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“Indirectly, the Russian occupation of Ukraine poses a threat to the countries of the Western Balkans,” Edward Joseph, a lecturer at the Johns Hopkins University for Advanced International Studies and an expert on developments in the Balkans, told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.
“It is indirectly threatening (Russian occupation of Ukraine). Many people are worried, especially in Bosnia, about a surprise war. You can not rule it out. You can not say it will not happen. Or, that there will be no conflict in Kosovo at all. “So, it could happen.”
“Even Russian influence and objectives are met even without war. Putin does not win in the Balkans only if there is a new war. No, Putin wins with this ‘status quo’. “Putin wins by maintaining instability in the region,” said Edward Joseph. .
“Putin says look, the European Union and the United States can not even fix this chaos. People lose interest. I must also emphasize that Vladimir Putin wins when his allies like Aleksandar Vucic and Rumen Radev win. “So when they are strong, then he is the winner.”
“Serbia is the only country in Europe that has not yet imposed sanctions on Russia. This represents a victory for him. Air Serbia flies to Moscow. This, too, is a victory. Putin must be isolated, while Serbia does not isolate him. The Minister of Foreign Affairs will meet with Lavrov…. “So this is another way for Putin to win,” said Joseph, an expert on developments in the Balkans.
Asked about Serbia’s ignorance of EU and US demands to harmonize its foreign policy with Western policy and impose sanctions on Russia, Joseph said:
“My opinion is that it is completely stable for Aleksandar Vucic to defend this position. First, look at how many months he has held this position [Vuçiqi]. Do you see any action, reaction? Jo. Do you see that self-confidence has increased in Belgrade? Yes.
“Ai [Vuçiçi] signed a three-year gas supply contract with Putin. He still continues his relationship of dependence with Putin, pretending that he is interested in EU membership, although for 10 years he has done almost nothing for EU membership. I will call this manipulation a sharad [nga frëngjishtja charade-maskaradë, lojë]. This shard continues and the European Union and the United States of America, do nothing for one reason – because of Kosovo and Belgrade’s advantage over Kosovo, because the European Union is divided as far as Kosovo is concerned “.
Joseph emphasizes that the Russian influence poses a threat to the European integration of Northern Macedonia and the countries of the region, underlining that the issue of extreme nationalism in Bulgaria as a reflection reminds him, as he puts it, of what Russia is doing in Ukraine.
“Think about how Russia, and especially Putin, calls Ukraine an ‘artificial country.’ His attitude (towards Ukraine) is that we are much stronger while you are less powerful. You are an artificial place. You are actually Russian in a way. “Your identity does not exist, it is artificial.”
“We have the same approach from Bulgaria, not by force, but still using its influence. Bulgaria exploits its influence as an EU member state to say that in essence you (Northern Macedonia) are an artificial country, and you are just an artificial Yugoslav creature, while your language and history is based on our Bulgarian identity and we are more influential than you. So where is the difference here? The approach is the same, only the tactics are different “, estimates Edward Joseph./REL
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