What lies behind Turkey’s threats of attacks in Syria?

Tensions are high. It is unlikely that a day will pass without exchanges of fire and shelling between US-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters and Turkish-backed Turkish forces and Syrian opposition forces.

Analysts say Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking advantage of the war in Ukraine to advance his goals in neighboring Syria – even using Turkey’s position as a NATO member to veto Finland’s membership, and Sweden in alliance.

Why is Turkey against Finland and Sweden in NATO?

But a major incursion from Ankara comes with risks and complications, threatening to sever Turkey’s ties with the United States and Russia.

He also risks creating a new wave of displacement in a war-torn region, where the Islamic State militant group is still hiding in the shadows.

Turkish ambitions

Last month, Erdogan outlined plans to resume Turkish efforts to establish a defensive zone, 30 kilometers deep in Syria, along its southern border, through a cross-border incursion against Syrian Kurdish fighters.

Erdogan wanted to create that area in 2019, but the military operation of that time could not reach it.

“One night we will come down on them. “And it should,” Erdogan said, without giving a timeline.

Since 2016, Turkey has launched three major operations inside Syria, targeting Syria’s main Kurdish military forces, known as the People’s Defense Unit (YPG).

Turkey considers it a terrorist organization and an illegal extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The PKK, for decades, has waged an uprising within Turkey against the Government in Ankara.

The YPG, however, is the backbone of US-led forces in the fight against Islamic State militants and has been a key US ally in Syria.

Turkey, through three previous military operations in Syria, already has control over a large part of Syrian territory, including the cities of Afrin, Tel Abjad and Jarablus.

Ankara plans to build thousands of housing units in those areas, to ensure what it says is the “voluntary return” of one million Syrian refugees – up from 3.7 million currently in Turkey.

Erdogan said Wednesday that Turkish troops are now aiming to take new areas, including the cities of Tel Rifat and Manbij, which are located at the crossroads of Syria’s north-eastern highway, known as the M4.

Turkey says Syrian Kurdish fighters are using Tel Rifat as a base to attack areas under the control of Turkish-backed Syrian opposition fighters.

There have also been reports that Turkish troops may enter the strategic border town of Kobani, where the US military and Kurdish fighters first joined forces to defeat Islamic State in 2015.

The city has a strong symbolism for the Syrian Kurds and their ambitions for self-government in this part of Syria.

Why now?

Analysts say Erdogan seems to see a combination of international and domestic circumstances that make an operation in Syria appropriate.

The Russians are preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, and the Americans need Erdogan to lift his opposition to NATO enlargement with Finland and Sweden.

“They (the Turks) see an opportunity to try and draw concessions from the West,” said Aaron Stein, head of research at the Philadelphia Institute for Foreign Policy Research.

An offensive in Syria could also be used to mobilize Turkish nationalist voters, at a time when their economy is in decline – with inflation reaching 73.5%.

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections next year, and previous incursions into Syria to oust the YPG have strengthened support for Erdogan in past elections.

So far, there are no signs of mobilization indicating an imminent invasion, although the Turkish army may be put on alert quite quickly.

Syrian Kurdish fighters say they are taking Turkey’s latest threat seriously and are preparing for a possible attack.

They warn that the incursion would affect their ongoing fight against Islamic State and their ability to protect prisons in northern Syria, home to thousands of extremists – many of them foreign nationals.

Turkey’s ties with America and Russia

A large-scale military operation carries high risks and is likely to anger the US and Russia, which also have a military presence in northern Syria.

Turkey and Russia support rivals in Syria’s 11-year conflict, but are closely coordinated in the north of the country. Russia has not yet commented officially, but in recent days, according to Syrian opposition activists, it has sent fighter jets and helicopters to a base near the border with Turkey.

As one of Damascus’s closest allies, Russia’s role in Syria has been crucial to turning the conflict in favor of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Syrian opposition fighters fled to an enclave in the northwest and to Turkey’s sphere of influence.

But with Moscow focused on Ukraine, it is unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will prevent Erdogan from taking what is essentially just a small piece of land along Turkey’s southern border.

Washington has made clear its opposition to a Turkish military incursion, saying it would jeopardize what has been achieved with difficulty in the campaign against the Islamic State.

“We recognize Turkey’s legitimate security concerns at its border. “But again, we are concerned that any new offensive would further undermine regional stability,” said State Department spokeswoman Ned Price.

Analyst Stein said any operation would be complicated, due to the Russian presence in both hotspots: Kobani and Tel Rifat.

Whether the operation will take place raises the question of how far Erdogan is prepared to go in Syria, especially in and around the Kobani area – and whether he would pass without being challenged by Moscow and Washington.

“How many risks is he willing to take?” “The evidence we have shows that he is in great danger,” Stein said.

top channel