Debate on banning gas supplies from Russia

The president of the mining, chemicals and energy industry union, Michael Vassiliadis, told German radio that Germany’s energy supply is in the midst of a transformation. This takes time. Completely giving up gas supplies from Russia, even by 2025, is an ambitious policy goal, Vassiliadis explained. Nor is an immediate supply stop a responsible action.

Even with a 50 percent reduction in Russian gas imports, the world’s largest chemical zone, BASF in Ludwigshafen, for example, would have to close completely, as it could no longer be kept safely in operation. Hundreds of thousands of jobs would be at risk, according to Vassiliadis.

Scholz: ban on imports – a major disruption in some industrial sectors

Chancellor Scholz had previously warned on ARD television that a ban on imports would lead to a major disruption in some industrial sectors in Germany. It would then threaten a significant economic crisis and endanger many jobs.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said after a meeting with G7 energy ministers about allegations that the West was helping to finance the war in Ukraine by continuing to import gas from Russia, that these funds are not crucial for Russia in financing of war. Putin has many other tools, Habeck said.

Habeck warned this weekend against panic purchases in the event of a sudden outage of Russian oil and gas supplies. People then would probably not just use fewer vehicles, but there would be a run at gas stations similar to what happened at the beginning of the Corona pandemic on toilet paper, the Green politician told ARD television.

Researchers: A decline in GDP of 0.5 to 3 percent is expected

The chairman of the Bundestag’s European Affairs Committee, Anton Hofreiter, meanwhile, called this weekend for an immediate energy embargo on Russia. Hundreds of millions of euros are transferred to Moscow every day, allowing the Russian state and its military apparatus to function, he told The Pioneer news portal. An embargo is technically possible and economically affordable. It would only result in a moderate recession. Two to three percent of gross domestic product would fall, Hofreiter estimated. EU countries like Finland, Poland and Latvia are also demanding an embargo.

Researchers from the universities of Bonn and Cologne recently estimated that the sudden ban on Russian energy imports would lead to a decline in GDP between 0.5 and 3 percent, while in 2020 the decline in GDP due to the pandemic had been 4.5 percent.

Political scientist Alexander Libmann skeptical of influence

Alexander Libmann, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin and a specialist in Eastern Europe and Russia, expressed his skepticism in mid-March about the effect of a sudden power outage. He does not think that the term “coffin of war”, which is being used too often in the media, can be understood so simply. “The army currently operating in Ukraine is not funded by current oil and gas revenues. It can hold the war without this income, at least for the short term. “Rather, it is a matter of medium-term effects and Russia’s ability for the state to build a stable armed force, but in the case of Ukraine, everything is already too late.”

Schäuble for a quick import ban

Former Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble also insisted on banning Russian gas and oil supplies from Russia. The CDU politician told the newspaper “Welt am Sonntag” that even if it is bitter, it should be given up as soon as possible. Germany does not always have to be the brake of the western alliance.

FDP Liberal spokesman for energy Kruse, on the other hand, spoke out against the import ban. He told German radio station Deutschlandfunk that currently not enough natural gas could be imported in any other way to meet national demand. However, he believes that by the end of the year it will be possible to do without Russian oil and coal./DW

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