A signal of hope? Talks on Ukraine continue despite Russian warning

But instead of sending armor inside Ukrainian territory amid growing concerns from the West, Moscow ‘bombarded’ Western capitals with diplomatic letters citing an international deal that the Kremlin sees as a strong argument for its confrontation stance.

Despite President Vladimir Putin saying a month ago that he wanted a swift response to Russian demands and warning that Moksa would not accept “empty talks”, earlier this week he showed a visible readiness for more talks with Washington and NATO. -n.

This kind of attitude is offering some hope. Although over 100,000 Russian troops have been stationed on the border with Ukraine and several weeks of talks have not borne fruit, at least Russia and the West continue to communicate. The fact that the talks continue, some experts see with optimism, but say that care should be taken.

Former US diplomat Jeff Rathke, president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University, says that despite Mr. Putin’s rhetoric, he has left open the possibility of discussing in detail at least some issues where the West has been willing. to engage.

“We are more or less where we were a few weeks ago. Putin has left open the way for his alternatives. He did not rule out talks but also did not soften his harsh rhetoric. “

There is a deep rift between Russia and the West when it comes to critical issues and it remains unclear whether a compromise can be reached.

But the Kremlin’s emphasis on diplomacy seems to reflect President Putin’s aspirations to achieve his goals through negotiations using troop deployments to exert pressure.

Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and closely follows the Kremlin’s policies, says there is some hope.

“Russia will continue to take a tough stance, implying that the door to talks is not being closed. Such complex agreements are not easily reached. That is why all methods of persuasion are being used, including the demonstration of force. “

The West immediately rejected the demands during a series of talks last month. But Moscow demanded a written response, raising suspicions that it wanted an official rejection of its demands to be used as an argument for sending troops to Ukraine.

Washington and Brussels submitted their response to Moscow on January 26, excluding any basic Russian request, but keeping open the possibility of talks on other issues. Among them are restrictions on the deployment of attack missiles, greater transparency on military maneuvers, and other confidence-building measures.

So far, President Putin has not given his response to the West’s proposals, but Russian diplomats have warned that it will be difficult to make any progress on these issues if the West continues to oppose Moscow’s key demands.

The blockade has sparked fears of imminent clashes, and in a phone call last week, President Joe Biden warned Ukraine’s president that there was a “clear possibility” that Russia would invade the country in February.

It seems that for the time being Moscow has chosen a diplomatic route and in recent days US officials have softened their rhetoric about the times when Russia can intervene. But Washington has not backed down from the urgency of its concerns.

One week ago, Russian top diplomat Sergei Lavrov sent new letters to his Western counterparts, refuting NATO’s argument that every country has the right to choose alliances. He said the expansion of the alliance runs counter to its obligations not to strengthen security at the expense of Russia.

Mr Lavrov said the United States and its allies had pledged to abide by security provisions based on documents signed at the summits of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the main transatlantic branch of security.

“There must be security for everyone or there will be no security for anyone,” Lavrov wrote in his letter, noting that his ministry would wait for official answers before advising President Putin on future moves.

The exchange of letters could lead to a stage for a long series of enigmatic arguments over contradictory interpretations of OSCE documents as President Putin has expressed readiness for such discussions.

In his first public comments since deepening tensions over Ukraine, the Russian leader noted on Tuesday that while the West rejects Russia’s key demands, diplomatic efforts must continue. “I hope that eventually we will find a solution, although we understand that it will not be easy“, Said President Putin.

Mr. Putin’s calm tone contrasts with his December statement calling for a swift Western response and that he could order unspecified “military-technical measures” if the United States and its allies continue to ignore Moscow’s concerns.

In comments this week, President Putin did not mention any such measures, saying: “We must find a way to guarantee the interests and security of all parties, including Ukraine, European countries and Russia.”

In addition to talks with the United States and NATO, Russia also engaged in separate negotiations for a stalled 2015 peace deal for eastern Ukraine. A quadripartite meeting in Paris between presidential envoys from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany did not bring immediate progress, but they will meet again in Berlin this month.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has spoken to President Putin three times since last Friday, will visit Moscow and Kiev on Monday and Tuesday in a bid to help ease tensions. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also travel to Ukraine and Russia on February 14 and 15

Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads the Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, says Russia is likely to continue to show its military muscles to demonstrate determination. He noted that Russia can easily afford to keep troops near Ukraine for a long time and will continue a series of exercises to keep up the pressure on the West.

“Troops can move without problems and at no cost, within the funds set aside for military maneuvers.”

Belarus’s authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has come closer to Moscow after being hit by Western sanctions following the crackdown on political opponents, has offered the Kremlin to make Belarus a safe haven for Russian nuclear weapons.

“Belarus will be an important element in the game.” said Mr. Lukyanov./ VOA