Financial Times: Will the deployment of thousands of NATO troops on its eastern borders strengthen Europe?

Elite troops of the French special forces, guard the Black Sea coast in Romania. US missile batteries protect Slovakia airspace. A Norwegian F-35 fighter jet tries to intercept an unidentified Russian aircraft appearing off the coast of Finland.

As the bloody war in Ukraine continues, NATO allies along the east side of the alliance have collectively launched the most important and fastest military deployment in the history of modern Europe. A state of readiness and mobilization without war, also far from peace.

The invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin has put Europe and NATO back in a scenario he thought he had left in the past. With major questions about its importance at this time, especially after the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, and with many divisions among European allies with very different views on its role in the future, the alliance had designated 2022 as the year of the pursuit of the US in its focus towards Asia and the threat posed there by China.

But in a matter of weeks, it has achieved an unprecedented level of unity in response to its initial rival, Moscow. Today Eastern Europe is more militarized than ever since the height of the Cold War. The nuclear-armed superpowers are facing the vast expanse between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.

Cold War-era arms control agreements have also been overturned, such as the INF Treaty banning intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 500-5500 km, and the Open Skies Agreement, which allowed Russia and NATO members to conduct reconnaissance flights over the military facilities of others.

The same goes for communication channels and easing tensions between Moscow and Western capitals. The result is a continent with more weapons and soldiers in a state of high alert than has been seen for decades, but without the defense mechanisms that gave us security during the Cold War.

Europe is probably less secure today than at any other time since 1945. This has raised the question of whether NATO’s extensive military deployment has made Europe more protected, or only exacerbated it. situation that was already difficult.

The Russian president sees it as the latest step in an increasingly threatening stance of the West, which also justified his attack on Kiev. In recent days, Putin has escalated his rhetoric about a possible strike on NATO members, an act that would likely hasten the start of a new world war.

Meanwhile, the alliance argues that there is no other solution but to expand its presence in Eastern Europe. “Is this safer?” “Well, if we do not, we will not be safe,” said Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, the alliance’s highest military authority.

“Not being strong and reliable is more dangerous than being strong and reliable. “The prevention factor is very important,” he added. Less than two weeks after the start of Putin’s occupation, NATO abandoned its decades-long approach to its military presence in Europe and the risk of antagonizing Moscow.

It did so even when Putin vowed to retaliate against repeated threats to use nuclear weapons. The 40,000 troops in Eastern Europe are currently under direct NATO command, 10 times their number the day before Putin’s invasion.

Eight alliance countries now have NATO combat groups on their territory, twice as many as 2 months ago. And a rapid reaction force, consisting of up to 10,000 troops, has been activated in the name of collective defense for the first time in alliance history.

“Everything changed when the Russians invaded Ukraine. Undoubtedly affected the high number of casualties and destruction, and the way the operations were carried out. “European security and defense has evolved more in the last six days than in the last two decades,” said European Commission President Ursula Von Der Lejen on March 1.

At the time of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the US had 200,000 troops in West Germany. Today, NATO’s eastern armies, from the Baltic in the north to Bulgaria in the Black Sea, currently have about 330,000 troops: their national armies, reinforced with troops from Western Europe, the US and Canada.

In addition to ground forces, about 130 NATO aircraft are on high alert, and about 150 warships are patrolling the seas. In fact, NATO’s response to the invasion of Ukraine had been in the making for 4 years. A series of emergency steps had been prepared in advance by the alliance defense leaders precisely for this scenario.

“Crimea taught us that it is not us who set the deadline for a war, but the adversary, the enemy. And that led to a discussion: Does this change really fit into our plans and strategies? “And basically the answer was no,” Bauer said.

Putin’s opposition to what he sees as an unstoppable NATO expansion to the east has been like a steady ringing of bells in Moscow for more than 22 years since he took over Russia. Since the reunification of Germany and the collapse of the Soviet Union, 12 countries have joined the alliance.

NATO’s eastern flank is today 1,100 km closer to the Kremlin than the West German border in 1989. Even when he announced the invasion of Ukraine in February, Putin repeatedly turned to the topic of NATO enlargement as an excuse. But Bauer describes such rhetoric as “meaningless.”

“We are responding to Putin’s actions. We are not doing this because we want to show an aggressive attitude. “He is attacking Ukraine. He is in Belarus. He attacked Georgia. We have never attacked Russia. “We are just reacting to his actions,” said a senior NATO official.

Finland’s membership would increase the NATO-Russia border by more than 1,300 km, more than double its current length. Moscow has warned that Finland or Sweden’s entry into NATO would impose a military response from Russia, ending “the non-nuclear status of the Baltic Sea.”

Under these conditions, NATO says strengthening its defenses in the east is still far from complete. At the alliance summit to be held in Madrid in June, plans are expected to be approved to continue strengthening the eastern flank. Bauer says possible future steps include stronger command and control systems, integrated air and missile defense systems, and larger troop deployments than existing groups.

This would be supported by large reserves of ammunition, medical and missile defense. Bauer says NATO remains committed to efforts to de-escalate the situation, but Russia has “cut off” all channels of communication.

He tried to call Valery Gerasimov, the army’s chief of staff before and after the occupation, but was refused. Meanwhile the combat capability, and prestige of the Russian armed forces has taken a toll since the start of the war in Ukraine, where a rapid occupation of Kiev, degraded into a host of logistical and strategic failures as well as operational shortcomings.

However, Bauer says NATO should not be complacent. “The Russians believed their folly for Ukraine… But it must be assumed that they would be properly prepared to attack NATO. “I do not think we will show wisdom by underestimating them” – he emphasizes./ bota.al

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