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When I was conducting operations on a destroyer equipped with Aegis missiles in the late 1980s, we were given a mission in the Arabian Gulf. While involved in the so-called Tanker War against Iraq, the Iranians were trying to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is of strategic importance to the region.
The rest of the world desperately needed to guarantee oil transportation from there, so it chose a verymdramatic: the escort of the convoys to the oil tankers, which carried the American flag, both when they were inside and when they came out of the strait.
Codenamed “Earnest Will”, the mission was generally successful. It lasted from the hot summer of 1987 until the fall of 1988. (Anyway at that time a great tragedy happened, the downing of an Iranian plane that caused 290 casualties).
“Earnest Will ”guaranteed the world’s regular supply of Arab oil and removed a strong blackmail mechanism from the Iranians. The cruiser I led, Valley Forge, had a successful deployment, and the mission had a significant impact on global geopolitics and energy supplies.
As the world today faces food shortages due to Ukraine’s illegal blockade by Russia, the US and its allies need to consider a similar response. Ukraine supplies a significant share of the global market for wheat (approximately 7 percent of global exports), sunflower oil and other important agricultural products.
Russia’s actions are not only illegal under international law. But they can cause famine in the Middle East and North Africa, which are already hotbeds of instability. Russian President Vladimir Putin owns control of the northern Black Sea coast, as his fleet, with more than a dozen large warships, is by far the most powerful in the region.
With 25,000 sailors and about 40 warships and seven submarines, the Russian fleet is still terrified even after the loss of its large ship “Moskva”, following a Ukrainian missile strike in April. While NATO allies Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have forces
capable in the Black Sea, Ukraine has virtually no navy fleet to challenge the Russian blockade.
Russian forces are positioned along its coast, so they are able to suffocate the Ukrainian economy, preventing its agricultural products from reaching their target markets. Moscow is using a strategy reminiscent of that used by the Union Army against the Agrarian South in the US Civil War.
Named the “Anaconda Plan”, after the giant snake that strangles its victims, the Union deprived the Confederacy of a strong currency by blocking its cotton exports. Some European countries somewhat challenged the naval blockade, but without any significant success.
Putin is copying part of Lincoln’s strategy today, and that has an effect. The Russians have now proposed negotiations to allow the export of Ukrainian grain in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions, which the US and its allies will not accept.
And that brings us to the idea of breaking the blockade through escorting merchant ships. The first challenge is the most obvious: Who will make the escort? This could be done under the auspices of the United Nations, by NATO or a coalition of countries ready to undertake what would be a provocative and dangerous mission.
The most likely approach would be for it to be led by the US, possibly including Great Britain and France, and perhaps the Black Sea countries, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. A second challenge will be mine clearance, as both Ukrainians and Russians have used them to try to control areas along the Ukrainian coast. NATO has a permanent forcerfor this purpose. This flotilla is today under the command of one of my successors as the supreme commander of the Allies, General Tod Wolters.
Third, countries that have undertaken any kind of blockade are obliged to cooperate with major shipping countries and international traders who own wheat and other products. This can be organized by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), based in London. Part of the UN, the IMO played a similar role in organizing international reactions to piracy off the coast of East Africa, during the time I was NATO commander.
Finally, the West must make Russia aware of the plan, and make sure that Moscow understands well that the coalition that will take over the operation will not tolerate any intervention, but on the other hand does not want to get into fights with the Russian fleet. Black Sea. Moscow is likely to get angry, but the possibility of it directly attacking NATO warships in international waters remains low. In the event that despite all the likelihood, the Russians would do some crazy action, they would face a proportionate use of force.
We are currently in a key moment of this conflict: eksgrain ports have been disrupted, the Ukrainian economy is in shambles, and the next global food crisis must be averted. Democratic allies need to explore a similar approach to Operation Earnest Will ”. We can not allow Putin to continue with his naval blockade.
Note: James Stavridis, retired U.S. Navy admiral–of, former supreme commander ofNATO allied troops në Europe./bota.al
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