[ad_1]
European intelligence services have made an analysis that estimates that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is trying to take steps to delay secession from Russia, but also to secure concessions from the West.
The document, classified as “secret”, was prepared by several agencies for the needs of the European External Action Service (EEAS), headed by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.
RFE / RL’s Balkan Service has had access to the document, which analyzes the next steps Vucic will take in his balancing policy.
According to European intelligence, the Russian occupation of Ukraine has created problems for Vuçi. In terms of balance of power, reducing Serbia’s room for maneuver in the field of foreign and security policy.
What can Vucic do?
“In order to alleviate the great pressure of the West regarding the sanctions, President Vuçiç plans to make various moves, international and local, to prevent negative implications for Serbia, but mainly to maintain his political power,” the document reads.
According to him, it is very likely that Vucic will delay the formation of the new Government of Serbia as long as possible, using it as a pretext for not imposing sanctions against Russia.
Elections in Serbia were held on April 3, while Serbia is the only country in Europe that has not taken any sanctions against Russia, due to the occupation of Ukraine.
Official Belgrade is justified in taking such a stance to “protect the vital interests of the country”.
In the April elections, Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party won 120 seats in the Serbian Parliament, out of a total of 250. At least 126 seats are needed to form the Government.
According to the EU document, Vucic is likely to implement a “policy of small steps” to bring Serbia closer to the West.
The aim is to postpone the final secession from Russia and to use the forthcoming change in the direction of foreign policy to secure as many political and economic concessions as possible for Serbia.
The role of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the event of secession from Russia
The EU document estimates that the Serbian Orthodox Church would play a key role if Serbia decides to return to the West.
It is said that Patriarch Profirije – close to the Serbian president – would play an important role in the acceptance of Serbia’s pro-Western policy by the population.
“Generous state donations to the Serbian Orthodox Church will help Profirija convince the clergy in this regard,” the document said.
It is added that the Church’s choice not to take part in the war in Ukraine has eased the situation for Vuçi., Creating a certain space for him to distance himself from Russia.
Vuçiç benefits from the right
European intelligence services estimate that Vucic, in the coming period, will try to use the pro-Russian right-wing opposition in Parliament as an excuse for disapproving or postponing difficult foreign policy decisions.
“Vucic is pleased with the presence of such an opposition, because it enables him to present himself to the West as a moderate politician,” the document reads.
Serbia, an ally of Russia on the one hand, is also a candidate country for EU membership, on the other.
The international community has repeatedly called on it to pursue a sanctions regime against Russia. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says there can be no European future for countries with contacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin / rel
top channel
[ad_2]
Source link
