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Russian President Putin has put nuclear forces on alert. Observers think an atomic war is highly unlikely, yet they are following Putin’s move closely.
Amid news of fighting in Ukraine, refugees on the country’s western border and Russian attacks on Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday issued a statement that caused fear around the world: “I instruct the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff to put the restraining forces of the Russian army on a state of special alert.“Putin said in a conversation with high-ranking military representatives, which was broadcast on television.
Enigma in Putin’s war strategy
The “deterrent forces” that the Russian president is talking about include atomic forces, and this raises concerns about a possible escalation of the war in Ukraine, writes DW. A senior Pentagon official told a news conference on Sunday that Putin’s mention of nuclear capabilities was “not just an unnecessary step, but a step that escalates the situation.” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called the Russian president’s statement “irresponsible” and told CNN that it was “dangerous rhetoric”.
What changes this will bring to Russia’s strategy for the war is an enigma to the experts themselves: “It is still unclear what high readiness means,” wrote Hans Kristensen, director of Deutsche Wellen. of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists. “There is speculation that the increase in the readiness of the nuclear weapons command and control system is done to better prepare for the transmission of a ceasefire order,” he said. There are also those who say that it has to do with the increase of submarine activities with missiles, but it is not clear whether this exceeds the normal situation. “
The largest atomic arsenal in the world
According to various sources, Russia had in 2021 over 6257 nuclear weapons, thus being the country with the largest arsenal of atomic weapons in the world, followed by the US which in 2021 had over 5500 nuclear weapons.
1760 Russian nuclear weapons have been taken out of operation and are waiting to be dismantled, says the Arms Control Association, an independent organization based in the US. Thus Moscow has over 4497 active nuclear weapons. They are not all ready to be used directly, so they are not in a firing position, where they can fire within a minute if the government orders a nuclear attack.
In September 2021, Russia had 1,458 nuclear weapons deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic missiles based on submarines and strategic bombers. These are the current figures made available under the New START agreement, the agreement between the US and Russia on the reduction of nuclear weapons. Under the agreement, current data on nuclear weapons are published every six months. All Moscow atomic weapons are stationed in Russia, writes Kristensen.
But submarines with nuclear weapons on board occasionally patrol international waters, which “is normal and is also done by Western atomic powers,” says the expert.
Clashes between NATO and Russia?
The Kremlin has said that the increase in the readiness of the atomic forces is a reaction to the statements of the West about possible confrontations between Russian soldiers and NATO troops. “There have been statements from various representatives at different levels about possible confrontations or even clashes between NATO and Russia,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a news conference on Monday (February 27th). “We think such statements are absolutely unacceptable.”
It is unclear which statement Peskov has in mind. One Western politician he directly mentioned was British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. But neither Truss nor any other representative of the West has spoken of any NATO attack on Russian troops.
Experts believe that Putin wants to remind the world that Russia is an atomic force with which no problems should be created. His remarks came shortly after the EU and US imposed harsh economic sanctions on Russia, which have never been imposed on the country. “Putin is probably acting to scare the West into making concessions,” Kristensen wrote. “This is a typical bold policy for him.”
Reaction due to lack of success?
The move may also be motivated by a lack of military success during the current invasion of Ukraine, says Marc Finaud, an expert on arms control at the Center for Security Policy, an international foundation based in Switzerland. “The military situation in Ukraine is not so “Clearly, as Putin envisioned,” Finaud told DW. “That may be why the Russian president needed to mention his country’s nuclear weapons force.”
Whatever Putin’s reason for saying those words, says Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army general who has served as commander of US forces in Europe, Putin’s escalating rhetoric does not surprise him: “Of course he does not “The threat of atomic weapons costs him nothing,” Hodges told DW. A real atomic attack is another story. “If they were to take the terrible step of using an atomic weapon, no matter how big or small, it would cost Putin and Russia dearly.”
Russia’s long-range strategic nuclear weapons could reach anywhere in the world, writes Kristensen. But a Russian atomic attack would most likely have a counterattack by the US or another Western atomic power. An ensuing atomic war would have catastrophic consequences for far more countries than the two participating countries.
Explosive power much greater than that during World War II
According to Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR), an independent UK-based organization, the use of a single nuclear missile in a city would be enough to make effective medical and humanitarian assistance impossible. The detonation of several dozen or hundreds of rockets, says SGR, would lead to large fires, “resistant parts of which would rise to the top and affect the global climate and destroy large-scale agriculture and cause famine.” ”.
Modern atomic weapons are far more capable than the two atomic bombs that the U.S. dropped in World War II over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. They had explosive force of 15 and 20 kilotons of TNT. According to the international campaign to eliminate atomic weapons, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017, today’s Russia and US atomic weapons have explosive power that is at least 100 kilotons of TNT.
Four cases where Russia could use atomic weapons
The fact that Putin is putting Russian atomic forces “in a special mode of military intervention” is not seen as the last step taken before an atomic war breaks out. The Russian atomic doctrine, self-confirmed by Putin in 2020, states that Russia would use atomic weapons only in four cases: if ballistic missiles hit Russia or the territories of an allied country, if an enemy used atomic weapons in response. to an attack on Russian atomic weapons plants, or in response to an attack that would jeopardize the existence of the Russian state. None of these cases appear in the case of the war with Ukraine
“If [Putini] would really plan an atomic attack, we would surely see mobile missiles moving inland and launching submarines at sea. “In addition, fighter jets would be equipped and non-strategic nuclear forces would not be deployed,” Kristensen wrote. “Such an attack is completely impossible. “If Russia and NATO were in a direct military confrontation and Russia was losing, then things would be different.”
An atomic attack on Ukraine, a country that is not a NATO member and does not possess atomic weapons, is seen by experts as unrealistic. “Such an attack would not make sense,” Finaud said. “If the goal is to take Ukraine, Russia would not want to invade a mountain of radioactive waste.”
Where will the end be for Putin?
German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht also called Putin’s statement in Deutschlandfunk on Monday a threatening gesture: “However: We have seen how unpredictable Putin is, so we must be very vigilant now.”
Weapons control expert Finaud is pleased that in response the US has not stepped up its readiness. A “fairly moderate” reaction indicates how further escalation can be prevented. At the same time, Finaud warns that the use of atomic weapons should not be seen as a threat that Putin would never bring to life: “We have seen Putin cross the border in a matter of days for many things. In each of the early stages we thought he would not go further because that would not be in Russia’s national interest. But each time he went further. ”/ DW
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