Montenegro / Is minority government the solution to the crisis?

Montenegro will most likely have a new minority government in February, headed by former Deputy Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic. His “Black on White” coalition, which consists of the URA and the CIVIS Citizens’ League, has demanded that parliament vote no confidence in Zdravko Krivokapic’s current cabinet.

The government is expected to fall, because the initiative has been supported by the entire opposition, so there will be enough votes for it to be approved. The URA would then form a minority government, which would not include the two strongest groups in parliament – the ruling Democratic Front (DF) and President Milo Djukanovic’s opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), but they have asked as well as from other parties, to support the minority cabinet. It is believed that DPS will provide the necessary support.

The decision to overthrow the government, of which they are a part, is justified by the fact that Montenegro has been in a political crisis for a long time, that European integration and the election of key justice officials have been blocked.

“Montenegro’s membership in the European Union is our main political goal and the citizens can and should gather around it,” Mlos Konatar, vice-president of the URA and head of the parliamentary group of the “Black on White” coalition, told DW. .

“The current government does not have the support of the parliamentary majority and the URA is not to blame for this. “We also have the possibility of electing the High State Prosecutor, the Judicial Council and the judges of the Constitutional Court, and we must look for a way to find the necessary three-fifths majority for this, ie 49 deputies in parliament,” said Konatar.

Minority government – a temporary solution

The new government may consist of the URA, the Socialist People’s Party (SNP), which is also part of the current government, as well as the minority opposition parties – the Bosniak Party and the two coalitions of Albanian parties. These all together have 14 deputies. The Social Democrats and the opposition Social Democratic Party could also enter the government. With the possible outside support of the 30 DPS deputies, the exact 49 deputies needed to elect the people in charge of justice, currently blocked, are achieved.

Will the new government, if it be a minority, be stronger than the current one? Can it implement the necessary reforms and will there be greater international support?

“First, we have to see what kind of political support it has and who does it,” political analyst Dragisa Janjusevic told DW. “Secondly, no minority government has had great reform potential in its mandate, but has been in the function of overcoming a crisis situation. “It is obvious that there will be international support, but also a shortened mandate,” Janjusevic said.

The Vice President of URA Konatar does not have this opinion: “I expect the government to last until the end of the mandate, ie until 2024 and at least one year to carry out the necessary reforms and to unblock the processes.”

Janjusevic, on the other hand, believes that the new minority government will have only a few important points on its agenda: “These are electoral law reforms, unblocking Montenegro’s European path, greater support for legal reforms and opening up. paving the way for economic reforms ”. “More reforms would require a more stable parliamentary majority, based on electoral will and a full mandate,” Janjusevic said.

“Betrayal of epic proportions”

Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapic, as well as some of the ruling parties, reacted harshly to the announcement of the overthrow of the current government and the formation of a minority government. The change of his government or its restructuring has been demanded for half a year by the Democratic Front (DF), which has stated that it is ready to discuss the proposal of the minority government, only if the DPS does not influence the political movements. .

Krivokapic himself called the minority government a hoax, backed by some ministers who have accused Abazovic of treason, while others have backed the URA leader. The Prime Minister, meanwhile, has asked the Assembly to replace Abazovic, as well as to shorten his term and move to early elections. The URA and the opposition called the move a “desperate move” and warned they would not support it.

Parliament Speaker and Democrat Speaker Aleksa Becic called the formation of the minority government with the support of the DPS “a betrayal of epic proportions”, accusing the URA of putting the previous regime back into play. Protests by government supporters in several cities and traffic jams immediately began. It has been warned that the protests will continue, currently they are not called by the parties, but the citizens gather on their own initiative.

“Everyone has the right to peaceful protest and I have nothing against it, but this is not about voter fraud, because the citizens in the elections of August 30, 2020 voted to replace the DPS, change the law on freedom of religion and start of the fight against corruption and organized crime and all this we have done. They also voted for Montenegro to move quickly towards the European Union and there we encountered a blockade, so we had to react and offer solutions “, explains Konatar from URA.

Analyst Janjusevic says he does not know how much capacity and potential citizens have for intense protests, which would create pressure. As for the “rewriting of the electoral will”, he says that few could realistically expect that a year and a half after the elections, a situation would arise for the minority government to be supported by the DPS, with Djukanovic at the helm.

Konatar says however that the DPS will not be part of the minority government and there is no return to power of this party.

“Support from DF would mean a more relaxed work of this government in priority areas, and still maintain the positions of DF” in depth “of the state administration. On the other hand, the DPS support with Djukanovic at the helm is like a sword of Damocles over the head of the minority government. “DPS without Djukanovic would give a completely different political note to this government and would show the readiness for reforms of the largest political party in Montenegro”, says Janjusevic.

Djukanovic’s political fate

Speculation in recent months regarding the minority government as one of the elements of the agreement has also mentioned that Djukanovic will step down as DPS chairman and will not run in the next 2023 presidential election. At the end of the year Gjukanoviçi hinted last year that during the first half of this year there could be changes in the direction of his party, but whether he will run for president again has not been announced.

Konatar believes it would be good for politicians, who are a symbol of the 1990s, to retire politically. “I think it would be good for both the DPS and the political scene in Montenegro, because that would make it easier and build bridges of co-operation between the new generation of politicians.” “Withdrawing Djukanovic from the head of the DPS would be a big step in that direction,” said Konatar.

Janjusevic thinks that Djukanovic should have already withdrawn from the political arena as chairman of the DPS and thus facilitate this project of the minority government and open reform processes in his party. “I think that in this game of political chess, Djukanovic first expects the formation of a minority government and then follows either his resignation or another way of withdrawing. “I think he will certainly not run for president of Montenegro in 2023,” Janjusevic concluded.

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