Critical choices for France and the European Union

According to polls in France, Emmanuel Macroni goes to the runoff on Sunday (April 24) in front of Marine Le Pen with a comfortable advantage: of 13 percent. Macroni leads with 56% of the vote. But in recent years we have had some unexpected voting results, such as in the US and the UK. There are still many undecided voters in France. The first round of voting in France ended with only a four percent difference between Macron (27.6%) and Le Pen (23.4%).

These circumstances and the weight of France in the EU pushed three left-wing prime ministers of Europe to an unusual step: with a statement published in several European newspapers Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain and António Costa, Prime Minister of Portugal made public calls to vote for Macron.

In their call, the three prime ministers wrote that Sunday’s vote was “critical for France and sec for each of us in Europe.” They call Sunday’s vote “a choice between a Democratic candidate who believes France’s strength is growing in a strong and autonomous European Union and a far-right candidate who openly sided with those who attack our freedom and democracy.” ”. Scholz, Sanchez and Costa further write that “populists and the far right view Putin as an ideological and political model, echoing his chauvinist ideas.”

Le Pen’s Europe and its aftermath

If Marine Le Pen wins Sunday’s election, she is expected to pursue a policy of isolating France in the EU. Le Pen calls for French law to take precedence over EU law, in all circumstances. She is skeptical of strangers. According to her, only those who are French citizens should have indisputable priorities: e.g. in job applications, in social benefits. But this attitude runs counter to one of the EU’s basic principles: the free movement of citizens in the EU. This attitude also contradicts the functioning of the internal market.

Le Pen is for the “Europe of the Homelands”. France, for money! Supporters of this model view international agreements with distrust, in a way, as conspiracy theories against the homeland. We recall in this context Donald Trump’s attitude towards international agreements. “Homeland Europe” is a Europe in which, any country that has the will to participate, can participate. So participation in a united Europe becomes not a matter of values ​​and institutions, but of agreements between those in power. This is a different Europe from what we built after World War II and this must be prevented, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn recently told German media.

Although the word “homeland” sounds like protection for the citizen in today’s troubled world, this concept does not correspond to the development trend of Europe in recent decades. Today’s Europe is intertwined, and the efforts for borders and isolation of a state inevitably lead to conflicts.

With Marine Le Pen, German-French cooperation would collapse. In the only televised debate with Macron on Wednesday (April 20), Le Pen stated that Germany manages to implement step by step its will in the EU, while France, according to her, does not. The support that Donald Trump gave to Boris Johnson for Brexit comes to mind: according to him, Brexit would save Great Britain from German hegemony in Europe.

Macron’s Europe and perspective

Emmanuel Macroni is also a French patriot. But he thinks international co-operation better ensures peace and prosperity in France. With this attitude he ranks next to all those who support international cooperation in the world. Macroni is a defender of the European Union and wants to develop the European Union according to the French imagination.

In a televised debate Wednesday (April 20th) with Le Pen, Macroni recalled France’s benefits from EU membership. He recalled, for example, the fact that France had not produced the vaccine against Covid itself and had received it from EU solidarity. He recalled that the economic consequences of the pandemic in France were mitigated by the EU’s billion-dollar reconstruction fund. Macroni is convinced that Europe is the best answer to the challenges of digitalisation and climate too.

He is for the continuation of cooperation with Germany. “I believe in Europe, I believe in the German-French couple,” Macroni said. In the debate he said that the partnership he had established with Chancellor Angela Merkel “continues now with Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz”. Sunday’s vote, Emmanuel Macroni called the referendum on Europe and the link between France and Germany.

EU after the presidency of Emmanuel Macron

With his energy and enthusiasm, Emmanuel Macroni sparked debates in Europe. At the same time he was noted for his steadfast insistence on cooperating with Germany. This brought benefits to France, Spain, Italy, most recently with German support for joint debts for the EU’s Covid Reconstruction Fund.

But on the other hand, many observers in Brussels and Germany think that Macroni is presented as a visionary of Europe, while behind the scenes he follows unwaveringly the interests of himself and France. We recall the restraint he has placed on EU enlargement and rapprochement with Western Balkan countries. In Europe they think he does this mainly out of fear of opposition in France.

Macroni strongly demands European sovereignty. But the question arises whether he understands with this in the first place a position of benefit for French industry. In the dispute over joint European fighter jets with Germany, France blocked Germany’s access to technology. Macroni’s earlier attacks on NATO, which he called a “cerebral death,” are thought to have targeted France’s military leadership in Europe.

France after Macron’s (first) presidency

Macron’s economic and managerial balance as president would justify a second French term for him: the second-wave Covid pandemic he managed well; he supported businesses and families with subsidies. The French economy is in relatively good condition, by December 2021 we had a growth of 6.7 percent; unemployment is at its lowest level in 13 years: in February unemployment was 7.4 percent. But the rising cost of living and inflation is a major problem for the French as well.

Contrary to these facts, French society offers five years after President Macron a troubled picture: disappointment and revolt are widespread in society. In the first round of the presidential election, more than half of the French electorate voted for the extremists: for the far right as Le Pen and Éric Zemmourin and the far left as Jean-Luc Mélenchonin. Over 32 percent of French people even want an extreme right-wing president if you collect the votes of Le Pen, Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan. Even now, before the second round, over 43 percent of French people are ready to vote for the ultra-right and xenophobic Le Pen.

The difference here is obvious with the stability that Germany offered with the September 2021 parliamentary elections: voters in Germany punished the political extremes.

Le Penny has become mainstream in France, she is no longer a gogol for the French. If the extremists receive the same strong support in the mid-June parliamentary elections in France, a second Macron presidency will face new problems.

The moderates, the left and the moderate right, the center-left Socialist Party and the Republicans, have been reduced to parties of only local importance. In France we have a strong shift to the right of the electorate.

Macroni himself started as president of the center and ended up as president of the center-right. He appropriated the demands of the Conservatives by abolishing the tax on the richest, supported the tightening of the asylum law in France, withdrew from pension reform only from mass popular protests, and Covid.

If we recall that France is the EU’s second largest economy and the EU’s only nuclear power, all of these circumstances are not inspiring.

Emmanuel Macroni no longer has the magic of his first term. However, it currently remains the only hope for France and in this context for the EU. So his success on Sunday is highly desired in Europe./DW

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