Russia-Ukraine tensions, what is happening, where and why

The British Prime Minister said that Europe is “on the brink of collapse”, citing a US warning that Russia could attack Ukraine in the next 48 hours. But he said there was still time for Putin to “withdraw.”

In an orchestrated appearance for television cameras, the Russian Foreign Minister argued that opportunities for talks have not been exhausted. This seemed intentional to send the message that Putin himself believes that hopes for a diplomatic solution have not yet faded. Here is a look at what is happening, where and why:

WHAT IS THE MESSAGE FROM RUSSIA?

The Kremlin signaled on Monday that it was ready to continue talks with the West over its security grievances, which led to the current crisis, offering hope that Russia might not invade Ukraine within days, as growing fears have been raised by Western officials. .

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a meeting with President Putin that Moscow should hold more talks with the US and its allies, despite their refusal to consider key Russian demands.

Mr Lavrov said the talks “could not go on indefinitely, but I would suggest that they continue and expand at this stage.” He noted that Washington has offered to negotiate restrictions on missile deployment in Europe, military exercises and other confidence-building measures.

Asked by President Putin if the continuation of diplomatic efforts made sense, Lavrov replied that the possibilities for talks “are far from exhausted” and he proposed the resumption of negotiations. He said his ministry would not allow the US and its allies to thwart Russia’s key demands.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN UKRAINE?

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz conveyed a message of solidarity in Kiev, telling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are not negotiable.

Chancellor Scholz, whose visit came ahead of a meeting with President Putin in Moscow on Tuesday, called for “clear steps to reduce the escalation of current tensions” from Russia. He thanked the Ukrainian government for its “prudent and restrained response to a very serious and threatening situation”.

Chancellor Scholz noted that NATO and the United States have made proposals to Moscow that Germany supports, “and we now expect a response, a response to them from Russia.” He urged Russia to accept offers of dialogue.

The German chancellor said in the event of a military escalation, “we are ready for very broad and effective sanctions in consultation with our allies” and that “we know what we will do” if Russia violates Ukraine’s territorial integrity again.

Once again, he did not elaborate on what exactly these measures would be. As expected, there was no change in Germany’s position in refusing to join some allies in supplying Ukraine with deadly weapons.

President Zelensky said tensions over his country’s future posed “an unprecedented challenge for Europe and the world.”

“The future of the European security architecture is being decided in Ukraine today – of which our state is a part,” said President Zelensky.

WHEN CAN RUSSIA ATTACK?

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Europe is “on the brink of collapse”, citing a US warning that Russia could attack Ukraine in the next 48 hours. “But there is still time for President Putin to step down,” said Prime Minister Johnson. Mr Johnson called for a joint response from NATO.

He said that “the world should learn lessons from 2014”, when after the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the activity in eastern Ukraine, not enough was done to get rid of Russian gas and oil. He said Europe should move away from “Russian hydrocarbons” and reiterated its call for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany to be canceled.

Mr Johnson’s spokesman, Max Blain, declined to say whether the United Kingdom agreed with the United States that Wednesday was a possible date for a Russian attack on Ukraine. But he said “there is a strong possibility of an attack this week.” On the other hand, the head of the Swedish military, a non-NATO country, said that Russia has “all the necessary capacity along the Ukrainian border for a military operation.” “We do not rule anything out,” said General Michael Byden, head of the Swedish Armed Forces. “Whether it will happen today, Wednesday or a week later, we do not know.”

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE TALKS ARE NOT SUCCESSFUL?

Poland is preparing to accept Ukrainian refugees in the event of a Russian attack on its neighbor. But the Polish government hopes the worst-case scenario can be avoided.

Similar preparations are being made throughout the region, especially in the countries that share the border with Ukraine.

Poland, which has welcomed large numbers of Ukrainian economic migrants in recent years, especially after Russia’s incursions into Ukraine in 2014, has been making plans for weeks to accept refugees if that happens, said Marcin Przydacz, deputy minister of Outside.

HOW ARE THE ACTIONS OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE EVALUATED?

President Zelensky won deep in the 2019 elections. As a young man in politics, making an almost impossible offer to take office, he vowed to talk to Russia-backed rebels in the east who were struggling with Ukrainian forces and would take steps towards resolving the conflict.

But President Zelenskyy is seeing his once-huge support weaken as Ukraine faces fears of a Russian attack that could invade not only rebel regions but possibly the rest of the country as well.

To make matters worse, the former president, whom Zelensky defeated in 2019, has bravely returned to the country to face charges of treason and sparked opposition to him. Analysts suggest that Moscow is seeking to strengthen support among pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine and that the gathering of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border is partly aimed at destabilizing the country’s political life.VOA

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