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At stake is more than just Italy’s stability. Saying goodbye to “Super Mario” would only benefit Putin. While it would endanger the EU, the euro and the policy towards Ukraine, thinks Barbara Wesel.
Italy is once again facing a government crisis. You could consider this as a summer theater, but this time much more is at stake. When the head of the weakened “Five Stars” party effectively pushes Prime Minister Mario Draghi to resign, we are dealing with more than just the stability of the country.
A serious crisis in Italy threatens the European Union, which is meanwhile under pressure from the war in Ukraine, energy shortages and inflation. Europe cannot afford instability in Rome with the known consequences for the euro and the end of a common policy towards Ukraine.
Last minute rescue?
We may love Italian operas with all their pathos and drama, but we don’t need them. The same goes for the endless aftermath of Italy’s government crises – which preferentially occur during the summer holidays. It is not known what will be the end of the current political theater in Rome.
There is, however, a chance for salvation at the last minute. But in principle, Prime Minister Mario Draghi will continue his government of national unity only if all coalition partners are on board. And precisely for this reason it will be dangerous for all of us.
The former head of the European Central Bank, also called “super Mario”, is considered in Europe as the savior of Italian stability, he led the country during the Corona crisis and presented a reform plan for the Italian economy, which will bring the coffers of the state over 100 billion euros from the EU fund for reconstruction. Hopes were hanging in Brussels that Draghi will remain in office until the next elections next spring, when the EU has faced the worst.
But Europe has made these calculations without considering Guiseppe Conte. The cause of the crisis, the former prime minister and the chairman of the “Five Stars” party, which meanwhile has shrunk by 11 percent to almost a third of the strength it once had. The head of the party, Conte hopes that with the populist demands to Draghi for a significantly stronger anti-inflation program, he will gain some more percentage of voters. While the majority of Italians have distanced themselves from the party’s populism. Even some of the “Five Star” MPs have recently distanced themselves in frustration – but the rest are enough to endanger the government of national unity.
A gift for Putin
The fall of Mario Draghi would be a gift to Vladimir Putin. The “Five Stars” have been considered friends of Russia since the beginning, just like their right-wing populist colleagues from Lega. For weeks they have been demanding an end to arms supplies to Ukraine, some kind of peace imposed at Kiev’s expense, and the restoration of “normal relations” with Moscow. It was Prime Minister Draghi who committed himself in Brussels to a joint position on the side of the USA for the support of Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia.
If there will be new elections in Italy now, according to the polls so far, it could threaten a coalition with the right-wing populists. Such an alliance would mean the end of EU policy towards Ukraine. Europe can afford political deviants in little Hungary. But a change of policy in Rome would be a flashpoint that could fan populist flames in other member states, which could spell the end of the community spirit and call into question Ukraine’s future.
New chapter of the euro crisis
In addition, a new chapter of the euro crisis is at risk. After the threat of resignation of Draghi, the costs for Italian bonds immediately increased. State debts meanwhile are 150 percent of economic yield, and investors and politicians alike fear a return to the years of the long crisis, when state bankruptcy was prevented only by the continued purchase of Italian government bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Mario Draghi himself, as head of the ECB, when asked what should be done to save the euro years ago, gave the answer: “Whatever is necessary”. But this time France and Germany may find it more difficult to intervene as anchors of stability, because they themselves are in difficult economic conditions. Now there is no more unrestricted support for Italy than there was then. The electoral tactic games of some egomaniacs in Rome this time may lead the EU to a precipice. The person who is interested in such a thing is in the Kremlin. The political class in Italy must do everything possible to prevent such a scenario./DW
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