Russian attacks on Ukraine, how far we are from a world war

When Russian missiles hit a military training center near Lviv a week and a half ago, killing 35 people, the rumble was heard all the way to Poland. Only 20 kilometers to the west, and the missiles would have hit Polish territory – a NATO country. An attack on one member is considered an attack on everyone, as agreed by NATO partners. US President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, warned that the United States would “protect every inch of NATO territory.”

Fear of nuclear weapons

Experts still do not want to talk about a third world war, but the fear of such an escalation has long existed. “The idea of ​​sending our weapons of war, our troops, our planes, our pilots and our tanks out there now – let’s face it – is World War III,” President Biden said recently. NATO’s readiness to intervene directly in the war in Ukraine, for example with a no-fly zone, is correspondingly low. The risk of a confrontation with Russia would be very great.

But what if it happens? Such a world war could be waged “conventionally”, that is, without nuclear weapons. But the risk would be great to use nuclear-guided missiles as well. The Western Alliance would react differently to so-called tactical nuclear weapons, which would be used in some war zones, with low or medium explosive power, outside NATO, than to deploy so-called strategic nuclear missiles. These have the potential to turn today’s world into rubble.

Putin’s roulette

Would Putin go that far? While some experts see the nuclear threat as a bluff, others believe the former KGB agent may even have the ambition to bring the world to a nuclear end. “Putin must not forget that NATO is also a nuclear alliance,” former Polish Foreign and Defense Minister Radek Sikorski told DW. “He knows that a nuclear war can not survive. “The day Putin took up nuclear weapons would be the last day of his life,” Sikorski argued.

The German-American historian Conrad Jarausch compares Putin’s strategy to that of Adolf Hitler in 1939. Putin fomented a regional conflict and warned the West that “if it reacts en masse, World War III will break out.”

However, such an automatism does not exist, says Stefan Garsztecki, a historian at the University of Technology in Chemnitz, Germany. “There is no need for further escalation if NATO clearly shows it where the red line is,” he said. “If there is a risk that Kiev and Odessa will return to European Aleppo, then we will have to talk more about a no-fly zone.”

China’s role is crucial

An initially regional conflict that erupts into a global conflict has occurred frequently in history, says Sven Lange, commander of the Bundeswehr Center for Military History in Potsdam. World War I is the best example of this.

For a world war, “Russia’s contribution will not be decisive,” says Lange, but how the “two global powers – the US and China – will be positioned.” In his view, Beijing currently has no interest in the war. “I believe there will be support for Russia from China, but it will not be massive enough to lead to an immediate conflict with the United States.”

Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, nervousness is growing as the war approaches – with Russian airstrikes in western Ukraine as well. Even if NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg says “one for all, all for one”, the launch of hypersonic missiles not far from the NATO border raises fears. US President Joe Biden’s visit to Poland this week aims to calm the alliance’s eastern wing.

Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe, there are growing calls for NATO to supply Ukraine with fighter jets, to close its airspace, and for Germany to block energy supplies from Russia, so that Putin is left without money for the war. The further east, the greater the fear: “We are all already in this war,” Ukrainian writer Katya Petrowskaya said recently on the second German channel, ZDF. “If you have learned from history, you know that there is no way to stop this war if we do not act radically.”

In Germany, such proposals are expected mainly by cold-blooded analysis. The most important thing is to “permanently limit the conflict in space and time in order to prevent its mass spread,” says researcher Herfried Münkler from Humboldt University in Berlin. Munkler opposes Katya Petrovskayan: “This may be understandable given the horrors in Ukraine, but it is an incentive for a major war,” he said. There is currently no responsible alternative to current NATO actions, Münkler told DW.

Memories of 1939

Some historians are already drawing parallels with World War II, particularly in relation to Putin’s actions. Popular rallies aimed at legitimizing the annexation of Austria or the occupation of Poland by the Red Army on September 17, 1939, are “the same patterns that Putin repeated in Crimea and eastern Ukraine,” says Stefan Garsztecki of Chemnitz University of Technology. “Hitler pursued a policy of reviewing the Paris Peace Order of 1938, and Putin is trying in a similar way to reconsider the consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Herfried Münkler.

Polish politician Sikorski even makes a direct comparison between Putin and Hitler: “Putin is like Hitler before the Holocaust, but after the invasion of Poland in 1939,” he says. Münkler does not recommend making such comparisons with the National Socialist dictator, “because clarity is created where there is none.” “Hitler was driven by a racist ideology, which is not currently seen in Putin,” he said.

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