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Will there be an endless war that cannot be won in Europe? This is the scenario they fear and for which NATO leaders are preparing, as Russia’s war in Ukraine already in its third month is giving little sign that there will be a decisive military victory by either side and does not appear have solutions on the horizon.
The possibility of a stalemate is fueling concerns that Ukraine could remain a deadly battleground in Europe and a source of continental and global instability for months, or even years to come.
Energy and food security are the most pressing concerns, but massive Western support for Ukraine, while the world has not yet recovered from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and is facing the effects of climate change, could further weaken the global economy. And if Russia decides to escalate the conflict, the risk of a wider conflict increases.
The United States and its allies are constantly supplying deadly weapons to Ukraine to help it in the war. While most analysts say Kiev is least resisting, the flow of supplies must continue if allies want to uphold President Volodomyr Zelenskyy’s promise of victory, or at least to curb or repel Moscow’s progress.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not signaled any readiness to intensify aggression with either general mobilization of troops or the use of unconventional weapons, nor has he shown any signs of withdrawal. Nor has President Zelenskyy, who says Ukraine will not only defeat the current Russian aggression but regain control of Crimea and other areas it has occupied or controlled since 2014, shown no signs of retreating.
“It’s very difficult to imagine a negotiated solution at this point,” said Ian Kelly, a retired veteran diplomat who served as ambassador to the United States in Georgia, another former Soviet republic to which Russia has territorial claims.
“Neither side is ready to stop the war and perhaps the most likely outcome is a war that will last several years. “Ukraine would be an open wound in the middle of Europe.”
“There is no question that Ukraine will not withdraw. “They think they will win.”
On the other hand, he adds, despite miscalculations by the Russian president about Ukraine’s strength and willingness to resist or the unity and determination of NATO allies, he can not accept defeat or a scenario where he does not claim that it has succeeded.
“It would be political suicide for Putin to step down,” Kelly said.
U.S. officials, starting with President Joe Biden, seem to agree with the assessment, despite Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin commenting after a visit to Kiev last month that Washington’s goal is not just to help Ukraine defend itself, but to ” weaken ”Russia to the point where it no longer poses a threat.
Putin “has no way out now and I’m trying to figure out what to do in these circumstances,” President Biden said Monday after signing a law similar to a World War II-era law to facilitate the delivery of military equipment. in Ukraine and called on Congress to approve a $ 40 billion military and humanitarian aid package for Ukraine. The House of Representatives approved the package Tuesday, and the Senate is expected to approve it within the week.
So what should be done? French President Emmanuel Macron has given priority to a possible negotiated solution that would not humiliate either Russia or Ukraine.
“Tomorrow we will have to build peace, let us never forget that,” Mr Macron said on Monday. “We have to bring Ukraine and Russia to the table. The end of the discussion and negotiations will be decided by Ukraine and Russia. “But it will not be done by ignoring, excluding or humiliating each other.”
US officials are not so sure, though they acknowledge that the final outcome is in Ukraine’s hands.
“Our strategy is for Ukraine to emerge victorious,” State Department spokeswoman Ned Price said this week. “Ukraine will do this at the negotiating table. “Our goal is to strengthen Ukraine’s position at that negotiating table as we continue to impose increasing costs on the Russian Federation.”
But uncertainty over the form of a “victory” for Ukraine has alarmed officials in several European capitals, especially those in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which are NATO members on the border with Russia, and particularly concerned about Moscow’s future intentions.
For the Baltic states and other countries on the east side of NATO, the threat is real and memories of Soviet occupation and rule remain fresh. If Russia makes concessions to Ukraine, it would only encourage the Russian president to move further west, they say.
“To be honest, we are still not talking about what the end of the game will be like,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told the Associated Press in an interview Monday. He added that any territorial concessions in Ukraine would lead to a world where the “rule-based order” is replaced by a “jungle-based order”.
Mr Landsbergis suggested that Western countries say publicly what they would consider a success. “We have to say what would we consider a victory, a real victory? What would be the scenario we would like? ”
Lithuania’s foreign minister has been open to calls for the ouster of President Putin as Russia’s leader, going far beyond the position of the United States and that of other NATO leaders. He says regime change in Moscow is the only way to safeguard European and Western security in the long run.
“From our position it is much easier to say that there should be regime change in Russia, so we have been quite open about that,” he said. “It may be much harder for the United States to speak openly about this, but at some point we have to discuss it because it’s something very important.” / VOA
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