Elections in France, decisive for EU policy towards the Balkans

In the second round of elections, the French will choose between the current president, Emmanuel Macron, and the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen.

In the event of Macron’s victory, there is more or less expected a continuation of France’s policy in the EU, including on the process of enlarging the bloc. But in the event of a Le Pen victory, the whole European project could be put at risk.

Le Pen has for years held anti-EU stances, so until the second round of elections, which is held on April 24, a great nervousness is reigning in Brussels.

“If Le Pen wins, not only EU enlargement but also internal EU processes will be in jeopardy,” said a European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the bloc’s institutions have a tradition. that do not interfere in the electoral processes of the member states.
Le Pen is well known in the EU institutions because she also has experience as a Member of the European Parliament. The EU has always had a special place in its election campaigns, but not for good. She has always criticized the policy of open borders between EU countries, the common currency and the friendly attitude of the European bloc towards migrants. However, she has now given up on the idea of ​​France leaving the bloc and is talking more about “restoring the sovereignty of member states”.

As for the Western Balkans, an eventual Le Pen victory could have consequences. She and members of her party, the Rassemblement National, who are members of the European Parliament, have been extremely friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and have developed contacts in the Western Balkans region with close people. with Russia.

Le Pen’s party has opposed Kosovo’s independence and backed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serb leader Milorad Dodik in his attempts to jeopardize Bosnia’s territorial integrity and integrity. The deputies of this party had also participated in the manifestation of the day that the entity of Republika Srpska had declared as a holiday, which the international community has described as “illegal holiday”.

Le Pen and her party have also received financial aid from Russian banks. Deputies from this party in the European Parliament had observed the Russian elections, which were held in the occupied territories of Ukraine, even though the EU had declared those elections illegal.
Now, Le Pen has criticized the Russian occupation of Ukraine, but has reiterated that if elected president of France he will commit to closer ties with Russia.

Precisely, Russia’s influence in the Balkans has been identified by the EU and NATO as a threat to the long-term stability of this region and to the achievement of the goals of the European bloc in this region.

But under Macron, France has had a restrained stance on the EU enlargement process. Paris has insisted that the EU change its enlargement methodology, and this has further slowed down the process. France is also considered to be the main obstacle to visa liberalization for Kosovo.

Although it had promised to work hard to advance enlargement during its EU presidency, France has not done so much in the first three months of its EU presidency, and this has been attributed to the French presidential election.

But diplomats in Brussels are convinced that if Emmanuel Macron wins and if pro-European forces win the parliamentary elections in June, France will be more positive about the enlargement process and will continue its commitment to peace. and stability in the Western Balkans.

France, which took over the six-month presidency of the EU earlier this year, plans to hold a special conference on the Western Balkans. The conference is expected to discuss specific problems, especially relations between Kosovo and Serbia and political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This conference is scheduled to be held in June, after the elections in France.

France has also announced greater cooperation with Germany, in order to advance the EU-mediated dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, a process which so far has not yielded concrete results.

Diplomats in Brussels expect France to “move” after the elections, also regarding the issue of visa liberalization for Kosovo. These diplomats claim that the Government of Kosovo is working with the authorities and France through bilateral contacts to remove the suspicions of Paris about the danger that may exist if liberalization occurs.

France is also expected to commit to launching membership negotiations with Albania and northern Macedonia before ending its EU presidency, before the end of June.

But diplomats in Brussels say all of these developments will be taken into account if Macron wins the presidential election. In the event of Le Pen’s victory, they say, the EU will move in an unknown direction as will its enlargement process.

“France continues to be one of the main countries of the European Union and any dramatic change in the policy of this country will have a major impact on EU processes. “If the president in France becomes a person who does not believe in the European project, such as Le Pen, then this will not help in the enlargement process either,” an EU diplomat told Radio Free Europe.

He adds that the enlargement process is just one of the topics on which the EU could have problems if Le Pen wins, because according to him, other EU topics could be endangered./REL

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