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After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it hoped to invade its neighbor in a swift operation that would last a few days or a few weeks. Many Western analysts predicted the same scenario.
Three months after the start of the conflict, Moscow seems to be stuck in an endless war on the horizon and with little success on the battlefield.
The powerful forces of Russian President Vladimir Putin did not score a quick victory and failed to find a way that would allow the Kremlin to take control of most of Ukraine and establish a puppet government in Kiev.
In fact, the opposite happened. Russian troops were trapped on the outskirts of Kiev and other major cities following heavy resistance from Ukrainian forces. The convoy of the Russian army got stuck on the long roads. The troops ran out of supplies and gasoline, easily targeting them.
A little over a month after the attack, Russia admitted that it had failed in its attack and withdrew troops from areas near Kiev. Moscow has announced the relocation of its operation to the eastern industrial region of Donbas, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.
Of course, Russia has taken control of a significant part of the territory around the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed eight years ago. It has also achieved full secession of Ukraine from the Sea of Azov, finally securing full control of the key port of Mariupol. The siege of the city prevented some of the Russian troops from fighting in other areas as they faced heavy resistance from Ukrainian forces.
But even the offensive in the east seems to have stalled as the West continues to supply Ukraine with weapons by strengthening its military.
Russian artillery and fighter jets mercilessly strike Ukrainian positions in an attempt to break through the defenses created during the separatist conflict. Moscow has made little progress, which has highlighted the insufficient number of Russian troops and the Ukrainian resistance.
Recently, Russia lost hundreds of members and dozens of military vehicles as it tried to cross a river to build a bridge.
“The Russians are still far behind the target we believe they wanted to be when they started this revitalizing effort in the eastern part of the country.” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Friday, adding that small towns and villages in the Donbas were changing the force that controlled them every day.
Elsewhere in Ukraine, Russian forces have targeted Western arms shipments, ammunition and fuel depots and vital infrastructure in hopes of weakening Kiev’s military and economy.
But in an attempt to gain ground, Russian forces have also mercilessly bombed and besieged several cities. Recently, Ukrainian authorities said that after the Russian bombing, 200 bodies were found in a collapsed building in Mariupol.
The Kremlin appears to have an ambitious goal of separating Ukraine from the Black Sea coast to the Romanian border, a move that would give Moscow a land corridor in Moldova’s separatist region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are stationed.
But Russia seems to know that this goal cannot be achieved given its limited forces.
“They are increasingly realizing that they can not necessarily do everything, certainly not right away.” says Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who runs the strategic consulting firm Sibylline.
Moscow’s losses have forced the Kremlin to rely more and more on hastily formed units in the Donbas, which can bring only small gains, he says.
“It’s a steady decline towards smaller goals that Russia can really achieve.” said Mr. Crump. “To a large extent, they have actually reduced their strategy to better adapt their skills on the ground.”
The lack of Russian resources was highlighted last week by a sudden withdrawal from areas near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city that has been bombed since the start of the war.
Apparently, some of those forces were relocated to the Donbas, but that was not enough to show superiority on the battlefield.
“They had to reduce the troops they had around Kharkiv, simply because they were trying to maintain a larger front line with far fewer troops.” says Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at St. Louis University. Andrews in Scotland. Fighting in the Donbas has increasingly turned into artillery duels and “can continue for quite some time without much movement on the front lines,” he said.
“So it will mainly be a positional battle.” Mr O’Brien added, “Any party that ‘can withstand the blows’ will be successful.
Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to have a steady supply of Western weapons, including long-range US howitzer and drones, as well as tanks from Poland and other heavy equipment that are immediately sent to the battlefield. ./voa
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