War at the crucial stage, experts: In the first stage the Russian operation failed

“The first phase of the war did not go well for Russia. What was planned, namely a change of government, a rapid progress in the government area in Kiev was not achieved. Instead there were huge losses. It can be thought, that up to a third of the ground troops that were at war are no longer capable of war. Probably because such a strong resistance was not intended, and that the Ukrainians would fight with such homogeneity. Lessons are now being learned from this.

Russia has decided on a central command post for operations in the East, which is presented as the second phase. Which means that the troops are concentrating on a goal that is probably achievable, the taking of the border areas of Luhansk and Donetsk and maybe even further. Russia is now concentrating all the troops it had in Ukraine. “They have also chosen a territory that is suitable for tank operations,” the expert told DW.

Richter explains that the area south of Kharkiv, between Isjum and Luhanks is a flat, open area with few obstacles. Which means that in the first attack Russian troops can really gain territory. But Ukraine has the means against this. They too have gathered forces there. Tactically they have acted wisely, with counterattacks from the wings of these forces and against the connecting logistical lines of the army.

Richter thinks that already the war in Ukraine may have entered a decisive stage. Especially for the Russian side, because if this does not lead to a military success, then the country has very few reserves that can be activated, he argues. At the moment there is no will from both sides, but especially from the Russian side to be seriously negotiated. But when martial law forces you, then there is more room for compromise. So it will be decided on the battlefield, if there is a readiness for reasonable and really serious negotiations, the expert continues.

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