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Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Baltic states have called for increased defense capacity in the region, a capacity that must adapt to the circumstances created by the Russian Federation.
While there now seems to be a growing awareness that Moscow aggression has changed the security order, and that NATO’s position needs to be adapted to the new circumstances, no final decisions have yet been made before the alliance meeting in Madrid. in June, where leaders decide what to do concretely on NATO’s east flank.
However, until the Madrid summit, there are still some concerns and weaknesses that have not been addressed, and which the Baltic countries would like to address. Although Russia showed its aggressive intentions with its brief wars in 2008 and 2014, many experts and politicians failed to acknowledge how far President Vladimir Putin was ready to go to fulfill his imperialist vision.
But the new war against Ukraine has put an end to such naive approaches. The regime in Russia is clearly willing and willing to launch a conventional unprovoked and comprehensive war against its neighbors, despite heavy losses on the battlefield, and devastating sanctions against its economy.
The current war may last for a long time, and the current Russian regime may survive even longer. Over time, Moscow will make up for its losses, rebuild its battlefields, repair and restore its military equipment to a state of war.
This means that as long as the aggressive Putinist regime continues to stand, the threat it poses will remain, and will have to be addressed by NATO. The northern part of NATO’s eastern flank – the eastern front – has some internal weaknesses, which cannot be easily addressed by the member states themselves.
After allowing its territory to be used in military activities, Belarus has become an ally of Russia in this war. Its involvement has changed the situation in the northern part of NATO’s eastern flank, namely Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland.
This is because Russian troops are currently stationed in Belarus, and will probably remain on the border with NATO.
One of the main weaknesses in this region is the so-called Suvałki Corridor, a narrow area between Lithuania and Poland, surrounded by Belarus and the Russian territory of Kaliningrad. If Baltic territory is invaded by Russia, or the Baltic Sea is disputed, the Suvałki Corridor is the strategic supply line for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
But also for Finland, if it joins NATO. These weaknesses can not be easily remedied and while doing many things themselves, the Baltic states want a political decision to be reached, to guarantee that in the event of an attack, these territories will be properly protected, and just like any other part of alliance territory.
Fortunately, the US president and the leaders of several other NATO countries have addressed this concern with a commitment to “protect every inch of NATO territory”, providing not only a promise but also a roadmap for a political consensus on with the NATO stance.
And once adopted, this stance should provide concrete military advice on how this promise and commitment will be put into practice. But as with all important decisions within the alliance, political decision must come first.
Once without a political consensus, some military advisers may hesitate, seeing the defense of the Baltic states as too costly or as technically too difficult.
Recall a little the example of West Berlin. The sensational statement by then-US President John F. Kennedy “I am a Berliner!” Made it clear to both the Allies and the Soviets that this small territory – an island in the communist “sea” – would be defended with all the tools and capabilities that the western alliance had.
That historic statement was followed by military advice on how to defend West Berlin. The Baltic states could be the “West Berlin” of the 21st century. But the practical implementation of this commitment must begin now and without any further delay.
First and foremost, the key decision must be made that the Baltic states, and especially the Suvałki Corridor, will be protected by all means at the disposal of the alliance. And that the Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians will be joined by other NATO allies from the first minute of any possible aggression.
Moreover, we believe that it is necessary – for our own security, unity and security – for the alliance to increase its presence in the Baltic states. This should include at least the full range of air defense capabilities, including missile and fighter jet defense; a permanent NATO base the size of a brigade.
And if Sweden and Finland are to continue their plan to join NATO, immediate plans are needed for a new, integrated Nordic-Baltic defense position, taking into account both regional air defense and the presence of NATO enlargement in the Baltic Sea.
Finally, it should be clear that no Baltic country is seeking free security at the expense of the entire alliance. Lithuania has already decided to spend at least 2.5 percent of GDP on defense. The funds have already been disbursed. Both Latvia and Estonia will achieve this goal within this year. The Baltic countries are doing their part. Now it’s up to our allies to do theirs./bota.al
Note: Gabrielius Landsbergis, is the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.
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