The MP who is hampering the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO

The atmosphere seems dark in the corridors of Brussels, as well as in Stockholm and Helsinki, as hopes are fading that something can be achieved in the days left before the summit to be held in the Spanish capital.

What could have been the fastest membership process in the alliance’s history – with the two Nordic states, which could become members 31 and 32 by the end of the summer – seems difficult to achieve. Instead, it is rumored that this stalemate could last year-round.

In the end, all the attention remains on the enigmatic leader of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose harsh statements against Finland, and especially against Sweden, are being taken more seriously than initially. Others look across the Atlantic, hoping US President Joe Biden can resolve the stalemate.

And, if that does not happen, there is still hope that the prime ministers of Sweden and Finland, Magdalena Andersson and Sanna Marin, respectively, can create room for maneuver.

But, there is another person who may be able to unlock the whole situation even though she may turn out to be the most difficult protagonist to be convinced by all. Meet Amineh Kakabaveh – a Kurdish woman of Iranian descent and a former Peshmerga fighter, who is currently an independent MP and a very influential person in the Swedish Parliament.

Kakabaveh is undoubtedly one of the most intriguing, controversial and well-known politicians in Sweden. Just go no further than the title of her 2016 autobiography – “Amineh – No bigger than a Kalashnikov” (Amineh – inte större enn en kalasjnikov) to understand why.

Born in the northwestern province of Kurdistan, Iran in 1970, she joined Kurdish guerrillas at the age of 13 but emigrated to Sweden six years later. Working primarily as a sanitary worker while attending evening classes, she finally received her master’s degree in social sciences from Stockholm University. In 2008, she entered Parliament for the left-wing party (Vänsterpartiet) and has since been re-elected to every governing term. She was even named “Sweden of the Year” by one of the most influential political publications.

Despite being a self-proclaimed Marxist, she was ousted from her party three years ago after fierce squabbles over what she perceived as the political left’s ignorance of the role of patriarchal clan structures in immigrant-populated suburbs – something for which many of her party colleagues considered “Islamophobic”.

And, precisely as an independent politician she has really made a name for herself lately. Thanks to her support, the Andersson-led Social Democratic minority government was able to see the light last year.

And to secure her vote, she was promised many things, mainly related to Stockholm’s support for various Kurdish issues:

Increased co-operation with the PYD, a Kurdish left-wing party in Syria that Ankara opposes? Yes!

Support for the Syrian Kurdish militia “YPG”, which Ankara says is a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey? Yes!

Demand for the release of Turkish-Kurdish politician Selhattin Demirtash serving a sentence in a Turkish prison? Yes!

But it does not end there.

Last week, the Swedish government almost collapsed after the opposition declared a no-confidence motion against the Minister of Justice. In a long-awaited vote, they were missing one vote – that of Kakabaveh, of course.

And while no new request was formalized between her and the ruling party, she told the media that she expects Sweden to maintain the arms embargo on Turkey and that more needs to be done to ease restrictions on about 130 Kurds in Sweden, who are seen as a threat to national security by the Swedish security services, because of their connection to the YPG.

She also noted, not without a threatening tinge, that next week there is another crucial vote in the Swedish Parliament on approving the spring budget. And, if the Government can not reach a slightly possible agreement with the right-wing parties, the pressing of the green button by it, will once again prove crucial for the budget to enter into force.

With Finland unlikely to go it alone, as it applied to join NATO alongside its largest neighbor, it appears the Swedish Government’s precarious position will prevent any possible agreement with Turkey to happen soon.

Many countries in the West have lifted, or at least not applied, the arms embargo on Turkey, but for now it seems impossible for Sweden to follow suit.

Nor does it seem likely that Stockholm will now be able to decide to classify the YPG as a terrorist organization, as it did with the PKK decades ago. And, the extradition of Turkish nationals suspected of being involved in each of the organizations that currently have their headquarters in Sweden is unlikely to happen.

But even in Turkey things are complicated by the fact that Erdogan may feel nervous about the decline of his popularity due to the country’s economic difficulties and high inflation rate. And, where is the best time to rekindle nationalist sentiment ahead of next year’s general election?

But even before that, Sweden held general elections in September.

After this election, Kakabaveh may no longer be in a privileged position, thus freeing Stockholm from some of the commitments made to it.

Or will the Social Democrats abandon it and their commitments to it after next week’s vote on the budget, reckoning that the Swedish people in general are more interested in boosting their security with a quick NATO membership than in opposing Erdogan supporting the various Kurdish causes?

Something must be given if the Swedish government wants to unblock the stalemate before or during the NATO summit in Madrid. REL

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