Experts: It is almost impossible to reach a Kosovo-Serbia agreement in 2022

Experts on Western Balkan developments say that given the different positions of the two sides, it is almost impossible to reach a final agreement. Experts say the crisis in Ukraine could also affect developments in the Western Balkans.

The opposing positions of Pristina and Belgrade regarding the association of Serb-majority municipalities continue to widen the gap in talks on the normalization of relations between the two countries, which have made little progress in recent years.

Pierre Mirel, an expert from Brussels, part of the EU mediation team during 2011-2013, says for VOA that this situation puts the Kosovo government in front of two possibilities.

“My first remark is that in most of the meetings, the parties were not prepared, especially that of Kosovo. You go to Brussels, accept something, which in this case is the establishment of this association, then say we can not implement it because it is not constitutional. You need to know this in advance. However, what needs to be done now. There are two solutions. “Either change the constitution or renegotiate an acceptable form of association for both parties.” says Mr. Mirel.

Analysts think it is almost impossible to reach a final Kosovo-Serbia agreement by 2022.

“The number one reason is the lack of trust on both sides. Number two, removing dialogue from the priorities of the Kosovo government. Third and perhaps most important, is the lack of a European perspective. We hear everyone say that the parties should speak for their own good, not for the sake of others. But, there are many compromises and difficult decisions that need to be made. “The concrete benefits for these countries would help their leaders secure the right support for the difficult decisions you have to make.” says VOA’s Maja Piskevic of the Atlantic Council.

Finally, the United States and its allies are focused on tensions in Ukraine over fears of possible Russian aggression.

Dalibor Rohach, an expert at the American Institute of Enterprise, says a lack of American and European engagement could change the course of developments in the Western Balkans.

“If you are left in a gray area between the west and the revisionist autocratic powers of the east, you will have an unstable environment where it is very difficult to build liberal democracy, economic development and an advanced society of political pluralism. The Western Balkans are not close to the outbreak of a conflict by a major power. “But this role can be played by Serbia, disrupting political developments in the surrounding countries, as Russia did in the region.” says Dalibor Rohaç from the American Enterprise Institute.

According to expert Mirel, as uncertain as the future of Kosovo-Serbia relations, remains Russia’s position in case these two countries reach an agreement.

“If in two or three years what the US calls a legally binding agreement is reached, which does not necessarily mean recognition of Kosovo by Serbia, but which would allow Kosovo to become part of the United Nations, which would be Russia’s position? A few years ago, Russia had said it would respect any decision by Serbia. I would not be surprised if Russia raises a question about Crimea when that happens. And it would seek compensation, for Crimea to be recognized as part of Russia, in exchange for accepting Kosovo’s membership in the UN. “This is a big question mark.”Mr. Mirel.

Major positive changes in the dialogue are not expected even after the Serbian presidential and parliamentary elections that will be held in the spring of this year, says expert Piskevic.

“It will be easier after the elections, because both leaders will have clear mandates in front of them. In this respect, yes, we can expect positive moves. But unfortunately I do not think this will have a big impact on the process. “A push from the EU is necessary, as a carrot is said to be at the end of the road.”ë she.

Analysts believe that the European Union should use new means to entice the parties to reach an agreement.

“Instead of the current approach, which could lead to the integration of the Western Balkans in maybe 20 years, we need a step-by-step approach of including all countries, not just Kosovo and Serbia, in the European internal market. Because the Western Balkans is eager for investment. In other words, do not let these countries wait until they join to benefit the billions, but this should be done now, in a step-by-step process, while the countries carry out the necessary reforms “, says Mr. Mirel.

Kosovo and Serbia agreed to normalize economic relations in 2020, through an agreement signed in the White House in the presence of former President Donald Trump.

But looking at the situation in the world, expert Rohach thinks that similar meetings can hardly be repeated.

“What happened in 2020, I would say was almost like a history accident, për the fact that Richard Grennell thought it was important for the White House to engage in a form different from previous administrations. President Trump saw this as ae good opportunities for photos and to gain easy international points. “But I do not think we will have this luck one more time,” he saidfor the Voice of America Mr. Rohaç.

March marks the 11th anniversary of the start of the Pristina-Belgrade talks in Brussels mediated by the European Union. Over the years, a number of agreements have been reached on many issues, but their implementation in practice remains a difficult challenge./VOA

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