears, so that we can withdraw from our decisions,” Ms Kallas told the Associated Press.

A Russian attempt to use force against Poland or Lithuania would provoke a direct conflict with NATO, which is obliged to protect any of its members under its charter of mutual protection clause, known as Article 5. .

On Tuesday, US State Department spokesman Ned Price stressed Washington’s “iron” commitment to the clause, which he described as a “fundamental” principle of NATO.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov responded by warning the EU and NATO against “dangerous rhetorical games” for Kaliningrad. “Some powerful and influential forces in the West are doing everything they can to further exacerbate tensions in relations with Russia,” he said, adding that “some simply have no limit in inventing scenarios in which a military confrontation with us, it would be something inevitable “./ VOA

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