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Five countries in two days: Under the shadow of the Ukraine war, Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to Southeast Europe. He expects more willingness to compromise from Kosovo and Serbia.
During his trip to the Western Balkans, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) wants to bring the countries of the Western Balkans closer to the EU.
On Friday (June 10, 2022) Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz will embark on a two-day trip to Southeast Europe. The stations are the capitals Prishtina (Kosovo), Belgrade (Serbia), Skopje (Northern Macedonia) and Sofia (Bulgaria) as well as the metropolis of northern Greece Thessaloniki. The focus of his talks there will be the rapprochement of the Western Balkan countries with the EU, German Deputy Government Spokeswoman Christiane Hoffmann said in Berlin on Wednesday (08.06.2022). From the Federal Government’s point of view, the EU perspective is important not only for security in the region, but for the EU as a whole. But the EU enlargement process has so far failed – not only because of internal inconsistencies in the EU, but also because of unresolved issues in the region itself.
Escalation potential
The importance of the region for security in Europe is evident from the first stop of the German Chancellor in Pristina. On June 22, 2022, the German Bundestag will vote on the further extension of the mandate for German participation in the KFOR defense force, which has ensured peace there since the end of the war in Kosovo in 1999. During his visit, Olaf Scholz will also visit the Bundeswehr soldiers stationed there.
Their presence is desirable and necessary. Because the situation, especially in northern Kosovo, is considered fragile. The reciprocity measures imposed by the Kosovo government are considered by Germany to be “substantially justified”, as stated in the government’s request for an extension of the Bundeswehr’s mandate. But they are constantly causing tensions with neighboring Serbia. As in September 2021, when Kosovo decided to no longer recognize Serbian license plates and Serbia significantly increased its military presence in the border area with Kosovo. An “excessive reaction”, the German government judges
The meeting between Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, which was organized by Chancellor Scholz and chaired by EU Special Envoy Miroslav Lajcak in Berlin on May 4, 2022, did not lead to any rapprochement between the parties.
Dialogue without progress
The EU-facilitated dialogue on normalization of relations between the two countries since 2011 is also making little progress. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who will continue his trip to Belgrade on Friday, has tried to bring the parties to the table. In early May, he hosted a meeting in Berlin between EU Special Representative Miroslav Lajčák, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. However, nothing came out of it except a photograph during a dinner.
In Pristina and Belgrade, the German chancellor is expected to ask both sides for a willingness to compromise: “, He said in the joint press conference with the Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti before the meeting in question, on May 4 in Berlin. “This includes what Germany has done for a long time recently, namely the recognition of Kosovo,” the chancellor added.
Prime Minister Kurti insists that Kosovo be treated as an independent and equal state in the negotiations with Serbia. Recognition should be at the center of negotiations, not at the end of them, Kurti said recently in an interview with DW.
President Vuiqiiq, for his part, during his oath for the second term as president, on May 31, 2022, promised that he would return Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia. However, he seems to have begun to prepare his citizens for the necessity of reaching a solution for Kosovo: “From Berlin will come difficult messages that we will not like,” Vucic told Serbian state television. Monday, June 6th.
President Aleksandar Vucic is preparing his people for “difficult messages from Berlin”. Here at the press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin
One of these “difficult messages from Germany” is expected to be the issue of EU sanctions against Russia. Serbia is the only country in the Western Balkans that has not joined the sanctions.
So far, the Social Democrat chancellor has been reticent with his criticisms, focusing on Serbia’s constructive role in condemning Russian aggression in UN resolutions and noting that despite the lifting of sanctions, Serbia has stood by of the EU.
The other two parties in the ruling coalition speak a clearer language. “Anyone who wants to become an EU member must support sanctions,” said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who belongs to the Green party, “said Baerbock in Brussels in early April.
“Funding to freeze” – In an interview with DW, FDP expert on the Balkans Renata Alt calls for clear conditions for Serbia, as a candidate for membership.
The chairwoman of the Bundestag Committee on Human Rights, Liberal MP Renata Alt, who recognizes the Western Balkans from her previous role as rapporteur for the FDP parliamentary group, is urging Chancellor Scholz to put more pressure on Serbia. “If Serbia continues with this fluctuating policy and moves further and further away from democracy, I suggest freezing funds and eventually suspending EU membership negotiations,” Alt told DW.
Intermediate models
But it is not just the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo that is becoming an obstacle to progress in the Balkan EU membership process. Bulgaria is currently blocking the opening of negotiations with Northern Macedonia, and with it Albania, is holding the process hostage. Scholz will address the issue Saturday during visits to Skopje and Sofia. The chances of success are considered slim.
According to observers, if the chancellor fails to enable the Western Balkan countries to make progress in the membership process, the disappointment in the region will be enormous. There are many voices that in the meantime propose alternative intermediate models, such as the associate membership to keep the region connected to the EU.
The CDU MP in the German Bundestag, Knut Abraham, told DW that models should also be considered according to which these countries adopt parts of European legislation, especially in relation to the internal market, and thus they can benefit from the economic advantages of “Europe has not yet become a full member.”
We need to think of the new models as intermediate steps for the full membership of the Western Balkan countries, says CDU foreign policy expert Knut Abraham.
There is no information whether the chancellor will discuss this idea at his dinner with all the representatives of the six countries of the Western Balkans and Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey in Thessaloniki, where they have already confirmed their participation Vucic and Rama and Kosovo, after will likely be represented by Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani. Scholz is expected to discuss the legacy of former Chancellor Merkel in the Balkans over the Berlin Process. / DW
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