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US intelligence believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is likely to become “more unpredictable and escalating” in the coming months.
The country’s director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, gave a bleak and uncertain picture of the next phase of Putin’s two-month occupation.
“The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will resort to more drastic means, including the imposition of martial law, the reorientation of industrial production, or potentially escalating military action to free up the resources needed to achieve his goals as the conflict drags on, or if he thinks Russia is losing in Ukraine “said Haines.
However, Haines said they did not believe Putin would turn to the use of nuclear weapons if he did not feel there was an existential threat to Russia.
The intelligence community believes Putin is preparing for a protracted conflict and that his goals extend far beyond the eastern Donbas region, where his military is currently focused after being repulsed by Kiev in the early weeks of the war.
“Next month of fighting will be important as Russia’s efforts to revive their efforts. “But even if they are successful, we are not sure that the war in Donbas will end the war.”
In the near future, Putin wants to occupy the two eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, control the city of Kherson and potentially extend a land bridge to Transnistria, a separatist region of Moldova where Russian troops are currently stationed, Haines said.
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