Analysis / What could happen from a possible Marine Le Pen presidency?

The first round of voting positioned Le Pen 5 percent behind Macron. The fact that 57 percent of French voters chose left-wing or far-right candidates in the first round – while the center-right traditional parties were humiliated again – is seen as a bad omen for a centrist president like Macron.

The first poll, based on the second round, shows that Macron can beat Le Pen with a score of 54 versus 46 percent. This may reinforce the view that a Le Pen victory remains nearly impossible. But the embarrassing reality is that the far right is reaching unprecedented levels of consensus in post-1945 French history.

And during the 2-week campaign many things can happen. So instead of dismissing Le Pen’s chances, it’s time to think seriously about what her possible victory would mean for France and beyond. Is she still an “extreme right” politician? Or could a Le Pen presidency be less shocking to the system than many people imagine?

The fact that Le Pen is so close to the presidency is proof of the success in “detoxifying” her image. She split a few years ago with her father and party founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who had a long history of racism. In this election, Marine Le Pen has campaigned primarily on the cost of living issues.

She has given up on the most controversial policies that brought about her loss in 2017, such as calling for France to leave the eurozone, or even reinstating the death penalty. She has also used the war in Ukraine to distance herself from Vladimir Putin, claiming she has “changed” her view of the Russian leader.

But her former admiration for Putin and Donald Trump is still evident. Like them, Le Pen claims to represent the people against the elite, and the nation against the “globalists.” Her campaign slogan “Give the French back their country” echoes Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, and Brexit supporters’ “Take Control of Your Country Again”.

Le Pen’s program still contains far-right policies. Her promise to impose a complete ban on Muslim women wearing headscarves in public is completely un-liberal and would be unprecedented in Europe. Le Pen says police would be instructed to impose fines on all women wearing the hijab.

But relations between the police and non-white or Muslim communities, already strained, are likely to deteriorate further. The French left, always prone to protests, would take to the streets if it won Le Pen. France still has fresh consequences of the “Yellow Vest” protests in 2018-2019, and may again face social unrest.

At the other end of the spectrum, a Le Pen victory could shake up financial markets, strengthening the sense of crisis. A highly polarized France would have negative consequences across Europe. The consequences for the EU would be severe, even existential.

French statesmen like Jean Monnet, Robert Schuman and Jacques Delors were once key figures of the European project. But Le Pen aims to destroy the EU. It promises to restore the primacy of French law over EU law, which is incompatible with membership in the 27-nation union.

It also pledges to unilaterally reduce France’s contributions to the EU budget. Within Europe, Le Pen has cultivated links with “non-liberal democrats” in Hungary and Poland. She was quick to congratulate Victor Orban on his victory earlier this month, despite the latter being accused by the EU of violating the rule of law, suppressing media freedom and corruption.

At best, Le Pen does not worry about Orban’s sins. At worst, she sees him as a role model for France. With Le Pen at the helm of France, Orban’s claim that his ill-liberal nationalism represents the future of Europe would seem more plausible.

Matteo Salvini in Italy – who like Le Pen is modeled on Putin and Trump – would be closer to power. Reactions in Brussels and Berlin to a Le Pen victory would be appalling, perhaps followed by negotiations. Unable to abandon the EU project, France’s partners would seek to make Le Pen’s extremist policies somewhat compatible with EU membership.

But it is not just an enemy of the EU. Le Pen has called NATO a “war-mongering organization”, and has vowed to remove France from its command structure. She also opposes sanctions on Russia in the energy sector, claiming they would increase the cost of living in France. Putin has recently experienced several catastrophic weeks. But French voters can still offer some hope.

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