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Ukrainian forces find it difficult to prevent Russian attacks on the center of the key battlefield in Severodonjeck, but Moscow still does not control the eastern city, regional officials say.
Severodonjecki and its twin city, Lisyansk, which lies across the Siverski Donjeck River, are strategically important in the Kremlin’s attempt to capture the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine. The ongoing war, from which Russian troops have so far taken control of large parts of Severodonjeck, could have a major impact on the next phase of the war.
Meanwhile, the influx of Western weapons into Kiev continues, but Ukrainian officials have warned that larger and more stable amounts of equipment are needed if they are to take advantage of Russian forces.
The United States and Britain have announced plans to provide Kiev with multiple missile launchers (MLRS), which can hit targets up to 50 miles away. Washington is also sending four M142 high-mobility missile systems (HIMARS), and London has agreed to send an unspecified number of M270 launch systems.
Arms deliveries have been welcomed from Kiev, but Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, says larger quantities, especially of missiles, are needed for his country’s forces to be able to repel troops. Russians who are making progress.
To learn more, Radio Free Europe spoke with George Barroso, an analyst at the Washington-based Institute for War Studies (ISW).
Radio Free Europe: The main battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces appears to be in Severodonjeck. How do you see the development of the battle and what should people know about this war?
George Barros: At the moment, the Kremlin has decided to prioritize other areas of the Ukrainian front line in order to give priority to the fight for Severodonjecki. This, in fact, is quite interesting, as up to this stage of the war, the Kremlin has had to reduce its objectives from time to time. On February 24, Putin’s initial goal was to invade Kiev and other major cities and bring about regime change within a very short period of time. This, of course, failed.
Then, in April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov formally redefined the intentions of the so-called Russian “special military operation” to occupy only the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This is interesting because if you look at how the front lines have changed over a month and a half or so, the Russians have made very little progress in the Donetsk region, they have focused almost exclusively on the Luhansk front line, which has to likely to be a culmination for the Russians in Severodonjeck. Although they have not been able to make much progress in that territory / space.
So even with these diminished targets, these small Russian advances over parts of a town or parts of a village that have spread over days and weeks show that the Russians are still very bad.
Current rating of [Institutit për Studimin e Luftës] is that if the Russians manage to end the occupation of Severodonjeck and then move on to capturing the entire Luhansk Oblast, the Russian campaign is likely to reach its peak and this will cause the Russians to take an operational pause to regroup their forces and reinforce what they control. At that point, Putin could try to play a game of ceasefire.
However, it is actually unclear to me whether the Russians will be able to capture the entire Luhansk region. Severodonjecku is the last important Ukrainian position held in the Luhansk region, which is located on the left bank of the river Siverski Donjeck. If the Russians capture it, it means that Russian forces will have to cross the river to reach the city of Lisyansk, where the Ukrainians have also prepared defensive positions.
Radio Free Europe: You said that the Russian army is not performing well, but is making some progress and gaining ground now that it is concentrating its forces. Do you see opportunities that they will be able to sustain these advances they are making?
George Barros: Moving forward, the main question is whether the Ukrainians will be able to actually carry out counter-offensive to liberate the territory that the Russians have taken since the beginning of the war.
I would say that we have not seen a Ukrainian ability to reclaim a territory that the Russians have been serious about defending. The territory that the Ukrainians recaptured in and around Kiev and Kharkiv in the north, is mainly because the Russians withdrew. It was reported on many occasions how Ukrainian forces liberated these territories, but in fact this was simply due to the withdrawal of the Russians and the entry of the Ukrainians.
I think the main thing is that it is much easier for the Russians to keep the territories they control than to get new territory. As well as vice versa for the Ukrainians, it is easier for them to defend the territory from Russian attacks, than to retake and liberate the territory controlled by Russia.
In the south, we see that the Russians, too, are setting conditions to hold those southern territories for a long time, and there are reports from the Ukrainian Government about the Russians creating fortifications, indicating that they intend to hold those territories for a long time.
Radio Free Europe: Are you saying then that Russia is actually capable of retaining some of these territories it has acquired?
George Barros: I do not want to imply that this is final, but what I mean is that to counter these Russian achievements, the Ukrainians must demonstrate new skills on the battlefield that we have not seen from them.
Radio Free Europe: Where does this lead us? You are describing something close to a stalemate or at least a slow exhaustion struggle. What is important to see in the coming weeks?
George Barros: I think the crucial factor to move forward is the extent to which Western governments provide Ukraine with weapons that meet the demands and needs of Ukrainian counterattacks.
We see leaks of different types of aid and equipment and that’s great. However, because of the way the Russians have pushed the front lines so far in some areas and the way the Russian supply lines work, the Ukrainians need better weapons with longer effective range to hit them. Russia logistics columns and to hit Russian ammunition depots.
So I see Western military aid as a crucial factor in ensuring that Putin is not able to really secure a stalemate or any other kind of situation, where he essentially closes all these advances that the Russians have made.
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