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In parallel with the attacks and bombings in Ukraine, Russia is also in the process of negotiating with Kiev – reportedly to end the war it has launched itself.
The first round of talks was held on February 28, four days after the Russian state launched its unprovoked invasion of its neighbor.
Since then, groups of negotiators have met several times. The main points of discussion for now are three: the ceasefire, the end of all hostilities and the humanitarian corridors. But there has been no noticeable progress in them.
According to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskytalks are now taking place on a daily basis, although sometimes in circumstances, according to him, very difficult.
“We are continuing to work at various levels to push Russia towards peace and towards the end of this terrible war. Representatives of Ukraine are taking part in the negotiations every day, in very difficult and sometimes scandalous circumstances. “But we are moving forward, step by step,” said Zelensky, who also requested a meeting with the Russian president. Vladimir Putin.
The latter did not respond positively, but expressed readiness for talks on certain topics.
“Problems that are essential for Russia, for our future, such as the neutrality of Ukraine, the demilitarization and denationalization of Ukraine, we have been and are ready to discuss in talks,” he said.
Putin has said he has launched a special operation in Ukraine – as he called the war – to demilitarize and denationalize Ukraine, even though there are no Nazis in its neighbor. Putin has also opposed Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership, claiming – without any evidence – that further NATO expansion to the east would pose a threat to Russian security.
Moscow says it is ready to stop fighting if Kiev meets its demands. According to Moscow, Ukraine should stop all military actions; must declare neutrality or provide assurances that it will not join any political or military bloc in the future; must recognize that the annexed Crimean Peninsula is Russian territory and that the eastern Donbas region is independent.
The most difficult part of the talks, according to an analysis made by the Associated Press news agency, are the territories. Ukrainian officials have said they will never accept Russian annexation of Crimea or the independence of the separatist Donbas region.
In terms of neutrality, Zelensky seems to have backed away from what until recently was seen as Ukraine’s main ambition. In a statement issued on March 16, he said that Ukraine’s application for NATO membership is not realistic and that his country should count on itself and the help of partners.
“It is clear that Ukraine is not a member of NATO. We understand. We have heard for years about open doors, but we have already heard that we will not be able to join them. “This is the truth and we have to accept it,” Zelensky said.
Some rounds of talks have taken place in Belarus – Russia’s close ally, while others have been held via video link.
The Russian team is led by the president’s adviser, Vladimir Medinsky, while the Ukrainian team is led by the presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak. Turkey is trying to bring the two sides closer, as is Israel.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on March 20 that Ukraine and Russia were close to reaching an agreement on “critical issues” and hoped there would be a ceasefire if the two sides did not withdraw from the progress made so far.
Cavusoglu did not provide details on what critical issues he was talking about, but some analysts are not optimistic that the talks could yield results – at least not soon.
Brueckner: Russia is not sincere in talks
Speaking of Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Expose program, Ulrich Brueckner, professor of political science at Stanford University in Berlin, says there is no reason to believe that Russia is sincere in its efforts to find a peaceful solution. He recalls that Russia has denied until the last moment the plans for the invasion of Ukraine.
“It is important and I am happy that we have reached the point of negotiations. But other than this positive result, I do not expect much from them. These are not negotiations between equals, or any form of an international agreement on something. “In these negotiations, the rapist talks to his victim.”
“There can be many reasons why someone is willing to sit at the negotiating table. “But what makes it difficult to predict is that we do not know what the objectives of this invasion are,” said Brueckner.
In addition to Putin’s stated intentions for “demilitarization and denationalization of Ukraine,” Brueckner says the Russian leader may have bigger geopolitical plans. According to him, at this stage of the war, no one can say with certainty how events will unfold, neither at the negotiating table, nor on the battlefield.
“As we have seen in the past, Putin never gives up. If it comes down to loss, it escalates [situatën]. But, that has not happened since [Putin] to withdraw, saying: ‘I assessed it differently, it is not possible to achieve a quick victory, return to our territory and start the diplomatic solution’. This is not his style. This has not happened in Syria. “This has not happened in Chechnya and we can not expect it to be different in the case of Ukraine.”
Lutsevych: Ukraine still believes it can win the war
Orysia Lutsevych, from the Chatham Institute in London, Program for Ukraine, tells Exposa that Russia’s approach to the negotiations is, at the moment, neither serious nor credible.
“I think Putin is using the negotiations to convey his threats, while he uses the military campaign to intimidate the opponent. That’s why we see the use of supersonic missiles, we see reckless bombing nearby nuclear power plants in Zaporizhiasee wild sieges of cities“All of this is intended to force Ukraine to surrender, to capitulate and to obey Putin’s ultimatums,” Lutsevych said.
She adds that even Ukraine still believes it can win the war and that it is not the time to make concessions, in the face of Putin’s demands.
“Ukraine believes it can fight. Its armed forces are performing well. Society is mobilized and if you look at public opinion polls, 80% [e të anketuarve] believe that Ukraine will win. “So why give in to Putin’s demands?” Says Lutsevych.
A poll published on March 20 by the Ukrainian research institute Rating Group also found that 74 percent of respondents support direct talks between the president of Ukraine and the president of Russia.
Nearly half of respondents said they hoped the war would end in the coming weeks, while nearly a quarter said they believed the conflict would last for months.
Lutsevych, from the Chatham Institute, predicts three scenarios for fight:
“The war can end in different ways. Russia may take the territory and Ukraine never recognizes such a thing. This creates a stalemate, similar to what has existed since the annexation of Crimea. This is one scenario. Next – God forbid – Kiev falls. Putin unleashes a large military power in Ukraine, takes over the political capital, Ukraine collapses and there is no need for an agreement. “
“According to the third scenario, the two sides can not win and they decide to negotiate. “But we have not reached this point yet,” said Lutsevych.
Analysts who have spoken out against the Exposition say there are worrying signs that Russia is planning to intensify attacks and bombings in several Ukrainian cities to gain more leverage in the negotiations.
Russia has not said much about its military losses in Ukraine, but NATO said on March 23 that it could have lost up to 15,000 troops in a month. There are no independently confirmed loss figures from either party.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has asked Pope Francis to take a mediating role in the talks between Kiev and Moscow.
The head of the Holy See described the war as “meaningless massacre” and “unjustified”.
“Rivers of blood and tears are flowing in Ukraine. “This is not just a military operation, but a war that brings death, destruction and misery.”
“War is madness, please stop it,” the pope called.
The Russian military said on March 25 that the first phase of its military campaign in Ukraine was over and that it would now focus on the eastern Donbas region.
In the first month of the war alone, more than 3.5 million refugees fled Ukraine, and thousands died in the violence.al
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