Why Germany is so cautious in the Ukrainian crisis

Germany, which maintains a leading role in Europe and is an important member of NATO, is moving in a much more cautious way, causing quite a bit of unrest among the allies. The reasons for this great prudence are historical, political and economic.

So far, Germany has refused to sell arms to Ukraine, though it has not ruled out such an alternative in the future. For example, it did not authorize a shipment of nine abuses (parts of artillery) from Estonia to Ukraine on the pretext that they were of German origin. Other NATO countries have behaved differently.

The US State Department has given permission to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to send US-made missiles and other weapons to Ukraine. The United States shipped $ 200 million worth of weapons and ammunition between December and January, while the United Kingdom supplied 2,000 anti-tank missiles and is assisting in training the Ukrainian military.

On January 27, Germany offered to send 5,000 troops to Ukraine to help protect it from a possible Russian invasion. The mayor of Kiev, Vital Klitschko, ironically asked the journalist during an interview with Bild: What will Germany help us with? Sending pillows?

However, Ukraine seems concerned about Germany’s reluctance. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba accused Germany of “undermining the unity” of the anti-Russian bloc and encouraging a Russian attack on the country.

Kuleba is not the only one who has expressed doubts about the prudent attitude of the German government.

Laurynas Kasciunas, chairwoman of the Lithuanian Parliament’s National Security Committee, said: “Berlin is making a major strategic mistake and is jeopardizing its reputation.”

However, the apparent German inaction is motivated by a number of complex historical, political and economic reasons.

Both German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Chancellor Olaf Scholz justified the refusal to supply Ukraine with weapons, recalling that since 1971, Germany has been opposed to sending weapons to areas that are involved in or at risk of conflict. enter them.

This is a policy that many analysts associate with the traumas of World War II and the need for Germany not to harbor fears and suspicions among allies. In the context of other countries’ foreign policy, the supply of weapons to a country at risk of being attacked is seen as a precautionary measure. From the German point of view, this measure would only worsen the situation.

However, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Stefan Scheller, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations, stressed that “although arms exports to conflict zones are not part of the German foreign policy tradition, Germany sometimes, and for reasons “It has been flexible by its own standards, such as the supply of weapons to the Kurds fighting the Islamic State in Syria.”

Germany has also taken part in several military initiatives against Russia in recent years. It commands a NATO combat unit in Lithuania, helps monitor Baltic airspace for Russian intervention, and plans to send several fighter jets to Romania next month to do the same there.

However, current care makes sense for most of the coalition forces that make up the Schulz government.

The Greens are pacifists and have always expressed great concern about the arms trade, although part of the party, as well as a large part of the Liberals, another ruling party, want Germany to be more convincing against Russia.

Added to this is the fact that the SPD, the Social Democratic Party to which Schulz belongs and which won the majority in the 2021 federal elections, is very much inclined to its historical tradition of dialogue with Russia, which dates back to the time of the Soviet Union.

In addition, it is an important economic reason, along with Italy, Germany is the European country that depends most on Russian gas for its energy needs: 32% of the country’s natural gas comes from Russia. Germany is trying to have less and less need for non-renewable resources such as gas to produce energy, but for the moment a cut in Russian gas supply would put the country in big trouble.

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