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The Russian occupation of Ukraine has strengthened the determination of Europeans to defend democracy and the European security architecture. At the same time, many politicians and academics have turned their eyes away from the Balkans, fearing what Russian influence is capable of doing in a region characterized by political instability, economic problems and the emigration of the most educated.
The situation becomes even more troubling due to ongoing ethnic tensions, which remain unresolved even after about 3 decades since the break-up of Yugoslavia. The possibility of a Russian invasion of the 6 Western Balkan countries – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia and Serbia – is low.
Especially because Albania, Montenegro and Northern Macedonia are already members of NATO. However, Russia can continue to easily destabilize the region, thus sabotaging the chances of the six countries becoming members of the European Union, which they have been aspiring to since 2005.
Questions have already been raised about how Bosnia could one day join the EU, when Milorad Dodik is pursuing Russian-backed separatist aspirations for Republika Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Serb-majority entity). Kosovo’s aspirations, meanwhile, remain blocked by the refusal of some countries – including Russia and Serbia – to recognize its independence.
Serbia, which has already qualified as a candidate for EU membership, continues to strike a delicate balance between its alignment with EU foreign policy, and its cultural and historical ties to its “Slavic brother”, Russia. .
This tension was evident during a press conference given by Serbian President Alexandar Vucic together with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on March 11, when Vucic refused to mention the Russian occupation, vaguely alluding to “what is happening in Ukraine.
Domestically, he has support for maintaining closer ties with Russia, as shown by a recent poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations, which found that 54 percent of Serb citizens see Russia as an ally, 95 for percent as a necessary partner, and only 11 percent see the EU as an ally.
But what can the EU do in these conditions? Since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, European politicians have repeatedly stressed that they see the future of the region within the EU, stating that a “merit-based perspective
“full EU membership for the Western Balkans is still part of the union’s security policy and economic interest.”
The Czech presidency of the EU, which will start in July 2022, is likely to prioritize the issue of union enlargement in Southeast Europe. However, words must be followed by concrete actions. Instead of reducing the main enlargement policy mechanism (Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance), as decided during the 2021-2027 budget cycle, funding for the region should be increased, if Brussels wants to show a real commitment to enlargement process.
As Serbian analyst Dusan Reljic explains, “during 2021-2027, the Western Balkans will be given only 500 euros per capita”, a rate that is certainly not indicative of a serious engagement with the region.
Moreover, the EU must find a lasting solution to the phenomenon of continued migration from the region of more educated people, which has left many countries in the Balkans demographically impoverished and without economic potential.
According to World Bank estimates, about 4.6 million people left the 6 Western Balkan countries between 1990-2019, or about 25 percent of the population. As is often the case, individuals leaving the country are young people with higher education, with a liberal mindset, so they can be a driving force for bringing their countries closer to a more European future.
But instead, as Allison Carragher argues, their continued exodus from the country (which mainly benefits Germany and Italy) is hurting the prospect of these countries one day joining the European Union.
Finally, the EU must take a more principled and tough stance towards Russia, which will aim to continually undermine European policies in the Balkans, and take advantage of any political weaknesses. This also applies to the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (OHR), which Russia is openly trying to close.
This office was established by the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, which ended the war in Bosnia. Since then, the OHR has aimed to implement the civilian aspects of the peace agreement, and
support the establishment of democratic structures. In 2021, the former High Representative, Valentin Inzko, ended his 12-year term.
Before leaving, he spurred the passage of several laws criminalizing genocide denial, sparking escalating actions by Serb separatists. Many Bosnian Serbs still do not acknowledge the genocide that took place in Srebrenica in 1995.
Inzko’s decision did not contribute to facilitating interethnic reconciliation and strengthening democratic structures. Moreover, he provoked a strong reaction from Russia, which has since tried to remove the mission from Bosnia.
Although the OHR will have to close as an office before Bosnia can join the EU, how that happens will be crucial. To avoid a resurgence of ethnic conflict in Bosnia, the EU will need to exercise strict control over the reconciliation process.
Even the most optimistic observer in the West would be forced to admit that Russia has the capacity to provoke conflict and seriously destabilize the Balkans, a region of added importance to Europe’s security architecture.
By fomenting territorial disputes, supporting separatist politicians, and undermining democratic institutions, the region could potentially plunge into a state of chaos without the Kremlin having to send even a Russian tank there.
That is why it is so important for the EU to follow Winston Churchill’s famous advice to “never let a good crisis go to waste”. It must use its newly found determination after the Russian occupation of Ukraine to formulate a clearer strategy for the Balkans.
Offering the 6 Western Balkan countries a sustainable path to EU membership, after 18 years of stagnation, would be the right response to Russia’s efforts to undermine the progress made in the region over the past three decades. bota.al
Note: Margit Wunsch Gaarmann, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
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