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The structure of the population in the country is undergoing fundamental structural changes, influenced by many factors such as high emigration, population aging and the last two years the consequences that the Covid pandemic had on health 19.
INSTAT recently reported that the population of Albania on January 1, 2022 is 2,793,592 inhabitants, a decrease of 1.3%, compared to January 1, 2021. This is the fifth consecutive year of contraction in the number of inhabitants.
In total, the country had 36 thousand fewer inhabitants in January 2022, compared to the same month a year earlier.
But the most worrying development is the fact that most of this contraction has been affected by the decline in the number of the 20-24 age group, which is the most vital and productive part of the population. This age group marked a decline of 15 thousand people, affecting almost half of the contraction of the total population of the country. The decline in value is almost three times higher than other age groups, an indirect factor that the highest effect was not given by natural developments of the population, but emigration. (see graph: Annual population change, by age group).
Compared to 2001, the 20-24 age group has dropped by almost 12%. The highest contraction of the population of young people aged 20-24 has started after 2015, in line with the return of the immigration cycle, which was reflected in the increase in asylum applications.
In 2021, this age group accounted for 7.2% of the total, up from 9% in 2004. (see graph: Performance of the population aged 20-24).
Declining birth rates and high emigration among young people are reducing the weight of the population at a young age and in contrast is increasing it at a more mature and older age.
INSTAT data, processed by “Monitor” show that half of the population at a young age (0-39 years) is shrinking rapidly. otherwise she is growing over the age of 40 years (see graph: Population performance, by two age groups, 0-49 and over 40 years old)
At the end of 2021, the population under the age of 39 accounted for 52% of the total, up from 68% in 2001, shrinking by almost 16 percentage points.
This structural change is bringing many consequences, which are more sensitive in two main directions:
-First in labor productivity and labor availability. Many enterprises today complain that they are not finding labor, especially young people. The latter are prone to emigration.
-Secondly, the effect on the pension scheme, with fewer young people contributing insurance, used to pay pensions. The number of retirees is growing rapidly due to the aging population. In 2021, according to INSTAT, the population over 65 accounted for 15.7% of the total, up from only 7.4% in 2001, with almost doubling the weight.
As seen in the graph “Annual population change, by age group”, the highest population growth was in the age group of 60 to 74 years, putting pressure on the pension scheme.
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