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As Russia and Ukraine prepare for what could be the biggest tank battle in Europe since World War II, the future of the war launched by Vladimir Putin remains impossible to predict.
Large-scale mobilization of tanks and artillery on the flat open ground of Eastern Ukraine could favor Moscow, and the heavy weight of Russian military machinery could bring territorial benefits.
But other results are possible. The courage of the Ukrainians, their great tactical ability on the ground, and their access to Western weapons and equipment could produce another set of humiliating obstacles for Russia.
The worst-case scenario for Putin would be for Russia’s war in Ukraine to end in a full-blown military defeat, with the collapse of pro-Russian enclaves in the Donbas and Moldova, as well as Ukraine’s integration into the West.
Such a loss would be more than a personal humiliation, for his career as a politician. It would also cause a great deal of psychological and strategic shock to Russia’s position and self-image. It would change the course of Russian history.
Russia would not be the first former empire to face a moment of accountability before history. The defeat of Spain in 1898 in the face of the new US state, was a decisive moment in Spanish history. The global empire that had shaped Spain since Columbus’s expeditions had suddenly disappeared, and the Spaniards began to question everything from the monarchy to the role of the church.
For Britain and France, their humiliating failure during the Suez Crisis of 1956 forced both countries to realize that they were no longer independent global powers. The glories of the former empires were over, and the 2 former superpowers began in pain and reluctantly to adapt to their new circumstances.
A decisive Russian failure in Ukraine could bring the same situation to Moscow. In the event that Russia fails to conquer the heart of Ukraine (Western Ukraine is less of a problem in Russian historical mythology), the Russians will not be able to avoid the conclusion that the Tsarist empire, built at great cost over many centuries , and
restored by Lenin and Stalin after the catastrophe of the First World War, has fallen irreversibly.
This will force Russia to undergo a kind of deep self-reflection, just like other former empires. The consequences will be enormous. Under the Romanovs, the Communists, and now Putin’s, Russian political thought is shaped by three beliefs: that Russia is different, that change is transcendental, and that it gives Russia a unique role in world history.
The loss in Ukraine would fundamentally undermine confidence in these ideas, plunging Russia into an identity crisis with unpredictable political consequences. Tsars, communist commissars, and today Putinists, saw Russia as unique and committed to a war against the West.
To the tsars, Moscow was the “third Rome”, which would hold the torch of Christianity and civilization, as the first Rome fell into the hands of barbarian invaders, and the second Rome (Constantinople) fell into the hands of the Turks.
To the communists, Moscow was the stronghold of the proletarian global revolution, destined to annihilate the decadent bourgeois culture of the West. Putin and his associates see it the same way. According to them, Russia is engaged in a struggle for survival against Western decadence, wickedness and unbridled greed.
To keep itself on equal footing with the more developed West, and to ensure proper governance for its unique psyche, Russia, its rulers have always argued, had to concentrate power at the top.
Only a leader as strong as Catherine the Great, Stalin, or as his admirers like Putin put it, can enable Russia to dominate in its confrontation with the West. The crux of the matter is Ukraine. With Ukraine under control, Moscow sees itself as the largest power in Europe.
Without Ukraine, the dream of Russia being able to regain the Soviet Union’s status as a superpower would suffer a bitter end. Worse still: perhaps from the point of view of “Eurasian” theorists and radical Russian nationalists, who give a kind of legitimacy cover to the Putin regime, an orthodox, Slavic and democratic Ukrainian victory over despotic Russia would not only challenge the personal legitimacy of Vladimir Putin.
On the contrary, it would challenge the idea of Russian uniqueness, and would fatally undermine the view that despotism is the form of government that best suits the Russian spirit. While the war is exposing the inherent wickedness and cruelty of the Putin regime, and as atrocities abroad and repression within Russia are leaving more and more traces, it is impossible not to hope for a Russian defeat in this war.
However, care must be taken. Putin and those around him know that in Ukraine they are not just fighting for a border adjustment. They are fighting for their world, so it may be psychologically impossible for them to accept defeat, until every measure, no matter how ruthless, or every weapon, no matter how hated, is used to the maximum. For Vladimir Putin and the people around him, the risks in Ukraine are infinitely great./ “Wall Street Journal”, bota.al
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