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Russia does not seem to be moving much from its combat tactics, and the lack of the surprise element is helping experts predict its moves.
Hanna Notte, of the Vienna Center for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, sees great similarities between Moscow’s actions in Syria and Ukraine, and even parallels can be found with the war in Chechnya.
“I have identified five parallels. First, Russia is waging war in sequences, at certain stages. The second is the tactic of besieging cities and bombing them, and then I quote the creation of “humanitarian corridors.” Third: Foreign fighters. This is a complex issue, because Russia on the one hand accuses the other side of mobilizing foreign legionnaires, but then does it itself. Parallels four and five deal with misinformation, when it is claimed that the adversary is using people as shields. Russia has often accused terrorists of using people as shields. Now they are doing the same with the Azov battalion in Mariupol. And Russia uses misinformation: It accuses the other side of carrying out covert chemical attacks“, Says Notte.
The expert talks about sequential warfare by Moscow. In Syria, the Assad regime and the Russian military, which intervened in September 2015, continuously stopped fighting in certain parts of the country to operate elsewhere.
This gave them the opportunity to take other territories, but also to reorganize and gather powers. She also views with suspicion the security corridors that open in Mariupol, as in Syria people leaving could go to other areas within the country such as Idlib, while in Mariupol people take them by bus to Russia.
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